Martin Mayhew
DET · Composite skill θ = -0.43 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.95 to +0.10
Evidence: 53 mapped picks across 7 draft classes, 2009–2015 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.22
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2009–2015DET
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | #76 | DeAndre Levy | DEF | +2.18 |
| 2013 | #132 | Devin Taylor | DEF | +1.13 |
| 2010 | #2 | Ndamukong Suh | DEF | +1.01 |
| 2009 | #33 | Louis Delmas | DEF | +1.00 |
| 2010 | #213 | Willie Young | DEF | +0.98 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | #40 | Kyle Van Noy | DEF | -5.25 |
| 2009 | #1 | Matthew Stafford | OFF | -4.70 |
| 2015 | #28 | Laken Tomlinson | OFF | -3.98 |
| 2015 | #54 | Ameer Abdullah | OFF | -3.60 |
| 2012 | #23 | Riley Reiff | OFF | -3.28 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 53 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2009 | #76 | DeAndre Levy | DEF | +0.92 | +1.40 | +0.18 | +1.29 | +1.70 | -0.16 | -0.12 | +2.18 |
| 2013 | #132 | Devin Taylor | DEF | +0.89 | +0.27 | +1.13 | +0.42 | +0.33 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.13 |
| 2010 | #2 | Ndamukong Suh | DEF | -0.95 | -0.68 | -0.96 | -0.25 | +2.32 | -1.72 | +3.41 | +1.01 |
| 2009 | #33 | Louis Delmas | DEF | +0.48 | +0.94 | +0.36 | +0.36 | +0.59 | -0.10 | -0.06 | +1.00 |
| 2010 | #213 | Willie Young | DEF | +0.18 | -0.14 | +1.02 | -0.07 | +1.40 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.98 |
| 2013 | #36 | Darius Slay | DEF | -0.20 | +0.36 | +0.34 | -0.15 | +0.31 | +1.04 | +0.31 | +0.92 |
| 2014 | #76 | Travis Swanson | OFF | +0.49 | +0.52 | +0.99 | +0.44 | +0.11 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.91 |
| 2015 | #240 | Corey Robinson | OFF | +0.11 | -0.06 | +0.26 | +0.08 | +1.41 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.83 |
| 2013 | #199 | Theo Riddick | OFF | +0.95 | -0.06 | +0.93 | +0.50 | -0.09 | -0.10 | -0.07 | +0.73 |
| 2013 | #65 | Larry Warford | OFF | +0.16 | +0.55 | +0.88 | +0.38 | +0.04 | -0.16 | -0.09 | +0.61 |
| 2014 | #133 | Nevin Lawson | DEF | +0.30 | +0.69 | +0.77 | +0.10 | +0.01 | -0.12 | -0.09 | +0.54 |
| 2012 | #196 | Jonte Green | DEF | +0.13 | +0.09 | +0.94 | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| 2012 | #223 | Travis Lewis | DEF | +0.53 | -0.03 | +0.72 | +0.05 | -0.13 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.36 |
| 2012 | #138 | Tahir Whitehead | DEF | +0.56 | +0.28 | +1.01 | +0.08 | -0.18 | -0.26 | -0.21 | +0.34 |
| 2010 | #66 | Amari Spievey | DEF | +0.10 | +0.28 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.33 |
| 2009 | #115 | Sammie Lee Hill | DEF | +0.47 | -0.06 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.18 |
| 2014 | #189 | T.J. Jones | OFF | +0.33 | -0.06 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +0.01 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.12 |
| 2009 | #192 | Aaron Brown | OFF | +0.11 | +0.06 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 2009 | #255 | Dan Gronkowski | OFF | -0.30 | -0.02 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 2013 | #5 | Ezekiel Ansah | DEF | +0.17 | +0.26 | -0.33 | +0.01 | +0.98 | -0.67 | -0.36 | +0.02 |
| 2009 | #235 | Zack Follett | DEF | +0.00 | -0.02 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 2012 | #148 | Chris Greenwood | DEF | -0.47 | -0.20 | +0.89 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2009 | #20 | Brandon Pettigrew | OFF | +0.83 | +1.14 | +0.13 | +0.18 | -1.42 | -0.27 | -0.12 | -0.11 |
