John Schneider
SEA · Composite skill θ = +0.32 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.70 to +1.34
Composite θ
+0.32
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.70–+1.34
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
73%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 146 mapped picks across 16 draft classes, 2010–2025 · 79% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.10
- maturity discount
- -0.09
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2010–2025SEA
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | #47 | Bobby Wagner | DEF | +12.86 |
| 2011 | #154 | Richard Sherman | DEF | +8.59 |
| 2012 | #75 | Russell Wilson | OFF | +7.69 |
| 2010 | #14 | Earl Thomas | DEF | +7.21 |
| 2010 | #133 | Kam Chancellor | DEF | +4.09 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | #15 | Bruce Irvin | DEF | -3.02 |
| 2010 | #6 | Russell Okung | OFF | -2.93 |
| 2011 | #25 | James Carpenter | OFF | -2.90 |
| 2016 | #94 | Nick Vannett | OFF | -2.33 |
| 2019 | #47 | Marquise Blair | DEF | -1.90 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 146 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2012 | #47 | Bobby Wagner | DEF | +1.12 | +2.18 | +2.81 | +3.90 | +1.99 | +5.08 | +10.69 | +12.86 |
| 2011 | #154 | Richard Sherman | DEF | +0.76 | +1.45 | +1.24 | +2.81 | +5.01 | +0.84 | +6.22 | +8.59 |
| 2012 | #75 | Russell Wilson | OFF | +1.41 | +2.39 | +1.90 | +4.75 | +1.57 | +5.51 | -0.24 | +7.69 |
| 2010 | #14 | Earl Thomas | DEF | +0.94 | +1.59 | -0.10 | +2.14 | +2.79 | +2.24 | +5.63 | +7.21 |
| 2010 | #133 | Kam Chancellor | DEF | +1.49 | +1.84 | +1.15 | +1.78 | +2.48 | +1.01 | -0.06 | +4.09 |
| 2019 | #64 | D.K. Metcalf | OFF | +1.01 | +1.61 | +1.76 | +1.61 | +1.20 | +1.85 | -0.15 | +3.72 |
| 2015 | #69 | Tyler Lockett | OFF | +1.80 | +2.10 | +2.73 | +2.02 | +0.49 | -1.07 | +1.54 | +3.69 |
| 2023 | #20 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | OFF | +0.30 | +0.21 | +0.42 | +0.59 | +1.84 | +2.06 | +2.10 | +3.60 |
| 2023 | #5 | Devon Witherspoon | DEF | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.23 | -0.02 | +2.35 | +3.11 | -0.10 | +2.73 |
| 2017 | #249 | Chris Carson | OFF | +0.70 | +1.26 | +1.48 | +1.22 | +1.60 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +2.54 |
| 2011 | #99 | K.J. Wright | DEF | +1.48 | +2.37 | +2.02 | +1.82 | +0.22 | -0.50 | -0.40 | +2.53 |
| 2018 | #149 | Michael Dickson | ST | +1.92 | -0.53 | +0.28 | +0.58 | +0.19 | +0.92 | +2.01 | +2.41 |
| 2022 | #153 | Riq Woolen | DEF | +0.95 | +1.22 | +1.80 | +0.84 | +0.73 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +2.08 |
| 2012 | #225 | J.R. Sweezy | DEF | +0.58 | +1.01 | +1.65 | +0.80 | +0.92 | -0.06 | -0.04 | +1.89 |
| 2022 | #41 | Kenneth Walker III | OFF | +0.42 | +0.86 | +0.33 | +0.68 | +0.71 | -0.17 | -0.07 | +1.11 |
| 2024 | #121 | AJ Barner | OFF | +0.40 | +0.53 | +0.60 | +0.44 | +0.61 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.03 |
| 2011 | #173 | Byron Maxwell | DEF | +0.43 | +0.16 | +0.91 | +0.23 | +0.70 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.92 |
| 2020 | #69 | Damien Lewis | OFF | +0.30 | +0.71 | +0.56 | +0.43 | +0.64 | -0.21 | -0.10 | +0.91 |
| 2024 | #118 | Tyrice Knight | DEF | +0.30 | +0.21 | +0.16 | +0.23 | +1.08 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.87 |
| 2022 | #72 | Abraham Lucas | OFF | +0.28 | +0.59 | +0.29 | +0.52 | +0.45 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.82 |
| 2022 | #109 | Coby Bryant | DEF | +0.70 | +0.58 | +0.62 | +0.35 | +0.01 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.77 |
