Not just the picks.
A first-rounder should clear a higher bar than a sixth-rounder. The model compares every pick with its expected outcome before crediting a GM.
It’s draft night. One question.
Is [Brad Holmes] good at the draft?
A statistical look at every NFL general manager since 1980, controlling for pick position and era.
See the verdictOne verdict, visible evidence.
Opportunity, quality, and recognition each get a vote. The chart is evidence for an editorial verdict, not a wall of stats.
Newer portfolios stay humble.
The public score shrinks toward zero and the interval widens when a GM’s picks have had less time to reveal themselves.
THE HEADLINE RANKING
The Big Board
190 people · 209 GM-team careers
The board sorts people by published maturity-adjusted composite theta. A person with more than one front-office tenure appears once here; the underlying release retains all GM-team career rows.
Score is a cross-GM standard-deviation estimate; higher is better.
Bar is the published maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval.
Verdict is a five-tier relative label; maturity reflects how much player-career evidence is available.
Showing 190 of 190 people.
+1.26Elite**100% mature · Established
+0.97Elite**100% mature · Established
+0.80Elite**100% mature · Established
+0.78Elite**100% mature · Established
+0.76Elite**100% mature · Established
+0.72Elite**95% mature · Established
+0.71Elite**98% mature · Established
+0.70Elite**100% mature · Established
+0.69Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.67Elite**100% mature · Established
+0.67Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.66Elite**100% mature · Established
+0.61Elite*90% mature · Established
+0.60Elite**100% mature · Established
+0.59Elite**100% mature · Established
+0.58Elite38% mature · Established
+0.57Elite**100% mature · Established
+0.53Elite55% mature · Established
+0.50Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.49Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.47Elite75% mature · Established
+0.46Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.45Elite60% mature · Established
+0.41Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.41Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.40Elite54% mature · Established
+0.40Elite40% mature · Established
+0.40Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.38Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.38Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.38Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.37Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.36Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.36Elite62% mature · Established
+0.35Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.35Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.35Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.34Elite*100% mature · Established
+0.32Good79% mature · Established
+0.29Good71% mature · Established
+0.29Good100% mature · Established
+0.29Good49% mature · Established
+0.28Good35% mature · Established
+0.27Good92% mature · Established
+0.26Good100% mature · Provisional
+0.25Good100% mature · Provisional
+0.24Good100% mature · Established
+0.24Good77% mature · Established
+0.24Good100% mature · Established
+0.22Good100% mature · Established
+0.22Good100% mature · Provisional
+0.21Good76% mature · Established
+0.21Good98% mature · Established
+0.20Good100% mature · Established
+0.19Good100% mature · Established
+0.18Good100% mature · Established
+0.18Good100% mature · Established
+0.17Good100% mature · Established
+0.15Good100% mature · Provisional
+0.14Good56% mature · Established
+0.13Good100% mature · Established
+0.12Good100% mature · Established
+0.11Good84% mature · Established
+0.11Good100% mature · Established
+0.11Good100% mature · Provisional
+0.10Good100% mature · Established
+0.10Good97% mature · Established
+0.10Good100% mature · Established
+0.09Good18% mature · Provisional
+0.08Good100% mature · Established
+0.08Good100% mature · Provisional
+0.07Good100% mature · Established
+0.07Good100% mature · Provisional
+0.06Good40% mature · Established
+0.06Good100% mature · Provisional
+0.06Good100% mature · Provisional
+0.05Average19% mature · Provisional
+0.04Average100% mature · Provisional
+0.04Average100% mature · Established
+0.04Average34% mature · Provisional
+0.02Average100% mature · Provisional
+0.02Average76% mature · Provisional
+0.02Average13% mature · Provisional
+0.02Average21% mature · Provisional
+0.01Average34% mature · Provisional
