Jim Finks
CHI · NO · Composite skill θ = +0.29 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.39 to +0.97
Composite θ
+0.29
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.39–+0.97
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
80%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 81 mapped picks across 12 draft classes, 1980–1993 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.06
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1982CHIExecutive VP; resigned over Ditka hire; remained through 1983 draft
- 1985–1993NOHired Jan 1986; revolutionized Saints; NFL Exec of Year 1987; retired 1993
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | #38 | Mike Singletary | DEF | +18.72 |
| 1986 | #60 | Pat Swilling | DEF | +5.35 |
| 1985 | #179 | Eric Martin | OFF | +5.02 |
| 1989 | #19 | Wayne Martin | DEF | +3.50 |
| 1993 | #8 | Willie Roaf | OFF | +3.39 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | #89 | Lorenzo Neal | OFF | -5.69 |
| 1982 | #5 | Jim McMahon | OFF | -5.07 |
| 1991 | #154 | Fred McAfee | OFF | -3.63 |
| 1985 | #68 | Jack Del Rio | DEF | -2.91 |
| 1988 | #24 | Craig Heyward | OFF | -2.69 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 81 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1981 | #38 | Mike Singletary | DEF | +1.81 | +2.70 | — | +4.85 | — | +9.23 | +13.99 | +18.72 |
| 1986 | #60 | Pat Swilling | DEF | +0.02 | +0.42 | — | +1.76 | — | +3.26 | +3.48 | +5.35 |
| 1985 | #179 | Eric Martin | OFF | +2.00 | +2.29 | — | +2.43 | — | +0.96 | -0.08 | +5.02 |
| 1989 | #19 | Wayne Martin | DEF | +1.94 | +2.41 | — | +1.89 | — | -0.77 | -0.37 | +3.50 |
| 1993 | #8 | Willie Roaf | OFF | +0.41 | +0.90 | — | +1.13 | — | +0.81 | +2.38 | +3.39 |
| 1990 | #14 | Renaldo Turnbull | DEF | +0.95 | +0.23 | — | +0.48 | — | +0.84 | +2.04 | +2.51 |
| 1987 | #179 | Gene Atkins | DEF | +1.14 | +1.44 | — | +1.07 | — | -0.10 | -0.08 | +2.27 |
| 1986 | #31 | Dalton Hilliard | OFF | +1.10 | +0.07 | — | +1.22 | — | +0.72 | -0.18 | +2.07 |
| 1990 | #44 | Vince Buck | DEF | +1.07 | +1.10 | — | +0.77 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +1.81 |
| 1987 | #96 | Steve Trapilo | OFF | +0.57 | +0.83 | — | +0.79 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.46 |
| 1992 | #106 | Sean Lumpkin | DEF | +1.10 | +0.71 | — | +0.52 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.41 |
| 1993 | #109 | Derek Brown | OFF | +0.83 | +0.48 | — | +0.64 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.27 |
| 1993 | #137 | Tyrone Hughes | DEF | +0.89 | -0.04 | — | +0.30 | — | +1.08 | -0.01 | +1.25 |
| 1981 | #95 | Todd Bell | DEF | +0.48 | +0.10 | — | +0.41 | — | +0.87 | -0.13 | +1.07 |
| 1980 | #19 | Otis Wilson | DEF | +0.43 | +0.59 | — | +1.00 | — | -0.28 | -0.79 | +0.97 |
| 1989 | #133 | Kevin Haverdink | OFF | +0.51 | +0.44 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.92 |
| 1980 | #46 | Matt Suhey | OFF | +1.61 | +1.30 | — | +0.22 | — | -1.06 | -0.48 | +0.90 |
| 1991 | #126 | Reggie Jones | DEF | +0.51 | +0.40 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.84 |
| 1988 | #190 | Brian Forde | DEF | +1.10 | -0.06 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.72 |
| 1987 | #40 | Lonzell Hill | OFF | +0.52 | +0.24 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.63 |
| 1986 | #6 | Jim Dombrowski | OFF | +1.29 | +1.37 | — | +0.73 | — | -1.88 | -1.25 | +0.49 |
| 1981 | #150 | Reuben Henderson | DEF | -0.08 | +0.34 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.42 |
| 1981 | #177 | Jeff Fisher | DEF | +0.68 | -0.05 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.34 |
| 1986 | #57 | Rueben Mayes | OFF | +0.05 | +0.22 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.24 | -0.12 | +0.33 |
| 1988 | #112 | Greg Scales | OFF | +0.48 | -0.09 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.33 |
| 1986 | #173 | Gill Fenerty | OFF | +0.11 | +0.15 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.30 |
| 1986 | #115 | Reggie Sutton | DEF | +0.07 | +0.07 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.28 |
| 1993 | #193 | Othello Henderson | DEF | +0.19 | +0.05 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.27 |
| 1982 | #146 | Kurt Becker | OFF | +0.85 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | +0.21 |
| 1982 | #173 | Henry Waechter | DEF | +0.29 | -0.16 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 1990 | #98 | DeMond Winston | DEF | +0.57 | -0.29 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 1982 | #89 | Dennis Gentry | OFF | +1.89 | -0.62 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.57 | -0.28 | -0.07 |
| 1990 | #156 | Mike Buck | OFF | -0.09 | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 1993 | #20 | Irv Smith | OFF | +0.25 | +0.39 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.17 | -0.08 | -0.14 |
| 1987 | #123 | Milton Mack | DEF | +0.49 | -0.40 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.16 |