| 2023 | #108 | Anthony Bradford | OFF | +0.45 | +0.64 | +0.56 | +0.35 | +0.10 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.75 |
| 2012 | #172 | Jeremy Lane | DEF | +1.00 | +0.26 | +0.71 | +0.26 | -0.32 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.61 |
| 2014 | #64 | Justin Britt | OFF | +0.44 | +0.96 | +0.70 | +0.66 | -0.27 | -0.46 | -0.27 | +0.53 |
| 2023 | #237 | Kenny McIntosh | OFF | +0.35 | +0.24 | +0.42 | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.47 |
| 2017 | #111 | Tedric Thompson | DEF | -0.05 | +0.05 | +0.15 | +0.07 | +0.82 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.46 |
| 2025 | #175 | Robbie Ouzts | OFF | +0.12 | +0.18 | +0.14 | +0.31 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.46 |
| 2016 | #215 | Joey Hunt | OFF | +0.31 | -0.03 | +0.25 | +0.08 | +0.50 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.45 |
| 2017 | #90 | Shaquill Griffin | DEF | -0.21 | +0.31 | +0.42 | -0.06 | +0.19 | +0.70 | -0.27 | +0.44 |
| 2013 | #158 | Luke Willson | OFF | +0.86 | +0.45 | +0.35 | +0.07 | -0.14 | -0.11 | -0.06 | +0.43 |
| 2024 | #179 | Sataoa Laumea | OFF | +0.06 | +0.19 | +0.70 | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.43 |
| 2016 | #49 | Jarran Reed | DEF | +0.88 | +0.94 | +1.19 | +0.51 | -0.55 | -0.76 | -0.35 | +0.43 |
| 2022 | #40 | Boye Mafe | DEF | +0.62 | +0.26 | +0.14 | +0.17 | +0.10 | -0.10 | -0.03 | +0.42 |
| 2025 | #238 | Ricky White | OFF | +0.05 | +0.28 | +0.44 | +0.16 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.42 |
| 2010 | #185 | Anthony McCoy | OFF | +0.17 | +0.08 | +0.51 | +0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.41 |
| 2012 | #232 | Greg Scruggs | DEF | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.13 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.40 |
| 2013 | #242 | Michael Bowie | OFF | -0.18 | -0.02 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.92 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.40 |
| 2025 | #166 | Tory Horton | OFF | +0.06 | +0.25 | +0.33 | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.37 |
| 2023 | #154 | Olusegun Oluwatimi | OFF | +0.42 | +0.06 | -0.07 | +0.06 | +0.39 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.35 |
| 2021 | #208 | Stone Forsythe | OFF | +0.62 | -0.08 | -0.01 | +0.08 | +0.31 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.34 |
| 2023 | #37 | Derick Hall | DEF | +0.34 | -0.11 | -0.05 | +0.07 | +0.49 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.30 |
| 2025 | #223 | Damien Martinez | OFF | -0.06 | +0.31 | +0.27 | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| 2024 | #16 | Byron Murphy | DEF | -0.07 | +0.00 | -0.01 | -0.09 | +0.78 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.28 |
| 2025 | #234 | Mason Richman | OFF | +0.02 | +0.08 | +0.50 | +0.06 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.26 |
| 2024 | #207 | Michael Jerrell | OFF | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.52 | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| 2025 | #192 | Bryce Cabeldue | OFF | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.34 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 |
| 2023 | #52 | Zach Charbonnet | OFF | +0.41 | -0.20 | +0.37 | +0.29 | -0.17 | -0.09 | -0.04 | +0.19 |
| 2025 | #92 | Jalen Milroe | OFF | +0.07 | +0.15 | +0.10 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| 2018 | #146 | Tre Flowers | DEF | -0.16 | +0.25 | +0.64 | -0.05 | +0.09 | -0.17 | -0.12 | +0.12 |
| 2025 | #142 | Rylie Mills | DEF | -0.09 | +0.13 | +0.05 | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| 2021 | #137 | Tre Brown | DEF | +0.15 | -0.07 | +0.30 | -0.05 | +0.09 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.10 |
