Ron Wolf
GB · Composite skill θ = +0.19 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.48 to +0.85
Composite θ
+0.19
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.48–+0.85
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
71%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 90 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 1992–2001 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.13
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1992–2001GBHOF GM; retired June 2001
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | #213 | Donald Driver | OFF | +6.88 |
| 1996 | #208 | Marco Rivera | OFF | +4.79 |
| 2000 | #44 | Chad Clifton | OFF | +4.64 |
| 1995 | #90 | Antonio Freeman | OFF | +4.61 |
| 2000 | #224 | Mark Tauscher | OFF | +3.72 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | #118 | Mark Brunell | OFF | -7.15 |
| 1992 | #5 | Terrell Buckley | DEF | -7.11 |
| 1998 | #187 | Matt Hasselbeck | OFF | -5.67 |
| 1998 | #19 | Vonnie Holliday | DEF | -4.23 |
| 1997 | #231 | Jerald Sowell | OFF | -2.01 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 90 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1999 | #213 | Donald Driver | OFF | +2.71 | +2.60 | — | +2.29 | — | +4.11 | -0.24 | +6.88 |
| 1996 | #208 | Marco Rivera | OFF | +1.46 | +1.82 | — | +1.61 | — | +3.17 | -0.09 | +4.79 |
| 2000 | #44 | Chad Clifton | OFF | +1.74 | +2.44 | — | +2.14 | — | +1.38 | -0.56 | +4.64 |
| 1995 | #90 | Antonio Freeman | OFF | +1.44 | +1.56 | — | +2.15 | — | -0.14 | +2.07 | +4.61 |
| 2000 | #224 | Mark Tauscher | OFF | +1.70 | +2.42 | — | +1.76 | — | -0.10 | -0.09 | +3.72 |
| 2000 | #149 | Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila | DEF | +1.79 | +1.29 | — | +1.43 | — | +1.04 | -0.03 | +3.47 |
| 1996 | #93 | Tyrone Williams | DEF | +1.32 | +1.66 | — | +1.12 | — | -0.11 | -0.09 | +2.51 |
| 1997 | #60 | Darren Sharper | DEF | +0.27 | +0.78 | — | +0.63 | — | +1.28 | +1.33 | +2.46 |
| 1995 | #66 | William Henderson | OFF | +2.38 | +1.50 | — | -0.50 | — | +0.36 | +1.67 | +2.45 |
| 1999 | #94 | Cletidus Hunt | DEF | +1.33 | +1.30 | — | +1.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +2.37 |
| 1992 | #157 | Mark Chmura | OFF | +1.10 | +1.09 | — | +0.71 | — | +1.04 | -0.03 | +2.32 |
| 1992 | #103 | Edgar Bennett | OFF | +0.78 | +1.06 | — | +1.45 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | +2.29 |
| 2000 | #14 | Bubba Franks | OFF | +0.95 | +0.99 | — | -0.36 | — | +2.77 | -0.27 | +1.86 |
| 1993 | #81 | Earl Dotson | OFF | +1.26 | +1.07 | — | +0.84 | — | -0.24 | -0.15 | +1.80 |
| 1992 | #62 | Robert Brooks | OFF | +0.84 | +0.78 | — | +1.10 | — | -0.21 | -0.11 | +1.75 |
| 1994 | #149 | Dorsey Levens | OFF | +0.77 | +0.35 | — | +1.08 | — | -0.23 | -0.16 | +1.45 |
| 1994 | #126 | Gabe Wilkins | DEF | +0.81 | +0.43 | — | +0.59 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.20 |
| 1995 | #73 | Brian Williams | DEF | +0.44 | +0.67 | — | +0.60 | — | -0.11 | -0.08 | +1.06 |
| 1995 | #32 | Craig Newsome | DEF | +0.30 | +0.69 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.79 |
| 1993 | #141 | Doug Evans | DEF | +0.21 | +0.51 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.16 | -0.14 | +0.64 |
| 1994 | #181 | Bill Schroeder | OFF | +0.19 | +0.28 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.14 | -0.10 | +0.43 |
| 1996 | #240 | Kyle Wachholtz | OFF | +0.10 | +0.29 | — | +0.23 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.42 |
| 1997 | #240 | Ron McAda | OFF | +0.10 | +0.29 | — | +0.23 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.42 |
| 1993 | #15 | Wayne Simmons | DEF | +0.33 | +0.23 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.12 | -0.08 | +0.33 |
| 2000 | #252 | Rondell Mealey | OFF | +0.10 | +0.19 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| 1996 | #252 | Keith McKenzie | DEF | +0.69 | -0.35 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 1995 | #160 | Jay Barker | OFF | -0.05 | +0.16 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 |
| 1996 | #90 | Mike Flanagan | OFF | +0.30 | +0.04 | — | -0.17 | — | +0.67 | -0.30 | +0.19 |
| 1999 | #212 | Chris Akins | DEF | +0.03 | +0.05 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 1994 | #146 | Terry Mickens | OFF | +0.54 | -0.08 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 1999 | #159 | De'Mond Parker | OFF | +0.06 | +0.03 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 1994 | #16 | Aaron Taylor | OFF | -0.02 | +0.11 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | +0.07 |
| 2001 | #72 | Torrance Marshall | DEF | +0.53 | -0.33 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.06 |
| 2000 | #229 | Ron Moore | DEF | -0.24 | +0.10 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 1997 | #126 | Jermaine Smith | DEF | +0.02 | -0.09 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 1999 | #87 | Mike McKenzie | DEF | -0.15 | +0.49 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.27 | -0.22 | +0.00 |
| 2000 | #242 | Charles Lee | OFF | +0.12 | -0.04 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 2000 | #98 | Na'il Diggs | DEF | -0.09 | +0.61 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.40 | -0.35 | -0.01 |
