Jim Irsay/staff
IND · Composite skill θ = -1.33 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -2.11 to -0.54
Evidence: 67 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 1984–1993 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.42
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1984–1993INDOwner family ran personnel after relocation; pre-Tobin
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | #85 | Randy Dixon | OFF | +2.40 |
| 1992 | #105 | Tony McCoy | DEF | +1.89 |
| 1984 | #130 | Kevin Call | OFF | +1.47 |
| 1988 | #129 | John Baylor | DEF | +1.44 |
| 1986 | #86 | Bill Brooks | OFF | +1.34 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | #2 | Cornelius Bennett | DEF | -10.83 |
| 1988 | #76 | Chris Chandler | OFF | -5.67 |
| 1989 | #22 | Andre Rison | OFF | -4.80 |
| 1992 | #29 | Ashley Ambrose | DEF | -4.53 |
| 1990 | #1 | Jeff George | OFF | -4.16 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 67 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1987 | #85 | Randy Dixon | OFF | +1.39 | +1.85 | — | +0.93 | — | -0.19 | -0.11 | +2.40 |
| 1992 | #105 | Tony McCoy | DEF | +1.28 | +1.14 | — | +0.75 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | +1.89 |
| 1984 | #130 | Kevin Call | OFF | +1.54 | +1.12 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.22 | -0.13 | +1.47 |
| 1988 | #129 | John Baylor | DEF | +1.10 | +0.71 | — | +0.56 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +1.44 |
| 1986 | #86 | Bill Brooks | OFF | +0.66 | +1.31 | — | +0.70 | — | -0.44 | -0.24 | +1.34 |
| 1988 | #104 | Michael Ball | DEF | +1.27 | +0.44 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.16 |
| 1991 | #125 | Kerry Cash | OFF | +0.54 | +0.98 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.05 |
| 1986 | #4 | Jon Hand | DEF | +1.03 | +1.14 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.68 | -0.35 | +0.86 |
| 1987 | #142 | Freddie Robinson | DEF | +0.05 | +0.40 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.60 |
| 1984 | #103 | George Wonsley | OFF | +0.93 | +0.04 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.51 |
| 1993 | #49 | Roosevelt Potts | OFF | +0.25 | +0.70 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.51 |
| 1989 | #155 | Quintus McDonald | DEF | +0.46 | +0.18 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.44 |
| 1993 | #92 | Derwin Gray | DEF | +0.79 | -0.32 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.24 |
| 1990 | #148 | Tony Walker | DEF | +0.53 | -0.13 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 1990 | #103 | Alan Grant | DEF | +0.23 | +0.02 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| 1989 | #182 | Ivy Joe Hunter | OFF | +0.38 | +0.10 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 1986 | #172 | Chris White | ST | -0.44 | +0.26 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.16 |
| 1993 | #107 | Devon McDonald | DEF | +0.54 | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.15 |
| 1987 | #170 | Mark Bellini | OFF | +0.20 | -0.02 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 1984 | #66 | Chris Scott | DEF | +0.06 | +0.08 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 1991 | #152 | Mel Agee | DEF | +0.01 | +0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 1993 | #157 | Carlos Etheredge | OFF | -0.22 | -0.09 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 1986 | #117 | Scott Kellar | DEF | -0.13 | +0.10 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 1992 | #85 | Rodney Culver | OFF | +0.17 | -0.11 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 1992 | #169 | Derek Steele | DEF | -0.36 | +0.00 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.16 |
| 1984 | #19 | Ron Solt | OFF | -0.09 | +0.22 | — | -0.27 | — | +0.43 | -0.34 | -0.16 |