| 2024 | #192 | D.J. James | DEF | -0.23 | +0.08 | +0.13 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 2018 | #79 | Rasheem Green | DEF | +0.23 | -0.02 | +0.45 | +0.05 | -0.24 | -0.10 | -0.04 | +0.06 |
| 2023 | #123 | Cameron Young | DEF | +0.08 | +0.02 | -0.06 | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 2018 | #120 | Will Dissly | OFF | +0.34 | +0.83 | +0.19 | -0.11 | -0.40 | -0.25 | -0.12 | +0.01 |
| 2010 | #245 | Jameson Konz | OFF | -0.35 | -0.05 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2010 | #111 | Walter Thurmond | DEF | +0.02 | -0.21 | +0.54 | -0.09 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.00 |
| 2024 | #136 | Nehemiah Pritchett | DEF | +0.31 | +0.00 | -0.03 | +0.09 | -0.26 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| 2013 | #87 | Jordan Hill | DEF | -0.06 | -0.34 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.19 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2010 | #236 | Dexter Davis | DEF | -0.04 | -0.09 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2020 | #214 | Freddie Swain | OFF | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.22 | -0.01 | -0.48 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.13 |
| 2018 | #220 | Alex McGough | OFF | -0.22 | +0.00 | -0.17 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.16 |
| 2022 | #9 | Charles Cross | OFF | +0.30 | +0.37 | +0.50 | +0.06 | -0.77 | -0.28 | -0.13 | -0.17 |
| 2013 | #231 | Ty Powell | DEF | -0.40 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 2016 | #171 | Alex Collins | OFF | -0.19 | -0.14 | -0.32 | -0.11 | +0.28 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.19 |
| 2011 | #205 | Pep Levingston | DEF | -0.31 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.20 |
| 2014 | #208 | Eric Pinkins | DEF | -0.32 | -0.12 | -0.20 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2015 | #209 | Obum Gwacham | DEF | -0.48 | -0.12 | +0.12 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2013 | #138 | Tharold Simon | DEF | -0.32 | -0.10 | -0.23 | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.25 |
| 2015 | #248 | Ryan Murphy | DEF | -0.43 | -0.09 | -0.10 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2022 | #229 | Bo Melton | OFF | -0.44 | -0.11 | +0.19 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2018 | #141 | Shaquem Griffin | DEF | +0.33 | -0.38 | -0.15 | -0.18 | -0.14 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.27 |
| 2013 | #241 | Jared Smith | DEF | -0.38 | -0.04 | -0.38 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.28 |
| 2020 | #27 | Jordyn Brooks | DEF | +0.07 | +0.33 | +0.38 | -0.04 | -0.43 | -0.41 | -0.23 | -0.30 |
| 2025 | #50 | Elijah Arroyo | OFF | -0.22 | -0.19 | -0.49 | +0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2023 | #151 | Mike Morris | DEF | +0.36 | -0.10 | +0.05 | +0.02 | -0.81 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2013 | #220 | Ryan Seymour | OFF | -0.44 | -0.27 | +0.30 | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2012 | #181 | Winston Guy | DEF | -0.43 | -0.13 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2017 | #95 | Lano Hill | DEF | +0.22 | -0.28 | -0.43 | -0.10 | -0.26 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.38 |
| 2023 | #198 | Jerrick Reed | DEF | +0.12 | -0.04 | -0.37 | +0.00 | -0.55 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2015 | #63 | Frank Clark | DEF | -0.02 | -0.33 | -0.09 | -0.13 | +0.17 | -0.37 | -0.17 | -0.40 |
