Matt Millen
DET · Composite skill θ = -0.13 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.73 to +0.47
Evidence: 62 mapped picks across 8 draft classes, 2001–2008 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.31
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2001–2008DETFamously bad
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | #2 | Calvin Johnson | OFF | +6.14 |
| 2001 | #18 | Jeff Backus | OFF | +2.74 |
| 2004 | #30 | Kevin Jones | OFF | +1.20 |
| 2001 | #61 | Shaun Rogers | DEF | +1.14 |
| 2008 | #64 | Kevin Smith | OFF | +1.01 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | #43 | Drew Stanton | OFF | -3.02 |
| 2005 | #10 | Mike Williams | OFF | -2.35 |
| 2003 | #2 | Charles Rogers | OFF | -2.22 |
| 2005 | #145 | Dan Orlovsky | OFF | -1.68 |
| 2006 | #141 | Jonathan Scott | OFF | -1.63 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 62 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2007 | #2 | Calvin Johnson | OFF | +1.40 | +1.61 | -0.03 | +1.87 | +0.68 | +2.16 | +5.57 | +6.14 |
| 2001 | #18 | Jeff Backus | OFF | +2.20 | +3.00 | — | +1.34 | — | -1.40 | -1.00 | +2.74 |
| 2004 | #30 | Kevin Jones | OFF | +0.42 | +0.79 | — | +0.65 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +1.20 |
| 2001 | #61 | Shaun Rogers | DEF | -0.03 | +0.77 | — | +0.16 | — | +1.57 | -0.36 | +1.14 |
| 2008 | #64 | Kevin Smith | OFF | +0.56 | +0.50 | — | +0.52 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.01 |
| 2003 | #144 | James Davis | DEF | +0.45 | +0.67 | — | +0.44 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.99 |
| 2003 | #137 | Terrence Holt | DEF | +0.64 | +0.47 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.96 |
| 2002 | #175 | Chris Cash | DEF | +0.29 | +0.45 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.71 |
| 2001 | #149 | Mike McMahon | OFF | +0.40 | +0.32 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.69 |
| 2003 | #34 | Boss Bailey | DEF | +0.31 | +0.58 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.60 |
| 2001 | #148 | Scotty Anderson | OFF | +0.42 | +0.17 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.60 |
| 2004 | #140 | Alex Lewis | DEF | +0.73 | +0.07 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2001 | #50 | Dominic Raiola | OFF | +2.58 | +3.24 | -1.09 | +1.47 | -1.28 | -1.31 | -1.00 | +0.51 |
| 2006 | #247 | Anthony Cannon | DEF | +0.42 | -0.02 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.30 |
| 2004 | #172 | Kelly Butler | OFF | +0.00 | +0.22 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 2007 | #255 | Ramzee Robinson | DEF | +0.19 | +0.05 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 2002 | #35 | Kalimba Edwards | DEF | +0.92 | -0.29 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | +0.21 |
| 2003 | #99 | Artose Pinner | OFF | +0.11 | +0.01 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 2004 | #73 | Keith Smith | DEF | +0.88 | -0.36 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.12 |
| 2002 | #3 | Joey Harrington | OFF | +0.51 | +0.35 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.12 | -0.03 | +0.10 |
| 2003 | #260 | Travis Anglin | OFF | -0.21 | +0.11 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2003 | #175 | David Kircus | OFF | -0.06 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2005 | #72 | Stanley Wilson | DEF | +0.11 | -0.09 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| 2003 | #220 | Blue Adams | DEF | -0.29 | +0.04 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2003 | #236 | Brandon Drumm | OFF | -0.28 | +0.13 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2005 | #184 | Bill Swancutt | DEF | -0.16 | -0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 2005 | #206 | Jonathan Goddard | DEF | -0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 2002 | #214 | Luke Staley | OFF | -0.31 | +0.11 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 2004 | #7 | Roy Williams | OFF | -0.17 | -0.03 | — | -0.16 | — | +0.62 | -0.30 | -0.10 |
| 2008 | #218 | Caleb Campbell | DEF | -0.30 | -0.01 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2008 | #92 | Cliff Avril | DEF | +0.01 | +0.37 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.30 | -0.23 | -0.11 |
| 2002 | #252 | Matt Murphy | OFF | -0.40 | -0.12 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2007 | #61 | Gerald Alexander | DEF | -0.22 | +0.05 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| 2002 | #259 | Victor Rogers | OFF | -0.20 | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 2006 | #40 | Daniel Bullocks | DEF | -0.06 | +0.05 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.16 |
| 2006 | #179 | Dee McCann | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2004 | #37 | Teddy Lehman | DEF | +0.10 | -0.19 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.26 |
| 2003 | #216 | Ben Johnson | OFF | -0.30 | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 2006 | #217 | Fred Matua | OFF | -0.33 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2008 | #136 | Kenny Moore | OFF | -0.49 | -0.14 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 2008 | #216 | Landon Cohen | DEF | -0.25 | -0.23 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2007 | #158 | Johnny Baldwin | DEF | -0.53 | -0.17 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2002 | #134 | John Taylor | DEF | -0.53 | -0.18 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 2002 | #138 | John Owens | OFF | -0.01 | -0.23 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.54 |
| 2007 | #105 | A.J. Davis | DEF | -0.58 | -0.24 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2007 | #58 | Ikaika Alama-Francis | DEF | -0.27 | -0.36 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2006 | #74 | Brian Calhoun | OFF | -0.41 | -0.28 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.63 |
| 2008 | #87 | Andre Fluellen | DEF | +0.67 | -0.63 | -0.47 | -0.33 | -0.53 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.64 |
| 2008 | #17 | Gosder Cherilus | OFF | +0.00 | +0.20 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.66 | -0.41 | -0.66 |
| 2001 | #173 | Jason Glenn | DEF | -0.64 | -0.27 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 2007 | #117 | Manuel Ramirez | OFF | -0.55 | -0.50 | +0.03 | -0.54 | +0.02 | -0.14 | -0.10 | -0.72 |
| 2008 | #45 | Jordon Dizon | DEF | -0.21 | -0.61 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.89 |
| 2003 | #66 | Cory Redding | DEF | -0.32 | +0.26 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.61 | -0.36 | -1.04 |
| 2008 | #146 | Jerome Felton | OFF | -0.31 | -0.36 | — | -0.76 | — | -0.15 | -0.10 | -1.22 |
| 2005 | #37 | Shaun Cody | DEF | -0.13 | -0.78 | — | -0.67 | — | -0.16 | -0.08 | -1.25 |
| 2006 | #9 | Ernie Sims | DEF | -0.29 | -0.08 | — | -0.73 | — | -0.47 | -0.36 | -1.33 |
| 2002 | #68 | Andre' Goodman | DEF | -0.65 | -0.68 | — | -0.73 | — | -0.25 | -0.20 | -1.63 |
| 2006 | #141 | Jonathan Scott | OFF | -0.82 | -0.87 | — | -0.70 | — | -0.11 | -0.08 | -1.63 |
| 2005 | #145 | Dan Orlovsky | OFF | -1.05 | -0.84 | -0.22 | -0.89 | — | -0.13 | -0.03 | -1.68 |
| 2003 | #2 | Charles Rogers | OFF | -0.64 | -0.98 | — | -1.30 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | -2.22 |
| 2005 | #10 | Mike Williams | OFF | -0.87 | -1.15 | — | -1.12 | — | -0.28 | -0.16 | -2.35 |
| 2007 | #43 | Drew Stanton | OFF | -1.46 | -1.36 | — | -1.32 | — | -0.48 | -0.10 | -3.02 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.