Tom Telesco
LAC · LV · Composite skill θ = +0.21 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.86 to +1.27
Composite θ
+0.21
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.86–+1.27
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
65%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 84 mapped picks across 12 draft classes, 2013–2024 · 76% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.08
- maturity discount
- -0.07
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2013–2023LACSD→LAC; same GM
- 2024–2024LV
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | #76 | Keenan Allen | OFF | +5.30 |
| 2018 | #17 | Derwin James | DEF | +4.97 |
| 2020 | #6 | Justin Herbert | OFF | +3.45 |
| 2024 | #13 | Brock Bowers | OFF | +2.93 |
| 2023 | #200 | Scott Matlock | DEF | +2.30 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | #25 | Jason Verrett | DEF | -2.67 |
| 2014 | #50 | Jeremiah Attaochu | DEF | -2.50 |
| 2018 | #48 | Uchenna Nwosu | DEF | -1.60 |
| 2016 | #35 | Hunter Henry | OFF | -1.55 |
| 2016 | #66 | Max Tuerk | OFF | -1.48 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 84 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2013 | #76 | Keenan Allen | OFF | +1.28 | +1.83 | +1.95 | +2.23 | +0.89 | +5.07 | -0.97 | +5.30 |
| 2018 | #17 | Derwin James | DEF | +0.57 | +1.13 | +0.34 | +0.82 | +1.65 | +4.55 | +1.56 | +4.97 |
| 2020 | #6 | Justin Herbert | OFF | +1.09 | +1.28 | +1.66 | +2.27 | +0.29 | +1.74 | -0.08 | +3.45 |
| 2024 | #13 | Brock Bowers | OFF | -0.21 | -0.19 | -0.16 | +0.00 | +2.00 | +2.09 | +2.12 | +2.93 |
| 2023 | #200 | Scott Matlock | DEF | +0.75 | +0.52 | +1.10 | +0.53 | +2.51 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +2.30 |
| 2023 | #54 | Tuli Tuipulotu | DEF | +0.47 | +0.55 | +1.21 | +0.59 | +0.61 | +1.05 | -0.02 | +1.86 |
| 2021 | #13 | Rashawn Slater | OFF | +0.10 | +0.19 | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.82 | +1.98 | -0.10 | +1.78 |
| 2017 | #190 | Sam Tevi | OFF | +0.82 | +0.82 | +1.17 | +0.77 | +0.81 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.71 |
| 2016 | #3 | Joey Bosa | DEF | +0.31 | +0.28 | -0.38 | +0.46 | +0.73 | +3.11 | -1.42 | +1.52 |
| 2022 | #195 | Jamaree Salyer | OFF | +1.03 | +0.76 | +1.03 | +0.62 | +0.49 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.48 |
| 2017 | #151 | Desmond King | DEF | +0.02 | -0.19 | +0.71 | +0.02 | +0.38 | -0.14 | +2.05 | +1.33 |
| 2022 | #160 | Otito Ogbonnia | DEF | +0.42 | +0.34 | -0.05 | +0.37 | +1.33 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.07 |
| 2023 | #85 | Daiyan Henley | DEF | +0.45 | +0.53 | +0.55 | +0.44 | +0.59 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.00 |
| 2019 | #91 | Trey Pipkins | OFF | +1.08 | +0.79 | +0.34 | +0.75 | +0.13 | -0.23 | -0.12 | +0.99 |
| 2015 | #153 | Kyle Emanuel | DEF | +0.65 | +0.40 | +0.67 | +0.31 | +0.59 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.98 |
| 2016 | #175 | Jatavis Brown | DEF | +0.70 | +0.34 | +0.67 | +0.40 | +0.35 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.92 |
| 2018 | #251 | Justin Jackson | OFF | +0.53 | +0.10 | +0.68 | +0.32 | +0.40 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.78 |
| 2020 | #186 | Alohi Gilman | DEF | +0.91 | +0.61 | +0.32 | +0.33 | -0.04 | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.70 |
| 2024 | #223 | Trey Taylor | DEF | +0.21 | +0.28 | +0.62 | +0.27 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.64 |
| 2021 | #77 | Josh Palmer | OFF | +0.45 | +0.20 | +0.44 | +0.34 | +0.25 | -0.13 | -0.05 | +0.57 |
| 2022 | #214 | Ja'Sir Taylor | DEF | +0.90 | +0.16 | +0.47 | +0.22 | -0.17 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| 2018 | #155 | Scott Quessenberry | OFF | +0.85 | -0.21 | -0.07 | +0.04 | +0.55 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.45 |