| 2020 | #251 | Stephen Sullivan | OFF | -0.57 | -0.25 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2014 | #45 | Paul Richardson | OFF | +0.04 | -0.27 | -0.04 | -0.23 | -0.21 | -0.15 | -0.07 | -0.42 |
| 2011 | #156 | Mark LeGree | DEF | -0.51 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2025 | #35 | Nick Emmanwori | ST | -0.23 | -0.07 | -0.22 | -0.18 | -0.29 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2022 | #233 | Dareke Young | OFF | +0.58 | -0.10 | -0.02 | -0.12 | -1.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 2017 | #226 | David Moore | OFF | -0.18 | -0.48 | +0.05 | -0.35 | +0.12 | -0.15 | -0.10 | -0.45 |
| 2020 | #133 | Colby Parkinson | OFF | +0.29 | -0.51 | -0.21 | -0.07 | -0.39 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -0.45 |
| 2011 | #75 | John Moffitt | OFF | -0.33 | -0.17 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.45 |
| 2010 | #127 | E.J. Wilson | DEF | -0.50 | -0.19 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2014 | #227 | Kiero Small | OFF | -0.45 | -0.03 | -0.54 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2015 | #214 | Kristjan Sokoli | DEF | -0.44 | -0.11 | -0.64 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2016 | #90 | C.J. Prosise | OFF | -0.20 | -0.32 | -0.56 | -0.16 | +0.00 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.49 |
| 2016 | #243 | Kenny Lawler | OFF | -0.44 | -0.10 | -0.56 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2024 | #81 | Christian Haynes | OFF | +0.07 | -0.39 | -0.48 | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2018 | #168 | Jamarco Jones | OFF | -0.18 | -0.62 | -0.60 | -0.37 | +0.43 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.51 |
| 2020 | #148 | Alton Robinson | DEF | +0.00 | -0.27 | -0.73 | -0.10 | -0.21 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.51 |
| 2016 | #247 | Zac Brooks | OFF | -0.47 | -0.05 | -0.64 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 2019 | #124 | Phil Haynes | OFF | -0.03 | -0.23 | -0.60 | -0.18 | -0.23 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.53 |
| 2017 | #102 | Nazair Jones | DEF | -0.28 | -0.34 | -0.82 | -0.17 | +0.10 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.55 |
| 2012 | #114 | Jaye Howard | DEF | -0.57 | -0.26 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2014 | #172 | Jimmy Staten | DEF | -0.52 | -0.16 | -0.79 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2014 | #123 | Kevin Norwood | OFF | -0.42 | -0.22 | -0.49 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| 2019 | #204 | Travis Homer | OFF | +0.17 | -0.48 | +0.22 | -0.22 | -0.76 | -0.12 | -0.07 | -0.61 |
| 2016 | #97 | Rees Odhiambo | OFF | -0.41 | -0.40 | -0.51 | -0.27 | -0.01 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.62 |
| 2011 | #107 | Kris Durham | OFF | -0.54 | -0.27 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.66 |
| 2017 | #187 | Michael Tyson | DEF | -0.58 | -0.22 | -0.73 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| 2019 | #236 | John Ursua | OFF | -0.46 | -0.18 | -0.83 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 2012 | #106 | Robert Turbin | OFF | -0.09 | -0.70 | -0.44 | -0.26 | +0.01 | -0.20 | -0.11 | -0.69 |
| 2014 | #199 | Garrett Scott | OFF | -0.49 | -0.32 | -0.62 | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 2013 | #137 | Jesse Williams | DEF | -0.58 | -0.21 | -0.87 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 2020 | #144 | DeeJay Dallas | OFF | +0.51 | -0.43 | +0.34 | -0.24 | -1.32 | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.73 |
| 2011 | #242 | Malcolm Smith | DEF | -0.33 | -0.78 | +0.16 | -0.71 | +0.21 | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.73 |