| 1993 | #184 | Lance Lewis | OFF | -0.36 | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1991 | #181 | James Bradley | OFF | -0.34 | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1986 | #190 | Tommy Sims | DEF | -0.37 | -0.01 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1989 | #99 | Pat Tomberlin | OFF | -0.19 | -0.13 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1985 | #173 | James Harbour | OFF | -0.21 | -0.06 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1986 | #171 | Steve O'Malley | DEF | -0.42 | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.26 |
| 1989 | #185 | Charles Washington | DEF | -0.18 | -0.19 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1993 | #16 | Sean Dawkins | OFF | +0.12 | +0.20 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.49 | -0.27 | -0.28 |
| 1992 | #141 | Shoun Habersham | OFF | -0.42 | -0.07 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 1989 | #72 | Mitchell Benson | DEF | -0.04 | -0.31 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1987 | #114 | Roy Banks | OFF | -0.17 | -0.18 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1990 | #179 | James Singletary | DEF | -0.45 | -0.09 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1991 | #96 | Mark Vander Poel | OFF | -0.01 | -0.37 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1985 | #61 | Anthony Young | DEF | -0.42 | -0.10 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.40 |
| 1986 | #47 | Jack Trudeau | OFF | -0.04 | +0.06 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.31 | -0.05 | -0.42 |
| 1992 | #113 | Maury Toy | OFF | -0.52 | -0.10 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1984 | #147 | Dwight Beverly | OFF | -0.53 | -0.08 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1990 | #83 | Stacey Simmons | OFF | -0.26 | -0.23 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1991 | #69 | Dave McCloughan | DEF | -0.29 | -0.33 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1984 | #120 | Golden Tate | OFF | -0.57 | -0.20 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 1985 | #117 | Roger Caron | OFF | -0.34 | -0.36 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 1984 | #93 | Craig Curry | DEF | -0.58 | -0.30 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 1990 | #94 | William Schultz | OFF | -0.08 | -0.26 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.67 |
| 1985 | #5 | Duane Bickett | DEF | +0.62 | +1.22 | — | +0.48 | — | -1.81 | -2.40 | -0.71 |
| 1986 | #124 | Gary Walker | OFF | -0.55 | -0.36 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 1992 | #2 | Quentin Coryatt | DEF | +0.19 | +0.29 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.54 | -0.49 | -0.91 |
| 1991 | #40 | Shane Curry | DEF | -0.55 | -0.50 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.92 |
| 1987 | #58 | Chris Gambol | OFF | -0.72 | -0.61 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.17 |
| 1985 | #32 | Don Anderson | DEF | -0.78 | -0.66 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.31 |
| 1993 | #65 | Ray Buchanan | DEF | -0.69 | -0.29 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.50 | -0.40 | -1.47 |
| 1984 | #8 | Leonard Coleman | DEF | -0.52 | -0.81 | — | -0.91 | — | -0.18 | -0.11 | -1.73 |
| 1990 | #106 | Rick Cunningham | OFF | -1.32 | -1.10 | — | -0.99 | — | -0.13 | -0.08 | -2.31 |
| 1992 | #1 | Steve Emtman | DEF | -0.70 | -1.00 | — | -1.41 | — | -0.16 | -0.11 | -2.39 |
| 1990 | #36 | Anthony Johnson | OFF | -0.82 | -0.88 | — | -1.14 | — | -0.94 | -0.54 | -2.73 |
| 1985 | #88 | Willie Broughton | DEF | -1.43 | -1.36 | — | -1.43 | — | -0.45 | -0.21 | -3.15 |
| 1984 | #35 | Blaise Winter | DEF | -1.77 | -1.32 | — | -1.46 | — | -0.73 | -0.31 | -3.53 |
| 1990 | #1 | Jeff George | OFF | -0.88 | -1.03 | — | -1.98 | — | -1.88 | -0.56 | -4.16 |
| 1992 | #29 | Ashley Ambrose | DEF | -1.24 | -1.84 | — | -1.86 | — | -1.24 | -1.01 | -4.53 |
| 1989 | #22 | Andre Rison | OFF | -2.02 | -1.69 | — | -1.81 | — | -1.44 | -0.83 | -4.80 |
| 1988 | #76 | Chris Chandler | OFF | -2.67 | -2.14 | — | -2.57 | — | -1.12 | -0.28 | -5.67 |
| 1987 | #2 | Cornelius Bennett | DEF | -2.36 | -2.25 | — | -2.90 | — | -5.37 | -5.86 | -10.83 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.