| 2011 | #13 | Nick Fairley | DEF | -0.14 | -0.30 | +0.09 | -0.30 | +0.50 | -0.16 | -0.07 | -0.13 |
| 2014 | #229 | Nate Freese | ST | -0.37 | +0.23 | -1.01 | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 2010 | #255 | Tim Toone | OFF | -0.30 | +0.03 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2013 | #211 | Michael Williams | OFF | -0.49 | -0.14 | -0.31 | +0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2013 | #171 | Corey Fuller | OFF | +0.18 | -0.09 | -0.06 | +0.00 | -0.43 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2011 | #157 | Doug Hogue | DEF | -0.15 | -0.23 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2011 | #44 | Titus Young | OFF | -0.22 | -0.10 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.37 |
| 2014 | #158 | Caraun Reid | DEF | -0.51 | -0.39 | -0.19 | -0.39 | +0.49 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.37 |
| 2009 | #228 | Lydon Murtha | OFF | -0.35 | -0.19 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2011 | #57 | Mikel Leshoure | OFF | -0.41 | -0.05 | +0.10 | -0.22 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.39 |
| 2015 | #113 | Gabe Wright | DEF | -0.51 | -0.29 | +0.14 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2010 | #30 | Jahvid Best | OFF | -0.41 | -0.23 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.47 |
| 2010 | #128 | Jason Fox | OFF | -0.45 | -0.48 | +0.58 | -0.33 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.48 |
| 2011 | #209 | Johnny Culbreath | OFF | -0.42 | -0.25 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2013 | #245 | Brandon Hepburn | DEF | -0.47 | -0.13 | -0.50 | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2009 | #82 | Derrick Williams | OFF | -0.23 | -0.30 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.57 |
| 2012 | #85 | Bill Bentley | DEF | -0.23 | -0.16 | -0.03 | -0.13 | -0.76 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.61 |
| 2012 | #54 | Ryan Broyles | OFF | -0.31 | -0.36 | -0.08 | -0.33 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.63 |
| 2014 | #136 | Larry Webster | DEF | -0.60 | -0.24 | -0.57 | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 2012 | #125 | Ronnell Lewis | DEF | -0.49 | -0.33 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.66 |
| 2015 | #200 | Quandre Diggs | DEF | -0.20 | -0.17 | +0.12 | -0.61 | -0.43 | -0.26 | -0.24 | -0.86 |
| 2015 | #80 | Alex Carter | DEF | -0.77 | -0.46 | -0.98 | -0.33 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.11 |
| 2014 | #10 | Eric Ebron | OFF | -0.46 | -0.66 | -0.30 | -0.65 | +0.25 | -0.87 | -0.43 | -1.33 |
| 2013 | #165 | Sam Martin | ST | +0.28 | -1.40 | -0.37 | -0.76 | -0.59 | -0.57 | -0.62 | -1.77 |
| 2015 | #168 | Michael Burton | OFF | -0.88 | -0.88 | -0.44 | -1.14 | -1.05 | -0.35 | -0.24 | -2.12 |
| 2012 | #23 | Riley Reiff | OFF | -0.66 | -0.43 | -0.27 | -0.79 | -0.98 | -2.34 | -1.57 | -3.28 |
| 2015 | #54 | Ameer Abdullah | OFF | -1.34 | -1.05 | -1.53 | -1.23 | -0.69 | -1.67 | -0.98 | -3.60 |
| 2015 | #28 | Laken Tomlinson | OFF | -1.55 | -1.46 | -0.98 | -1.44 | -0.61 | -2.02 | -1.24 | -3.98 |
| 2009 | #1 | Matthew Stafford | OFF | +0.53 | +1.00 | -0.03 | +1.39 | -0.59 | -7.93 | -3.28 | -4.70 |
| 2014 | #40 | Kyle Van Noy | DEF | -1.81 | -1.89 | -1.93 | -1.87 | -1.33 | -2.01 | -1.53 | -5.25 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.