Joe Douglas
NYJ · Composite skill θ = -0.09 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.52 to +1.34
Evidence: 40 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2020–2024 · 52% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.31
- maturity discount
- +0.08
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2020–2024NYJHired June 2019 — Maccagnan ran the 2019 draft
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #4 | Sauce Gardner | DEF | +4.14 |
| 2022 | #36 | Breece Hall | OFF | +0.86 |
| 2021 | #200 | Brandin Echols | DEF | +0.72 |
| 2021 | #146 | Jamien Sherwood | DEF | +0.71 |
| 2022 | #117 | Micheal Clemons | DEF | +0.66 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | #11 | Mekhi Becton | OFF | -2.63 |
| 2021 | #2 | Zach Wilson | OFF | -1.84 |
| 2020 | #129 | Cameron Clark | OFF | -1.41 |
| 2020 | #79 | Jabari Zuniga | DEF | -1.33 |
| 2024 | #11 | Olumuyiwa Fashanu | OFF | -1.18 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 40 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2022 | #4 | Sauce Gardner | DEF | +0.11 | +0.18 | +0.34 | +0.11 | +1.74 | +1.90 | +4.11 | +4.14 |
| 2022 | #36 | Breece Hall | OFF | +0.35 | +0.71 | +0.51 | +0.63 | +0.30 | -0.19 | -0.08 | +0.86 |
| 2021 | #200 | Brandin Echols | DEF | +0.71 | +0.22 | +0.47 | +0.22 | +0.34 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.72 |
| 2021 | #146 | Jamien Sherwood | DEF | +0.99 | +0.68 | +1.02 | +0.45 | -0.75 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.71 |
| 2022 | #117 | Micheal Clemons | DEF | +0.90 | +0.35 | +0.97 | +0.33 | -0.44 | -0.04 | -0.01 | +0.66 |
| 2020 | #158 | Bryce Hall | DEF | +0.23 | +0.37 | +0.48 | +0.19 | +0.41 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.63 |
| 2021 | #154 | Michael Carter II | DEF | +0.82 | +0.31 | +0.47 | +0.20 | -0.18 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.50 |
| 2022 | #26 | Jermaine Johnson II | DEF | +0.00 | -0.04 | -0.56 | -0.02 | +0.52 | +0.92 | -0.09 | +0.46 |
| 2020 | #191 | Braden Mann | ST | +0.18 | -0.14 | +0.41 | +0.22 | +0.37 | -0.06 | -0.05 | +0.39 |
| 2024 | #171 | Jordan Travis | OFF | +0.06 | +0.24 | +0.19 | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.32 |
| 2024 | #176 | Qwan'tez Stiggers | DEF | +0.44 | +0.19 | +0.35 | +0.20 | -0.21 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 2023 | #220 | Zack Kuntz | OFF | -0.14 | +0.11 | -0.07 | +0.32 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.27 |
| 2023 | #43 | Joe Tippmann | OFF | +0.40 | +0.60 | +0.51 | +0.15 | -0.56 | -0.08 | -0.03 | +0.24 |
| 2022 | #10 | Garrett Wilson | OFF | +0.24 | +0.35 | +0.57 | +0.15 | -0.06 | -0.28 | -0.12 | +0.23 |
| 2024 | #257 | Jaylen Key | ST | -0.12 | +0.17 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| 2024 | #173 | Isaiah Davis | OFF | +0.52 | +0.11 | +0.63 | +0.21 | -0.78 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 2023 | #120 | Carter Warren | OFF | -0.02 | -0.06 | +0.13 | -0.02 | +0.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2024 | #134 | Braelon Allen | OFF | +0.14 | +0.08 | +0.02 | +0.10 | -0.20 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2021 | #107 | Michael Carter | OFF | +0.05 | +0.14 | +0.04 | +0.03 | -0.04 | -0.12 | -0.05 | +0.00 |
| 2023 | #204 | Jarrick Bernard-Converse | DEF | +0.01 | -0.03 | -0.05 | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 2023 | #15 | Will McDonald | DEF | +0.16 | -0.06 | -0.17 | -0.16 | +0.30 | -0.10 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| 2022 | #101 | Jeremy Ruckert | OFF | +0.63 | +0.40 | -0.11 | +0.06 | -0.72 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| 2022 | #111 | Max Mitchell | OFF | +0.38 | -0.07 | -0.47 | -0.09 | -0.35 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.31 |
| 2023 | #184 | Zaire Barnes | DEF | -0.37 | -0.13 | -0.06 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2021 | #175 | Jason Pinnock | DEF | -0.42 | -0.29 | +0.05 | -0.21 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.46 |
| 2023 | #143 | Israel Abanikanda | OFF | -0.34 | -0.08 | -0.77 | -0.10 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2020 | #68 | Ashtyn Davis | DEF | +0.50 | -0.20 | -0.57 | -0.18 | -0.59 | -0.18 | -0.10 | -0.61 |
| 2024 | #65 | Malachi Corley | OFF | -0.33 | -0.24 | -0.47 | -0.27 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 2021 | #186 | Hamsah Nasirildeen | DEF | -0.23 | -0.27 | -1.10 | -0.15 | -0.23 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.75 |
| 2020 | #125 | James Morgan | OFF | -0.47 | -0.23 | -0.88 | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| 2021 | #14 | Alijah Vera-Tucker | OFF | -0.08 | -0.01 | -0.23 | -0.41 | -0.73 | -0.21 | -0.10 | -0.83 |
| 2021 | #207 | Jonathan Marshall | DEF | -0.54 | -0.27 | -1.21 | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.90 |
| 2020 | #120 | La'Mical Perine | OFF | -0.49 | -0.38 | -1.00 | -0.31 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -1.00 |
| 2020 | #59 | Denzel Mims | OFF | -0.27 | -0.25 | -1.10 | -0.38 | -0.55 | -0.14 | -0.06 | -1.10 |
| 2021 | #34 | Elijah Moore | OFF | -0.50 | -0.47 | -0.33 | -0.50 | -0.67 | -0.24 | -0.10 | -1.18 |
| 2024 | #11 | Olumuyiwa Fashanu | OFF | -0.11 | -0.37 | -0.19 | -0.55 | -1.21 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -1.18 |
| 2020 | #79 | Jabari Zuniga | DEF | -0.65 | -0.56 | -1.40 | -0.41 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -1.33 |
| 2020 | #129 | Cameron Clark | OFF | -0.79 | -0.60 | -1.33 | -0.45 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.41 |
| 2021 | #2 | Zach Wilson | OFF | -0.21 | -0.45 | -0.38 | -1.00 | -1.53 | -0.37 | -0.07 | -1.84 |
| 2020 | #11 | Mekhi Becton | OFF | -0.76 | -0.75 | -0.74 | -1.04 | -1.77 | -0.62 | -0.31 | -2.63 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.