John Thompson
SEA · Composite skill θ = +0.26 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.56 to +1.07
Evidence: 14 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 1980–1981 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.10
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1981SEAGM Seattle Seahawks 1976-1982; pre-McCormack
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | #4 | Kenny Easley | DEF | +7.77 |
| 1980 | #10 | Jacob Green | DEF | +2.76 |
| 1981 | #114 | Edwin Bailey | OFF | +2.41 |
| 1981 | #31 | David Hughes | OFF | -0.10 |
| 1981 | #186 | Brad Scovill | OFF | -0.27 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | #170 | Ron Johnson | OFF | -2.08 |
| 1980 | #44 | Andre Hines | OFF | -1.44 |
| 1981 | #58 | Bill Dugan | OFF | -1.35 |
| 1981 | #87 | Scott Phillips | OFF | -0.91 |
| 1980 | #127 | Joe Steele | OFF | -0.72 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 14 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1981 | #4 | Kenny Easley | DEF | +0.57 | +0.78 | — | +1.51 | — | +5.01 | +6.14 | +7.77 |
| 1980 | #10 | Jacob Green | DEF | +1.42 | +2.27 | — | +1.81 | — | -0.16 | -1.62 | +2.76 |
| 1981 | #114 | Edwin Bailey | OFF | +1.43 | +1.74 | — | +1.18 | — | -0.46 | -0.26 | +2.41 |
| 1981 | #31 | David Hughes | OFF | +0.48 | -0.09 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.20 | -0.08 | -0.10 |
| 1981 | #186 | Brad Scovill | OFF | -0.54 | -0.16 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1980 | #153 | Mark McNeal | DEF | -0.57 | -0.18 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1981 | #140 | Steve Durham | DEF | -0.57 | -0.19 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 1980 | #132 | Daniel Jacobs | DEF | -0.61 | -0.23 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1980 | #97 | Terry Dion | DEF | -0.49 | -0.27 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 1980 | #127 | Joe Steele | OFF | -0.66 | -0.20 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.72 |
| 1981 | #87 | Scott Phillips | OFF | -0.72 | -0.35 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 1981 | #58 | Bill Dugan | OFF | -0.28 | -0.91 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.16 | -0.07 | -1.35 |
| 1980 | #44 | Andre Hines | OFF | -0.72 | -0.81 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -1.44 |
| 1981 | #170 | Ron Johnson | OFF | -1.33 | -0.86 | — | -0.89 | — | -0.14 | -0.07 | -2.08 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.