Jeff Ireland
MIA · Composite skill θ = -0.31 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.88 to +0.27
Evidence: 50 mapped picks across 6 draft classes, 2008–2013 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.01
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2008–2013MIA
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #163 | Reshad Jones | DEF | +3.04 |
| 2008 | #1 | Jake Long | OFF | +1.53 |
| 2009 | #108 | Brian Hartline | OFF | +1.49 |
| 2009 | #165 | Chris Clemons | DEF | +1.30 |
| 2011 | #235 | Jimmy Wilson | DEF | +1.29 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | #3 | Dion Jordan | DEF | -4.25 |
| 2008 | #57 | Chad Henne | OFF | -4.11 |
| 2009 | #25 | Vontae Davis | DEF | -2.37 |
| 2013 | #54 | Jamar Taylor | DEF | -1.80 |
| 2009 | #181 | Andrew Gardner | OFF | -1.64 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 50 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2010 | #163 | Reshad Jones | DEF | +1.58 | +2.08 | +0.93 | +1.28 | +0.92 | +0.94 | -0.13 | +3.04 |
| 2008 | #1 | Jake Long | OFF | -0.05 | -0.16 | — | -0.33 | — | +3.03 | +0.88 | +1.53 |
| 2009 | #108 | Brian Hartline | OFF | +1.25 | +1.33 | +1.04 | +0.91 | -0.21 | -0.07 | -0.04 | +1.49 |
| 2009 | #165 | Chris Clemons | DEF | +0.89 | +0.87 | +1.14 | +0.51 | +0.24 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.30 |
| 2011 | #235 | Jimmy Wilson | DEF | +1.09 | +0.55 | +1.81 | +0.46 | -0.16 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.29 |
| 2011 | #174 | Charles Clay | OFF | +0.06 | +0.41 | +0.73 | +0.05 | +1.46 | -0.12 | -0.07 | +1.05 |
| 2013 | #104 | Jelani Jenkins | DEF | +0.53 | +0.54 | +0.96 | +0.32 | +0.19 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.90 |
| 2010 | #252 | Austin Spitler | DEF | +0.93 | -0.07 | +1.22 | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.83 |
| 2010 | #40 | Koa Misi | DEF | +0.69 | +0.96 | -0.15 | +0.55 | +0.20 | -0.19 | -0.12 | +0.73 |
| 2008 | #204 | Lex Hilliard | OFF | +0.78 | +0.14 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2013 | #166 | Caleb Sturgis | ST | +0.04 | -0.02 | +1.11 | +0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | +0.55 |
| 2012 | #227 | Rishard Matthews | OFF | +0.41 | +0.08 | +1.10 | +0.01 | -0.35 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.33 |
| 2013 | #77 | Dallas Thomas | OFF | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.12 | +0.33 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.26 |
| 2013 | #250 | Don Jones | DEF | +0.10 | -0.05 | +0.47 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| 2010 | #145 | Nolan Carroll | DEF | +0.28 | +0.01 | +0.56 | -0.08 | +0.04 | -0.08 | -0.06 | +0.20 |
| 2012 | #97 | Lamar Miller | OFF | -0.04 | +0.33 | +0.86 | +0.08 | +0.08 | -0.33 | -0.20 | +0.19 |
| 2013 | #106 | Dion Sims | OFF | +0.44 | +0.07 | +0.66 | +0.06 | -0.40 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.17 |
| 2008 | #245 | Lionel Dotson | DEF | -0.12 | +0.05 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2008 | #195 | Donald Thomas | OFF | -0.18 | -0.04 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 2012 | #215 | Kheeston Randall | DEF | -0.11 | -0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 2011 | #62 | Daniel Thomas | OFF | +0.46 | -0.33 | +0.50 | +0.12 | -0.62 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| 2009 | #61 | Sean Smith | DEF | -0.05 | +0.38 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.27 | -0.19 | -0.16 |
| 2011 | #231 | Frank Kearse | DEF | -0.36 | -0.01 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 2009 | #161 | John Nalbone | OFF | -0.46 | -0.16 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2010 | #212 | Chris McCoy | DEF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.19 |
| 2012 | #78 | Michael Egnew | OFF | -0.35 | -0.31 | +0.29 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.28 |
| 2011 | #15 | Mike Pouncey | OFF | +0.37 | +0.73 | -0.21 | +0.39 | -0.18 | -0.87 | -0.54 | -0.29 |
| 2012 | #155 | Josh Kaddu | DEF | -0.49 | -0.25 | +0.57 | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2012 | #42 | Jonathan Martin | OFF | -0.35 | -0.17 | +0.34 | -0.20 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.32 |
| 2009 | #214 | J.D. Folsom | DEF | -0.40 | -0.10 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2008 | #66 | Kendall Langford | DEF | -0.20 | +0.19 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.29 | -0.15 | -0.37 |
| 2012 | #183 | B.J. Cunningham | OFF | -0.46 | -0.11 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2012 | #72 | Olivier Vernon | DEF | -0.12 | +0.04 | +0.69 | -0.16 | -0.47 | -0.34 | -0.24 | -0.40 |
| 2010 | #28 | Jared Odrick | DEF | +0.25 | +0.08 | +0.75 | +0.03 | -1.48 | -0.17 | -0.07 | -0.49 |
| 2011 | #111 | Clyde Gates | OFF | -0.24 | -0.26 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2009 | #44 | Pat White | OFF | -0.19 | -0.37 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 2013 | #93 | Will Davis | DEF | -0.35 | -0.37 | -0.26 | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.61 |
| 2013 | #164 | Mike Gillislee | OFF | -0.67 | -0.29 | +0.03 | -0.32 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.67 |
| 2009 | #87 | Patrick Turner | OFF | -0.60 | -0.31 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.73 |
| 2010 | #119 | A.J. Edds | DEF | -0.66 | -0.31 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.76 |
| 2008 | #32 | Phillip Merling | DEF | +0.07 | -0.67 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.78 |
| 2008 | #110 | Shawn Murphy | OFF | -0.58 | -0.41 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.79 |
| 2008 | #176 | Jalen Parmele | OFF | -0.84 | -0.37 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.05 |
| 2010 | #73 | John Jerry | OFF | -0.40 | -0.26 | -0.17 | -0.50 | -0.81 | -0.43 | -0.28 | -1.27 |
| 2012 | #8 | Ryan Tannehill | OFF | -0.18 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.26 | -0.67 | -2.15 | -0.49 | -1.52 |
| 2009 | #181 | Andrew Gardner | OFF | -1.02 | -0.80 | — | -0.68 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.64 |
| 2013 | #54 | Jamar Taylor | DEF | -0.67 | -0.84 | -0.64 | -0.73 | -0.99 | -0.26 | -0.18 | -1.80 |
| 2009 | #25 | Vontae Davis | DEF | -0.92 | -0.68 | — | -0.92 | — | -0.74 | -0.56 | -2.37 |
| 2008 | #57 | Chad Henne | OFF | -1.80 | -1.39 | — | -1.74 | — | -1.23 | -0.30 | -4.11 |
| 2013 | #3 | Dion Jordan | DEF | -1.14 | -1.82 | -1.45 | -1.82 | -2.58 | -0.74 | -0.43 | -4.25 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.