Joe Schoen
NYG · Composite skill θ = +0.04 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.60 to +1.68
Evidence: 31 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 2022–2025 · 34% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.21
- maturity discount
- -0.07
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2022–2025NYG
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #146 | Micah McFadden | DEF | +1.36 |
| 2024 | #166 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | OFF | +1.33 |
| 2025 | #25 | Jaxson Dart | OFF | +1.02 |
| 2024 | #183 | Darius Muasau | DEF | +0.89 |
| 2024 | #107 | Theo Johnson | OFF | +0.87 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | #3 | Abdul Carter | DEF | -1.86 |
| 2022 | #7 | Evan Neal | OFF | -1.37 |
| 2022 | #182 | Darrian Beavers | DEF | -0.93 |
| 2023 | #73 | Jalin Hyatt | OFF | -0.64 |
| 2022 | #173 | Marcus McKethan | OFF | -0.57 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 31 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2022 | #146 | Micah McFadden | DEF | +0.47 | +0.66 | +0.32 | +0.53 | +1.29 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.36 |
| 2024 | #166 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | OFF | +0.48 | +0.74 | +0.95 | +0.60 | +0.65 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.33 |
| 2025 | #25 | Jaxson Dart | OFF | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +1.83 | -0.02 | +0.00 | +1.02 |
| 2024 | #183 | Darius Muasau | DEF | +0.33 | +0.49 | +0.59 | +0.30 | +0.55 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.89 |
| 2024 | #107 | Theo Johnson | OFF | +0.19 | +0.57 | +0.61 | +0.41 | +0.44 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.87 |
| 2023 | #243 | Jordon Riley | DEF | +0.24 | +0.19 | +0.42 | +0.22 | +0.95 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.86 |
| 2022 | #112 | Daniel Bellinger | OFF | +0.76 | +0.77 | +0.74 | +0.31 | -0.21 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.77 |
| 2025 | #246 | Korie Black | DEF | +0.22 | +0.33 | +0.61 | +0.26 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.65 |
| 2022 | #81 | Cordale Flott | DEF | +0.49 | +0.56 | +0.23 | +0.22 | +0.15 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.56 |
| 2025 | #219 | Thomas Fidone | OFF | +0.08 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.36 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.53 |
| 2023 | #209 | Tre Hawkins | DEF | +0.14 | +0.09 | +0.25 | +0.15 | +0.57 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.51 |
| 2023 | #254 | Gervarrius Owens | DEF | -0.02 | +0.20 | +0.57 | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.43 |
| 2022 | #43 | Wan'Dale Robinson | OFF | +0.37 | +0.25 | +0.45 | +0.31 | -0.01 | -0.13 | -0.05 | +0.42 |
| 2023 | #57 | John Michael Schmitz | OFF | +0.25 | +0.50 | +0.30 | +0.16 | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.34 |
| 2022 | #114 | Dane Belton | DEF | +0.90 | +0.26 | +0.48 | +0.24 | -0.73 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.26 |
| 2025 | #154 | Marcus Mbow | OFF | +0.14 | +0.03 | +0.37 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| 2025 | #105 | Cam Skattebo | OFF | -0.11 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 2022 | #5 | Kayvon Thibodeaux | DEF | +0.07 | +0.19 | -0.02 | -0.17 | +0.52 | -0.23 | -0.10 | +0.10 |
| 2023 | #24 | Deonte Banks | DEF | +0.17 | +0.22 | +0.09 | -0.08 | +0.04 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.07 |
| 2024 | #47 | Tyler Nubin | DEF | -0.01 | +0.27 | +0.15 | +0.07 | -0.18 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.05 |
| 2024 | #6 | Malik Nabers | OFF | -0.45 | -0.52 | -0.47 | -0.58 | +0.67 | +0.97 | -0.05 | +0.02 |
| 2024 | #70 | Andru Phillips | DEF | +0.21 | +0.13 | +0.17 | +0.07 | -0.34 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2022 | #147 | D.J. Davidson | DEF | +0.54 | -0.13 | -0.02 | +0.04 | -0.49 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2025 | #65 | Darius Alexander | DEF | -0.02 | -0.08 | -0.01 | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 2022 | #67 | Joshua Ezeudu | OFF | +0.13 | -0.27 | -0.46 | -0.20 | +0.18 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.24 |
| 2023 | #172 | Eric Gray | OFF | +0.40 | -0.02 | -0.30 | -0.05 | -0.58 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2022 | #173 | Marcus McKethan | OFF | -0.18 | -0.25 | -0.64 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.57 |
| 2023 | #73 | Jalin Hyatt | OFF | +0.33 | -0.07 | -0.33 | -0.20 | -0.97 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.64 |
| 2022 | #182 | Darrian Beavers | DEF | -0.57 | -0.27 | -1.13 | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.93 |
| 2022 | #7 | Evan Neal | OFF | -0.33 | -0.50 | -0.39 | -0.73 | -0.96 | -0.16 | -0.08 | -1.37 |
| 2025 | #3 | Abdul Carter | DEF | -0.37 | -0.82 | -0.36 | -1.03 | -1.57 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -1.86 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.