+0.01Average18% mature · Provisional
+0.01Average25% mature · Provisional
+0.00Average100% mature · Established
-0.00Average81% mature · Established
-0.00Average13% mature · Provisional
-0.00Average13% mature · Provisional
-0.01Average100% mature · Established
-0.01Average13% mature · Provisional
-0.01Average100% mature · Established
-0.02Average100% mature · Established
-0.02Average31% mature · Provisional
-0.03Average43% mature · Provisional
-0.03Average34% mature · Provisional
-0.03Average91% mature · Established
-0.04Average45% mature · Established
-0.04Average100% mature · Established
-0.05Average100% mature · Established
-0.05Average100% mature · Established
-0.05Average100% mature · Provisional
-0.05Average100% mature · Established
-0.06Average100% mature · Established
-0.07Average100% mature · Provisional
-0.07Average100% mature · Provisional
-0.07Average100% mature · Established
-0.08Average100% mature · Established
-0.08Average100% mature · Provisional
-0.09Average52% mature · Established
-0.09Average100% mature · Provisional
-0.10Average100% mature · Provisional
-0.10Bad100% mature · Established
-0.10Bad26% mature · Provisional
-0.12Bad100% mature · Provisional
-0.13Bad100% mature · Established
-0.13Bad57% mature · Established
-0.14Bad100% mature · Provisional
-0.14Bad100% mature · Established
-0.14Bad80% mature · Established
-0.15Bad100% mature · Provisional
-0.15Bad53% mature · Provisional
-0.16Bad93% mature · Established
-0.16Bad100% mature · Provisional
-0.17Bad100% mature · Established
-0.18Bad87% mature · Established
-0.19Bad100% mature · Established
-0.19Bad100% mature · Established
-0.20Bad100% mature · Established
-0.20Bad67% mature · Established
-0.21Bad100% mature · Established
-0.23Bad100% mature · Established
-0.24Bad89% mature · Established
-0.25Bad100% mature · Provisional
-0.26Bad100% mature · Established
-0.26Bad100% mature · Established
-0.26Bad100% mature · Established
-0.26Bad100% mature · Provisional
-0.27Bad100% mature · Provisional
-0.29Bad*100% mature · Established
-0.29Bad100% mature · Provisional
-0.29Bad*100% mature · Established
-0.29Bad*100% mature · Established
-0.30Bad100% mature · Provisional
-0.30Bad100% mature · Provisional
-0.31Bad*99% mature · Established
-0.31Bad*100% mature · Established
-0.31Bad*100% mature · Established
-0.33Bad100% mature · Provisional
-0.34Bad*100% mature · Established
-0.34Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.36Terrible82% mature · Provisional
-0.37Terrible100% mature · Provisional
-0.37Terrible*92% mature · Established
-0.38Terrible*89% mature · Established
-0.39Terrible100% mature · Provisional
-0.40Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.40Terrible100% mature · Provisional
-0.41Terrible100% mature · Provisional
-0.43Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.43Terrible100% mature · Provisional
-0.44Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.45Terrible*96% mature · Established
-0.46Terrible100% mature · Provisional
-0.47Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.49Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.50Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.52Terrible*98% mature · Established
-0.53Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.55Terrible**100% mature · Established
-0.56Terrible100% mature · Provisional
-0.57Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.58Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.58Terrible100% mature · Provisional
-0.59Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.59Terrible100% mature · Provisional
-0.61Terrible100% mature · Provisional
-0.62Terrible100% mature · Provisional
-0.64Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.65Terrible*94% mature · Established
-0.71Terrible*100% mature · Established
-0.75Terrible**100% mature · Established
-0.81Terrible**100% mature · Established
-0.83Terrible**100% mature · Established
-0.86Terrible**100% mature · Established
-0.92Terrible**100% mature · Established
-0.98Terrible**100% mature · Established
-1.33Terrible**100% mature · Established
No GMs match those filters.
Try a different name, team code, verdict, or maturity level.
For the nerds: what goes into the score?
The active v30 drafted-player outcome set combines games played, starts, Pro Bowls, AP1 All-Pros, position-normalized snap share, trade-credit on-team AV, and AV/snap quality where observable. Per-pick residuals and team trajectories are support views; neither is another published GM rating. Read the method.