Ryan Poles
CHI · Composite skill θ = +0.01 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.63 to +1.65
Evidence: 34 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 2022–2025 · 34% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.28
- maturity discount
- -0.02
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2022–2025CHI
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #255 | Trenton Gill | ST | +1.21 |
| 2022 | #168 | Braxton Jones | OFF | +1.07 |
| 2023 | #53 | Gervon Dexter | DEF | +1.02 |
| 2025 | #233 | Kyle Monangai | OFF | +0.92 |
| 2023 | #56 | Tyrique Stevenson | DEF | +0.92 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #71 | Velus Jones Jr. | OFF | -0.83 |
| 2024 | #9 | Rome Odunze | OFF | -0.68 |
| 2025 | #56 | Ozzy Trapilo | OFF | -0.64 |
| 2022 | #203 | Trestan Ebner | OFF | -0.48 |
| 2023 | #64 | Zacch Pickens | DEF | -0.46 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 34 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2022 | #255 | Trenton Gill | ST | +0.58 | +0.40 | +1.06 | +0.54 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.21 |
| 2022 | #168 | Braxton Jones | OFF | +0.54 | +0.82 | +0.78 | +0.54 | +0.22 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.07 |
| 2023 | #53 | Gervon Dexter | DEF | +0.44 | +0.46 | +0.53 | +0.41 | +0.73 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.02 |
| 2025 | #233 | Kyle Monangai | OFF | +0.37 | +0.35 | +0.82 | +0.40 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.92 |
| 2023 | #56 | Tyrique Stevenson | DEF | +0.35 | +0.65 | +0.47 | +0.30 | +0.65 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.92 |
| 2024 | #122 | Tory Taylor | ST | +0.43 | +0.26 | — | +0.51 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.85 |
| 2023 | #165 | Terell Smith | DEF | +0.38 | +0.23 | +0.46 | +0.25 | +0.73 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.84 |
| 2022 | #254 | Elijah Hicks | DEF | +1.06 | +0.32 | +0.57 | +0.30 | +0.00 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.79 |
| 2024 | #144 | Austin Booker | DEF | +0.34 | +0.26 | +0.53 | +0.23 | +0.11 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.54 |
| 2025 | #10 | Colston Loveland | OFF | -0.41 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.32 | +2.18 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.42 |
| 2022 | #48 | Jaquan Brisker | DEF | +0.33 | +0.80 | +0.42 | +0.19 | -0.34 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.36 |
| 2025 | #195 | Luke Newman | OFF | +0.12 | +0.02 | +0.39 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.24 |
| 2025 | #169 | Zah Frazier | DEF | -0.14 | +0.16 | +0.11 | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| 2023 | #148 | Noah Sewell | DEF | +0.31 | +0.05 | -0.17 | +0.07 | +0.17 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.16 |
| 2023 | #133 | Tyler Scott | OFF | +0.37 | +0.12 | +0.17 | +0.06 | -0.18 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.15 |
| 2022 | #174 | Dominique Robinson | DEF | +0.57 | +0.04 | +0.32 | +0.13 | -0.43 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.14 |
| 2023 | #10 | Darnell Wright | OFF | +0.15 | +0.17 | +0.45 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.17 | -0.08 | +0.13 |
| 2024 | #1 | Caleb Williams | OFF | +0.31 | -0.03 | +0.12 | -0.30 | +0.31 | -0.10 | -0.02 | +0.08 |
| 2023 | #258 | Kendall Williamson | DEF | -0.26 | +0.05 | +0.31 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 2022 | #39 | Kyler Gordon | DEF | +0.11 | +0.25 | -0.08 | -0.02 | +0.08 | -0.12 | -0.06 | +0.04 |
| 2025 | #132 | Ruben Hyppolite | DEF | -0.13 | +0.03 | -0.12 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 2022 | #207 | Doug Kramer | OFF | +0.12 | -0.17 | -0.11 | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2022 | #186 | Zachary Thomas | OFF | -0.36 | -0.21 | +0.35 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2023 | #115 | Roschon Johnson | OFF | +0.31 | -0.15 | +0.12 | +0.06 | -0.64 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.22 |
| 2023 | #218 | Travis Bell | DEF | -0.31 | +0.02 | -0.44 | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.24 |
| 2024 | #75 | Kiran Amegadjie | OFF | -0.21 | -0.24 | -0.01 | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2025 | #39 | Luther Burden | OFF | -0.17 | -0.18 | -0.30 | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2022 | #226 | Ja'Tyre Carter | OFF | -0.16 | -0.25 | -0.50 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 2025 | #62 | Shemar Turner | DEF | -0.30 | -0.16 | -0.38 | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.45 |
| 2023 | #64 | Zacch Pickens | DEF | -0.07 | -0.31 | -0.41 | -0.19 | -0.16 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2022 | #203 | Trestan Ebner | OFF | -0.11 | -0.10 | -0.66 | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.48 |
| 2025 | #56 | Ozzy Trapilo | OFF | -0.13 | -0.23 | -0.10 | -0.21 | -0.73 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 2024 | #9 | Rome Odunze | OFF | -0.18 | -0.23 | +0.09 | -0.44 | -0.55 | -0.11 | -0.04 | -0.68 |
| 2022 | #71 | Velus Jones Jr. | OFF | -0.16 | -0.44 | -0.82 | -0.31 | -0.29 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.83 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.