| 2016 | #179 | Drew Kaser | ST | +0.29 | +0.11 | -0.16 | +0.37 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.43 |
| 2013 | #179 | Tourek Williams | DEF | +0.58 | +0.04 | +0.24 | +0.15 | +0.10 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.40 |
| 2015 | #192 | Darius Philon | DEF | +0.40 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.14 | +0.32 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.35 |
| 2023 | #239 | Max Duggan | OFF | +0.04 | +0.22 | +0.16 | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.28 |
| 2024 | #112 | Decamerion Richardson | DEF | +0.25 | +0.10 | +0.05 | +0.12 | +0.17 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.27 |
| 2013 | #221 | Brad Sorensen | OFF | -0.10 | +0.11 | +0.26 | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| 2019 | #60 | Nasir Adderley | DEF | +0.24 | +0.57 | -0.02 | +0.10 | -0.19 | -0.10 | -0.06 | +0.14 |
| 2021 | #47 | Asante Samuel Jr. | DEF | +0.12 | +0.51 | +0.46 | +0.01 | -0.25 | -0.16 | -0.09 | +0.12 |
| 2024 | #229 | M.J. Devonshire | DEF | -0.16 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| 2018 | #84 | Justin Jones | DEF | -0.01 | +0.13 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.18 | -0.16 | -0.07 | +0.09 |
| 2022 | #17 | Zion Johnson | OFF | +0.47 | +0.63 | +0.69 | +0.16 | -0.87 | -0.22 | -0.10 | +0.08 |
| 2013 | #145 | Steve Williams | DEF | +0.18 | -0.11 | -0.22 | +0.05 | +0.21 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 2014 | #165 | Ryan Carrethers | DEF | +0.04 | -0.09 | -0.51 | +0.02 | +0.48 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.05 |
| 2023 | #21 | Quentin Johnston | OFF | +0.19 | +0.09 | +0.16 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.13 | -0.05 | +0.03 |
| 2022 | #236 | Deane Leonard | DEF | +0.67 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.07 | -0.40 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 2021 | #159 | Brenden Jaimes | OFF | +0.36 | -0.47 | -0.76 | -0.20 | +0.84 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.01 |
| 2018 | #119 | Kyzir White | DEF | -0.22 | +0.10 | -0.16 | +0.02 | +0.49 | -0.21 | -0.15 | -0.02 |
| 2023 | #125 | Derius Davis | OFF | +0.54 | -0.06 | -0.28 | -0.04 | -0.28 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2019 | #166 | Easton Stick | OFF | -0.20 | +0.00 | -0.33 | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.13 |
| 2024 | #77 | Delmar Glaze | OFF | +0.30 | +0.45 | +0.61 | +0.17 | -1.30 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 2015 | #15 | Melvin Gordon | OFF | -0.35 | +0.04 | +0.41 | +0.13 | -0.13 | +0.55 | -0.93 | -0.16 |
| 2017 | #225 | Isaac Rochell | DEF | +0.34 | -0.24 | +0.82 | -0.08 | -0.81 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.18 |
| 2024 | #208 | Dylan Laube | OFF | +0.44 | +0.17 | +0.19 | +0.04 | -0.95 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2016 | #198 | Derek Watt | OFF | +0.60 | -0.11 | +0.86 | -0.46 | -0.72 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.21 |
| 2020 | #112 | Joshua Kelley | OFF | +0.46 | -0.29 | +0.32 | +0.03 | -0.65 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.22 |
| 2022 | #260 | Zander Horvath | OFF | -0.07 | +0.04 | -0.30 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2019 | #242 | Cortez Broughton | DEF | -0.26 | -0.17 | -0.33 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2023 | #156 | Jordan McFadden | OFF | -0.14 | -0.24 | -0.17 | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2014 | #240 | Tevin Reese | OFF | -0.40 | -0.06 | -0.43 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2021 | #185 | Nick Niemann | DEF | +0.78 | -0.32 | +0.03 | -0.14 | -0.88 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.39 |
