Dave Wannstedt
MIA · Composite skill θ = +0.02 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.87 to +0.92
Evidence: 15 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2000–2001 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.12
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2000–2001MIAHC with final say; pre-Spielman GM era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #52 | Chris Chambers | OFF | +2.09 |
| 2000 | #152 | Arturo Freeman | DEF | +1.32 |
| 2000 | #53 | Todd Wade | OFF | +0.72 |
| 2001 | #88 | Morlon Greenwood | DEF | +0.58 |
| 2001 | #177 | Josh Heupel | OFF | +0.23 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #26 | Jamar Fletcher | DEF | -1.82 |
| 2000 | #84 | Ben Kelly | DEF | -0.54 |
| 2001 | #156 | Shawn Draper | OFF | -0.45 |
| 2001 | #164 | Brandon Winey | OFF | -0.42 |
| 2001 | #188 | Rick Crowell | DEF | -0.30 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 15 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2001 | #52 | Chris Chambers | OFF | +0.68 | +1.16 | — | +0.92 | — | +0.72 | -0.22 | +2.09 |
| 2000 | #152 | Arturo Freeman | DEF | +1.15 | +0.57 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.32 |
| 2000 | #53 | Todd Wade | OFF | +0.21 | +0.61 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.15 | -0.09 | +0.72 |
| 2001 | #88 | Morlon Greenwood | DEF | +0.24 | +0.56 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | +0.58 |
| 2001 | #177 | Josh Heupel | OFF | -0.02 | +0.18 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.23 |
| 2000 | #167 | Ernest Grant | DEF | -0.04 | +0.08 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.14 |
| 2000 | #117 | Deon Dyer | OFF | +0.59 | -0.05 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 2000 | #232 | Jeff Harris | DEF | -0.25 | +0.08 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2001 | #187 | Otis Leverette | DEF | -0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 2001 | #85 | Travis Minor | OFF | +1.00 | -0.62 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.13 | -0.08 | -0.21 |
| 2001 | #188 | Rick Crowell | DEF | -0.41 | -0.07 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2001 | #164 | Brandon Winey | OFF | -0.39 | -0.22 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2001 | #156 | Shawn Draper | OFF | -0.40 | -0.23 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 2000 | #84 | Ben Kelly | DEF | -0.49 | -0.26 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2001 | #26 | Jamar Fletcher | DEF | -0.47 | -1.03 | — | -0.89 | — | -0.21 | -0.15 | -1.82 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.