| 1982 | #62 | Tim Wrightman | OFF | -0.07 | -0.43 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.18 |
| 1992 | #164 | Kary Vincent | DEF | -0.39 | -0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1981 | #67 | Ken Margerum | OFF | +0.19 | -0.02 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.15 | -0.06 | -0.24 |
| 1987 | #152 | Thomas Henley | OFF | -0.44 | -0.08 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1991 | #182 | Hayward Haynes | OFF | -0.36 | -0.19 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1990 | #183 | Scott Hough | OFF | -0.37 | -0.20 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 1985 | #24 | Alvin Toles | DEF | +0.30 | -0.35 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.43 |
| 1986 | #142 | Bob Thompson | OFF | -0.48 | -0.12 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1985 | #38 | Daren Gilbert | OFF | +0.14 | -0.47 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.44 |
| 1992 | #138 | Torrance Small | OFF | +0.27 | -0.55 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.14 | -0.09 | -0.44 |
| 1986 | #88 | Kelvin Edwards | OFF | -0.29 | -0.19 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1980 | #183 | Emanuel Tolbert | OFF | -0.50 | -0.13 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1989 | #106 | Michael Mayes | DEF | -0.50 | -0.20 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1991 | #42 | Wesley Carroll | OFF | -0.08 | -0.35 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.48 |
| 1993 | #165 | Ronnie Dixon | DEF | -0.51 | -0.18 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1988 | #162 | Bob Sims | OFF | -0.43 | -0.25 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1987 | #67 | Michael Adams | DEF | -0.41 | -0.30 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.52 |
| 1992 | #72 | Tyrone Legette | DEF | +0.25 | -0.53 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.52 |
| 1980 | #156 | Mike Guess | DEF | -0.57 | -0.19 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1982 | #134 | Dennis Tabron | DEF | -0.58 | -0.21 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1988 | #106 | Lydell Carr | OFF | -0.58 | -0.15 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 1990 | #158 | James Williams | DEF | +0.35 | -0.50 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.12 | -0.10 | -0.61 |
| 1990 | #125 | Charles Arbuckle | OFF | -0.73 | -0.35 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 1989 | #79 | Kim Phillips | DEF | -0.51 | -0.30 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 1980 | #130 | Paul Tabor | OFF | -0.25 | -0.44 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 1988 | #81 | Tony Stephens | DEF | -0.63 | -0.28 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 1985 | #95 | Billy Allen | DEF | -0.64 | -0.28 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 1989 | #186 | David Griggs | DEF | -0.64 | -0.26 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 1989 | #159 | Floyd Turner | OFF | -0.07 | -0.72 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.13 | -0.08 | -0.73 |
| 1992 | #95 | Gene McGuire | OFF | -0.57 | -0.40 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| 1992 | #21 | Vaughn Dunbar | OFF | -0.31 | -0.44 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.92 |
| 1982 | #116 | Perry Hartnett | OFF | -0.56 | -0.50 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.92 |
| 1993 | #53 | Reggie Freeman | DEF | -0.55 | -0.49 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.93 |
| 1981 | #11 | Keith Van Horne | OFF | +1.62 | +1.91 | — | +0.71 | — | -4.27 | -2.57 | -0.94 |
| 1988 | #134 | Keith Taylor | DEF | -0.54 | -0.36 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.09 | -0.07 | -0.97 |
| 1989 | #46 | Robert Massey | DEF | -0.82 | -0.33 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.25 | -0.16 | -1.28 |
| 1987 | #11 | Shawn Knight | DEF | -0.77 | -0.94 | — | -0.86 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.77 |
| 1988 | #52 | Brett Perriman | OFF | -0.67 | -0.92 | — | -0.91 | — | -0.43 | -0.22 | -2.03 |
| 1990 | #71 | Joel Smeenge | DEF | -0.17 | -1.32 | — | -1.06 | — | -0.30 | -0.15 | -2.04 |
| 1980 | #103 | Arland Thompson | OFF | -1.32 | -1.05 | — | -0.93 | — | -0.17 | -0.08 | -2.24 |
| 1986 | #62 | Barry Word | OFF | -1.24 | -1.05 | — | -1.03 | — | -0.35 | -0.18 | -2.43 |
| 1988 | #24 | Craig Heyward | OFF | -0.60 | -0.50 | — | -1.12 | — | -1.31 | -0.74 | -2.69 |
| 1985 | #68 | Jack Del Rio | DEF | -1.31 | -1.32 | — | -1.12 | — | -0.57 | -0.38 | -2.91 |
| 1991 | #154 | Fred McAfee | OFF | +0.02 | -2.08 | — | -2.36 | — | +0.25 | -0.73 | -3.63 |
| 1982 | #5 | Jim McMahon | OFF | -1.48 | -1.32 | — | -1.27 | — | -3.70 | -1.11 | -5.07 |
| 1993 | #89 | Lorenzo Neal | OFF | -1.89 | -1.70 | — | -2.55 | — | -1.50 | -1.20 | -5.69 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.