| 1992 | #119 | Dexter McNabb | OFF | +0.27 | -0.08 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 1997 | #213 | Chris Miller | OFF | -0.26 | +0.07 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 1996 | #56 | Derrick Mayes | OFF | +0.03 | -0.12 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1998 | #218 | Eddie Watson | OFF | -0.29 | +0.13 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1993 | #152 | Paul Hutchins | OFF | +0.00 | -0.18 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1999 | #196 | Dee Miller | OFF | -0.29 | +0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 1993 | #183 | Bob Kuberski | DEF | +0.17 | -0.24 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1996 | #123 | Chris Darkins | DEF | -0.13 | -0.12 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2000 | #249 | Eugene McCaslin | DEF | -0.28 | +0.02 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.13 |
| 1992 | #190 | Christopher Holder | OFF | -0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 1995 | #173 | Charlie Simmons | OFF | -0.34 | +0.01 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1994 | #169 | Jay Kearney | OFF | -0.35 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1993 | #156 | Tim Watson | DEF | -0.40 | -0.05 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1999 | #203 | Scott Curry | OFF | -0.18 | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.22 |
| 2000 | #74 | Steve Warren | DEF | +0.00 | -0.28 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2000 | #151 | Joey Jamison | OFF | -0.39 | -0.04 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2001 | #71 | Bhawoh Jue | DEF | +0.20 | -0.37 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.28 |
| 2000 | #126 | Gary Berry | DEF | -0.36 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1994 | #190 | Paul Duckworth | DEF | -0.40 | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1998 | #121 | Roosevelt Blackmon | DEF | -0.40 | -0.13 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1992 | #130 | Orlando McKay | OFF | -0.45 | -0.10 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1997 | #160 | Anthony Hicks | DEF | -0.46 | -0.11 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1999 | #163 | Craig Heimburger | OFF | -0.33 | -0.21 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2000 | #114 | Anthony Lucas | OFF | -0.48 | -0.14 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2001 | #105 | Bill Ferrario | OFF | -0.14 | -0.37 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1998 | #90 | Jonathan Brown | DEF | -0.45 | -0.20 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2001 | #41 | Robert Ferguson | OFF | +0.09 | -0.31 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.19 | -0.10 | -0.52 |
| 1995 | #230 | Adam Timmerman | OFF | -0.29 | -0.10 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.13 | -0.12 | -0.60 |
| 1995 | #117 | Jeff Miller | OFF | -0.49 | -0.32 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 1994 | #175 | Ruffin Hamilton | DEF | -0.51 | -0.25 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1999 | #47 | Fred Vinson | DEF | -0.34 | -0.43 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.64 |
| 1998 | #150 | Corey Bradford | OFF | -0.19 | -0.49 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.65 |
| 1998 | #156 | Scott McGarrahan | DEF | +0.07 | -0.58 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.66 |
| 1996 | #27 | John Michels | OFF | -0.27 | -0.43 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.67 |
| 1994 | #84 | LeShon Johnson | OFF | -0.46 | -0.36 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.70 |
| 1999 | #25 | Antuan Edwards | DEF | +0.03 | -0.52 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | -0.77 |
| 1995 | #170 | Travis Jervey | OFF | +0.16 | -0.54 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.84 |
| 1997 | #90 | Brett Conway | ST | -0.97 | -0.25 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.84 |
| 1993 | #119 | James Willis | DEF | -0.36 | -0.56 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.88 |
| 2001 | #198 | David Martin | OFF | +0.06 | -0.56 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | -0.99 |
| 1993 | #29 | George Teague | DEF | -0.52 | -0.16 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.30 | -0.21 | -1.04 |
| 1999 | #131 | Aaron Brooks | OFF | -0.72 | -0.44 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -1.05 |
| 1997 | #30 | Ross Verba | OFF | -0.44 | -0.24 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.50 | -0.31 | -1.19 |
| 1992 | #34 | Mark D'Onofrio | DEF | -0.84 | -0.59 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.30 |
| 2001 | #10 | Jamal Reynolds | DEF | -0.54 | -0.93 | — | -0.75 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.52 |
| 1999 | #133 | Josh Bidwell | ST | -0.41 | -1.10 | — | -0.81 | — | -0.26 | -0.27 | -1.82 |
| 1995 | #65 | Darius Holland | DEF | -0.66 | -1.10 | — | -0.92 | — | -0.20 | -0.10 | -1.95 |
| 1997 | #231 | Jerald Sowell | OFF | -1.31 | -0.78 | — | -0.89 | — | -0.09 | -0.07 | -2.01 |
| 1998 | #19 | Vonnie Holliday | DEF | -1.54 | -0.97 | — | -1.33 | — | -2.01 | -1.29 | -4.23 |
| 1998 | #187 | Matt Hasselbeck | OFF | -2.27 | -2.48 | — | -3.04 | — | -0.37 | -0.13 | -5.67 |
| 1992 | #5 | Terrell Buckley | DEF | -1.91 | -1.65 | — | -2.14 | — | -3.13 | -3.25 | -7.11 |
| 1993 | #118 | Mark Brunell | OFF | -3.44 | -2.89 | — | -3.52 | — | -0.72 | -0.23 | -7.15 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.