| 2017 | #71 | Dan Feeney | OFF | -0.18 | +0.13 | +0.36 | -0.02 | -0.06 | -0.59 | -0.33 | -0.40 |
| 2020 | #23 | Kenneth Murray | DEF | -0.05 | +0.22 | +0.06 | -0.10 | -0.17 | -0.45 | -0.25 | -0.41 |
| 2019 | #130 | Drue Tranquill | DEF | -0.10 | -0.07 | +0.12 | -0.13 | -0.43 | -0.16 | -0.10 | -0.42 |
| 2024 | #148 | Tommy Eichenberg | DEF | +0.35 | -0.05 | +0.13 | -0.02 | -1.09 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2015 | #83 | Craig Mager | DEF | -0.21 | -0.17 | -0.68 | -0.15 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.49 |
| 2019 | #200 | Emeke Egbule | DEF | +0.09 | -0.32 | -0.85 | -0.20 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.53 |
| 2014 | #201 | Marion Grice | OFF | -0.50 | -0.07 | -0.66 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2020 | #220 | K.J. Hill | OFF | -0.08 | -0.23 | -0.80 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.57 |
| 2014 | #89 | Chris Watt | OFF | -0.34 | -0.36 | -0.72 | -0.21 | +0.08 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.58 |
| 2016 | #224 | Donavon Clark | OFF | -0.50 | -0.32 | -0.62 | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 2021 | #118 | Chris Rumph | DEF | +0.07 | -0.45 | -0.11 | -0.23 | -0.94 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.78 |
| 2018 | #191 | Dylan Cantrell | OFF | -0.58 | -0.22 | -0.88 | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.79 |
| 2021 | #241 | Mark Webb | DEF | -0.43 | -0.25 | -1.10 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.79 |
| 2021 | #198 | Larry Rountree | OFF | -0.30 | -0.24 | -1.02 | -0.25 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.81 |
| 2017 | #113 | Rayshawn Jenkins | DEF | -0.09 | -0.23 | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.36 | -0.31 | -0.22 | -0.86 |
| 2022 | #123 | Isaiah Spiller | OFF | -0.33 | -0.26 | -1.17 | -0.25 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.88 |
| 2024 | #44 | Jackson Powers-Johnson | OFF | -0.11 | -0.02 | -0.13 | -0.23 | -1.28 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.88 |
| 2016 | #102 | Joshua Perry | DEF | -0.47 | -0.45 | -0.74 | -0.36 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.95 |
| 2017 | #38 | Forrest Lamp | OFF | -0.43 | -0.44 | -0.54 | -0.41 | -0.38 | -0.13 | -0.06 | -0.97 |
| 2013 | #11 | D.J. Fluker | OFF | -0.31 | -0.15 | +0.34 | -0.30 | -0.44 | -0.75 | -0.45 | -1.01 |
| 2020 | #151 | Joe Reed | OFF | -0.45 | -0.35 | -1.20 | -0.32 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.03 |
| 2017 | #7 | Mike Williams | OFF | +0.28 | -0.07 | +0.11 | +0.00 | -0.21 | -1.34 | -0.75 | -1.05 |
| 2022 | #79 | JT Woods | DEF | -0.49 | -0.45 | -1.59 | -0.31 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.20 |
| 2019 | #28 | Jerry Tillery | DEF | -0.22 | -0.44 | -0.04 | -0.45 | -0.96 | -0.42 | -0.17 | -1.22 |
| 2021 | #97 | Tre' McKitty | OFF | -0.13 | -0.25 | -1.36 | -0.20 | -1.02 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -1.26 |
| 2013 | #38 | Manti Te'o | DEF | -0.70 | -0.35 | -0.84 | -0.53 | -0.22 | -0.40 | -0.26 | -1.34 |
| 2015 | #48 | Denzel Perryman | DEF | -0.10 | +0.16 | -1.81 | -0.14 | +0.88 | -1.40 | -1.01 | -1.43 |
| 2016 | #66 | Max Tuerk | OFF | -0.88 | -0.73 | -0.96 | -0.56 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.48 |
| 2016 | #35 | Hunter Henry | OFF | -0.78 | -0.37 | -0.27 | -0.57 | +0.47 | -1.39 | -0.66 | -1.55 |
| 2018 | #48 | Uchenna Nwosu | DEF | -0.19 | -0.62 | -0.43 | -0.56 | -0.88 | -0.59 | -0.36 | -1.60 |
| 2014 | #50 | Jeremiah Attaochu | DEF | -0.83 | -1.04 | -1.49 | -0.97 | -0.84 | -0.56 | -0.38 | -2.50 |
| 2014 | #25 | Jason Verrett | DEF | -1.48 | -1.15 | -2.20 | -1.08 | +0.93 | -1.14 | -0.82 | -2.67 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.