| 2019 | #209 | Demarcus Christmas | DEF | -0.58 | -0.21 | -0.97 | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| 2013 | #62 | Christine Michael | OFF | -0.41 | -0.37 | -0.97 | -0.25 | +0.04 | -0.13 | -0.07 | -0.79 |
| 2017 | #210 | Justin Senior | OFF | -0.54 | -0.37 | -0.65 | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.80 |
| 2022 | #158 | Tyreke Smith | DEF | -0.55 | -0.22 | -1.11 | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.81 |
| 2013 | #123 | Chris Harper | OFF | -0.61 | -0.26 | -0.93 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 2025 | #18 | Grey Zabel | OFF | -0.28 | -0.30 | -0.10 | -0.43 | -0.73 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 2017 | #106 | Amara Darboh | OFF | -0.36 | -0.39 | -0.97 | -0.30 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.91 |
| 2019 | #132 | Ugo Amadi | DEF | -0.01 | -0.40 | -0.20 | -0.35 | -0.92 | -0.13 | -0.09 | -0.94 |
| 2016 | #147 | Quinton Jefferson | DEF | -0.31 | -0.43 | -0.27 | -0.52 | -0.40 | -0.26 | -0.13 | -1.00 |
| 2019 | #142 | Ben Burr-Kirven | DEF | -0.03 | -0.43 | -1.02 | -0.29 | -0.65 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.01 |
| 2019 | #88 | Cody Barton | DEF | +0.22 | -0.50 | +0.00 | -0.37 | -1.12 | -0.24 | -0.15 | -1.02 |
| 2020 | #48 | Darrell Taylor | DEF | -0.05 | -0.54 | -0.48 | -0.38 | -0.73 | -0.20 | -0.07 | -1.05 |
| 2015 | #130 | Terry Poole | OFF | -0.66 | -0.48 | -1.03 | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.09 |
| 2013 | #194 | Spencer Ware | OFF | -0.84 | -0.41 | -0.51 | -0.46 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.10 |
| 2010 | #60 | Golden Tate | OFF | -0.63 | -0.66 | -0.54 | -0.61 | +0.84 | -0.76 | -0.46 | -1.11 |
| 2016 | #31 | Germain Ifedi | OFF | -0.42 | -0.05 | +0.30 | -0.19 | -0.53 | -0.98 | -0.54 | -1.18 |
| 2015 | #170 | Tye Smith | DEF | -0.87 | -0.56 | -0.59 | -0.46 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | -1.18 |
| 2018 | #27 | Rashaad Penny | OFF | -0.32 | -0.70 | -1.35 | -0.38 | +0.15 | -0.41 | -0.19 | -1.20 |
| 2019 | #120 | Gary Jennings Jr | OFF | -0.77 | -0.40 | -1.39 | -0.35 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.24 |
| 2014 | #108 | Cassius Marsh | DEF | -0.39 | -0.82 | -0.08 | -0.53 | -0.97 | -0.13 | -0.06 | -1.27 |
| 2017 | #58 | Ethan Pocic | OFF | -0.38 | -0.42 | -0.91 | -0.44 | -0.04 | -0.70 | -0.39 | -1.35 |
| 2021 | #56 | D'Wayne Eskridge | OFF | -0.46 | -0.71 | -1.10 | -0.55 | -0.49 | -0.17 | -0.07 | -1.40 |
| 2012 | #154 | Korey Toomer | DEF | -1.01 | -0.61 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.41 |
| 2019 | #29 | L.J. Collier | DEF | -0.43 | -0.79 | -1.13 | -0.66 | -0.16 | -0.41 | -0.16 | -1.48 |
| 2018 | #186 | Jacob Martin | DEF | -0.91 | -0.86 | -0.18 | -0.73 | -1.08 | -0.14 | -0.11 | -1.67 |
| 2015 | #134 | Mark Glowinski | OFF | -0.82 | -0.86 | -0.54 | -0.84 | -0.49 | -0.36 | -0.24 | -1.71 |
| 2017 | #35 | Malik McDowell | DEF | -1.03 | -0.77 | -1.45 | -0.65 | — | -0.10 | -0.04 | -1.80 |
| 2014 | #132 | Kevin Pierre-Louis | DEF | -0.71 | -1.04 | -0.69 | -0.85 | -0.84 | -0.22 | -0.17 | -1.84 |
| 2019 | #47 | Marquise Blair | DEF | -0.67 | -0.83 | -1.36 | -0.67 | -0.90 | -0.21 | -0.12 | -1.90 |
| 2016 | #94 | Nick Vannett | OFF | -0.85 | -0.95 | -1.14 | -0.91 | -0.88 | -0.61 | -0.31 | -2.33 |
| 2011 | #25 | James Carpenter | OFF | -1.17 | -1.01 | -0.77 | -1.06 | -0.36 | -1.47 | -0.95 | -2.90 |
| 2010 | #6 | Russell Okung | OFF | -0.65 | -0.48 | -0.96 | -0.81 | -0.63 | -1.24 | -1.77 | -2.93 |
| 2012 | #15 | Bruce Irvin | DEF | -0.85 | -0.91 | -1.29 | -1.06 | +0.22 | -2.04 | -1.11 | -3.02 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.