Ruston Webster
TEN · Composite skill θ = -0.14 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.72 to +0.44
Evidence: 39 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2011–2015 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.03
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2011–2015TEN
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | #77 | Jurrell Casey | DEF | +5.98 |
| 2014 | #11 | Taylor Lewan | OFF | +1.12 |
| 2014 | #151 | Avery Williamson | DEF | +1.04 |
| 2013 | #248 | Daimion Stafford | DEF | +0.80 |
| 2011 | #251 | Tommie Campbell | DEF | +0.79 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | #2 | Marcus Mariota | OFF | -2.86 |
| 2015 | #100 | Angelo Blackson | DEF | -2.58 |
| 2013 | #70 | Blidi Wreh-Wilson | DEF | -1.80 |
| 2015 | #66 | Jeremiah Poutasi | OFF | -1.10 |
| 2015 | #40 | Dorial Green-Beckham | OFF | -0.94 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 39 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2011 | #77 | Jurrell Casey | DEF | +1.61 | +2.50 | +2.47 | +2.54 | +1.15 | +4.06 | -0.16 | +5.98 |
| 2014 | #11 | Taylor Lewan | OFF | +0.56 | +0.78 | -0.14 | +0.53 | -0.29 | +2.00 | -0.80 | +1.12 |
| 2014 | #151 | Avery Williamson | DEF | +0.31 | +0.80 | +0.85 | +0.49 | +0.50 | -0.12 | -0.09 | +1.04 |
| 2013 | #248 | Daimion Stafford | DEF | +1.12 | +0.17 | +1.08 | +0.31 | -0.27 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.80 |
| 2011 | #251 | Tommie Campbell | DEF | +0.56 | -0.01 | +1.21 | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.79 |
| 2011 | #142 | Karl Klug | DEF | +1.71 | -0.30 | +0.98 | +0.22 | -0.72 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.52 |
| 2011 | #175 | Byron Stingily | OFF | +0.01 | -0.06 | +0.82 | -0.01 | +0.45 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.47 |
| 2014 | #112 | DaQuan Jones | DEF | +0.23 | +0.95 | +0.49 | +0.24 | +0.36 | -0.58 | -0.32 | +0.40 |
| 2011 | #109 | Colin McCarthy | DEF | +0.17 | +0.17 | +0.78 | +0.19 | -0.11 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.39 |
| 2012 | #20 | Kendall Wright | OFF | +0.38 | +0.11 | +0.22 | +0.18 | +0.40 | -0.20 | -0.10 | +0.38 |
| 2013 | #107 | Brian Schwenke | OFF | +0.51 | +0.16 | +0.05 | +0.14 | +0.18 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.35 |
| 2014 | #178 | Zach Mettenberger | OFF | +0.14 | +0.30 | +0.35 | +0.05 | -0.06 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.25 |
| 2015 | #208 | Andy Gallik | OFF | -0.21 | -0.10 | -0.24 | -0.04 | +0.86 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.20 |
| 2012 | #82 | Mike Martin | DEF | +0.40 | -0.23 | +0.33 | -0.01 | -0.35 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2013 | #142 | Lavar Edwards | DEF | -0.40 | -0.18 | +0.77 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2012 | #211 | Scott Solomon | DEF | -0.10 | -0.06 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 2011 | #8 | Jake Locker | OFF | -0.06 | -0.28 | +0.27 | -0.26 | +0.15 | -0.09 | -0.02 | -0.12 |
| 2011 | #212 | Zach Clayton | DEF | -0.32 | -0.04 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.19 |
| 2015 | #245 | Tre McBride | OFF | -0.20 | -0.08 | +0.01 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2012 | #115 | Coty Sensabaugh | DEF | +0.19 | -0.07 | +0.81 | -0.13 | -0.72 | -0.12 | -0.09 | -0.21 |
| 2011 | #130 | Jamie Harper | OFF | -0.03 | -0.16 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.25 |
| 2012 | #145 | Taylor Thompson | OFF | +0.25 | -0.02 | +0.75 | +0.06 | -1.26 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2013 | #202 | Khalid Wooten | DEF | -0.39 | -0.11 | -0.29 | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2012 | #190 | Markelle Martin | DEF | -0.46 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2011 | #39 | Akeem Ayers | DEF | -0.16 | +0.13 | -0.33 | -0.13 | +0.00 | -0.20 | -0.13 | -0.35 |
| 2015 | #177 | Deiontrez Mount | DEF | -0.53 | -0.27 | +0.47 | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.36 |
| 2014 | #122 | Marqueston Huff | DEF | +0.08 | -0.27 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.60 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.45 |
| 2013 | #97 | Zaviar Gooden | DEF | -0.20 | -0.35 | -0.38 | -0.23 | -0.36 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.64 |
| 2014 | #54 | Bishop Sankey | OFF | -0.19 | -0.18 | -0.79 | -0.24 | -0.14 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.65 |
| 2012 | #52 | Zach Brown | DEF | -0.35 | -0.25 | -0.44 | -0.28 | +0.13 | -0.29 | -0.19 | -0.67 |
| 2015 | #108 | Jalston Fowler | OFF | +0.29 | -0.10 | -1.04 | -0.31 | -0.55 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.75 |
| 2015 | #138 | David Cobb | OFF | -0.48 | -0.18 | -0.88 | -0.20 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.75 |
| 2013 | #10 | Chance Warmack | OFF | -0.18 | -0.12 | +0.24 | -0.40 | -0.89 | -0.28 | -0.16 | -0.89 |
| 2013 | #34 | Justin Hunter | OFF | -0.29 | -0.51 | -0.05 | -0.44 | -0.56 | -0.16 | -0.08 | -0.91 |
| 2015 | #40 | Dorial Green-Beckham | OFF | -0.57 | -0.54 | -0.77 | -0.44 | -0.03 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.94 |
| 2015 | #66 | Jeremiah Poutasi | OFF | -0.59 | -0.51 | -0.80 | -0.41 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.10 |
| 2013 | #70 | Blidi Wreh-Wilson | DEF | -0.79 | -0.81 | -0.08 | -0.81 | -1.10 | -0.33 | -0.23 | -1.80 |
| 2015 | #100 | Angelo Blackson | DEF | -1.06 | -1.25 | -0.71 | -1.13 | -1.48 | -0.36 | -0.18 | -2.58 |
| 2015 | #2 | Marcus Mariota | OFF | -0.62 | -0.66 | -0.59 | -0.56 | -0.41 | -2.80 | -0.73 | -2.86 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.