James Harris
JAX · Composite skill θ = -0.29 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.90 to +0.32
Evidence: 49 mapped picks across 6 draft classes, 2003–2008 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.30
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2003–2008JAX
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | #60 | Maurice Jones-Drew | OFF | +3.76 |
| 2003 | #72 | Vince Manuwai | OFF | +3.16 |
| 2003 | #39 | Rashean Mathis | DEF | +2.61 |
| 2007 | #149 | Uche Nwaneri | OFF | +1.70 |
| 2006 | #80 | Clint Ingram | DEF | +1.42 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | #28 | Marcedes Lewis | OFF | -7.38 |
| 2007 | #21 | Reggie Nelson | DEF | -3.83 |
| 2005 | #52 | Khalif Barnes | OFF | -2.49 |
| 2007 | #48 | Justin Durant | DEF | -2.26 |
| 2003 | #7 | Byron Leftwich | OFF | -1.44 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 49 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2006 | #60 | Maurice Jones-Drew | OFF | +1.20 | +0.86 | -0.11 | +2.63 | -1.29 | +2.94 | +1.95 | +3.76 |
| 2003 | #72 | Vince Manuwai | OFF | +1.43 | +1.87 | — | +1.61 | — | -0.13 | -0.08 | +3.16 |
| 2003 | #39 | Rashean Mathis | DEF | +0.78 | +1.49 | — | +0.87 | — | +0.00 | +1.19 | +2.61 |
| 2007 | #149 | Uche Nwaneri | OFF | +1.65 | +1.90 | +1.02 | +1.32 | -0.88 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.70 |
| 2006 | #80 | Clint Ingram | DEF | +0.63 | +0.88 | — | +0.68 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.42 |
| 2004 | #120 | Ernest Wilford | OFF | +1.05 | +0.72 | — | +0.55 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.40 |
| 2004 | #249 | Bobby McCray | DEF | +0.84 | +0.55 | — | +0.65 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.34 |
| 2003 | #104 | George Wrighster | OFF | +0.84 | +0.36 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.88 |
| 2007 | #79 | Mike Sims-Walker | OFF | +0.33 | +0.49 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.82 |
| 2004 | #9 | Reggie Williams | OFF | +0.91 | +0.49 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.73 |
| 2003 | #132 | LaBrandon Toefield | OFF | +0.61 | +0.03 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.43 |
| 2005 | #21 | Matt Jones | OFF | +0.40 | -0.33 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.30 |
| 2005 | #87 | Scott Starks | DEF | +0.70 | -0.25 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| 2007 | #251 | Chad Nkang | DEF | +0.20 | -0.03 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 2005 | #127 | Alvin Pearman | OFF | +0.22 | -0.09 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.14 |
| 2006 | #236 | Dee Webb | DEF | -0.02 | +0.06 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.14 |
| 2004 | #39 | Daryl Smith | DEF | +0.43 | +1.27 | — | +0.53 | — | -1.34 | -1.15 | +0.14 |
| 2006 | #160 | Brent Hawkins | DEF | +0.07 | -0.06 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| 2007 | #101 | Adam Podlesh | ST | +0.43 | -0.27 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | +0.08 |
| 2004 | #137 | Josh Scobee | ST | +2.09 | -1.12 | -0.53 | +0.22 | — | -0.29 | -0.30 | +0.07 |
| 2007 | #229 | John Broussard | OFF | -0.11 | +0.03 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 2005 | #157 | Gerald Sensabaugh | DEF | +0.18 | +0.05 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.06 |
| 2005 | #237 | Chris Roberson | DEF | -0.13 | +0.05 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.05 |
| 2005 | #194 | Pat Thomas | DEF | -0.07 | -0.06 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2006 | #213 | James Wyche | DEF | -0.27 | +0.03 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 2003 | #218 | Malaefou MacKenzie | OFF | -0.28 | +0.10 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2003 | #176 | Brandon Green | DEF | -0.28 | +0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 2008 | #213 | Chauncey Washington | OFF | -0.23 | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2005 | #185 | Chad Owens | OFF | -0.21 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2003 | #179 | David Young | DEF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2004 | #118 | Anthony Maddox | DEF | -0.32 | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2004 | #150 | Chris Thompson | DEF | -0.43 | -0.09 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2007 | #252 | Andrew Carnahan | OFF | -0.29 | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2008 | #159 | Trae Williams | DEF | -0.46 | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2007 | #150 | Josh Gattis | DEF | -0.46 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2003 | #193 | Marques Ogden | OFF | -0.34 | -0.18 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2007 | #166 | Derek Landri | DEF | +0.03 | -0.41 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2008 | #155 | Thomas Williams | DEF | -0.40 | -0.19 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2007 | #113 | Brian Smith | DEF | -0.54 | -0.19 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2004 | #159 | Sean Bubin | OFF | -0.42 | -0.25 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2004 | #55 | Greg Jones | OFF | +1.00 | +0.57 | — | -0.88 | — | -0.50 | -0.31 | -0.49 |
| 2008 | #8 | Derrick Harvey | DEF | +0.08 | -0.16 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.51 |
| 2004 | #86 | Jorge Cordova | DEF | -0.32 | -0.35 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.59 |
| 2008 | #52 | Quentin Groves | DEF | -0.39 | -0.62 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -1.06 |
| 2003 | #7 | Byron Leftwich | OFF | -0.62 | -0.56 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.63 | -0.14 | -1.44 |
| 2007 | #48 | Justin Durant | DEF | -0.93 | -0.54 | — | -0.89 | — | -0.72 | -0.56 | -2.26 |
| 2005 | #52 | Khalif Barnes | OFF | -1.05 | -0.60 | — | -0.68 | — | -1.14 | -0.83 | -2.49 |
| 2007 | #21 | Reggie Nelson | DEF | -1.36 | -0.95 | — | -1.35 | — | -1.43 | -1.20 | -3.83 |
| 2006 | #28 | Marcedes Lewis | OFF | -0.43 | +0.44 | -2.23 | -2.55 | -1.86 | -4.20 | -4.67 | -7.38 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.