John Butler
LAC · Composite skill θ = +0.04 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.75 to +0.84
Evidence: 16 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2001–2002 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.29
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2001–2002LACCame from BUF; died May 2003
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #5 | LaDainian Tomlinson | OFF | +9.59 |
| 2001 | #139 | Zeke Moreno | DEF | +0.86 |
| 2002 | #216 | Seth Burford | OFF | +0.34 |
| 2001 | #244 | Robert Carswell | DEF | +0.31 |
| 2002 | #5 | Quentin Jammer | DEF | +0.24 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #32 | Drew Brees | OFF | -5.49 |
| 2001 | #201 | Brandon Gorin | OFF | -1.85 |
| 2002 | #103 | Justin Peelle | OFF | -1.33 |
| 2002 | #71 | Ben Leber | DEF | -0.74 |
| 2001 | #112 | Carlos Polk | DEF | -0.60 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 16 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2001 | #5 | LaDainian Tomlinson | OFF | +1.10 | +1.74 | — | +3.97 | — | +3.48 | +4.92 | +9.59 |
| 2001 | #139 | Zeke Moreno | DEF | +0.87 | +0.25 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.86 |
| 2002 | #216 | Seth Burford | OFF | +0.04 | +0.24 | — | +0.20 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.34 |
| 2001 | #244 | Robert Carswell | DEF | +0.20 | +0.09 | — | +0.17 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.31 |
| 2002 | #5 | Quentin Jammer | DEF | +1.63 | +2.01 | — | +0.29 | — | -1.86 | -1.88 | +0.24 |
| 2002 | #39 | Toniu Fonoti | OFF | -0.04 | +0.12 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.16 |
| 2002 | #48 | Reche Caldwell | OFF | +0.22 | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.07 |
| 2001 | #67 | Tay Cody | DEF | -0.19 | -0.03 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.18 |
| 2002 | #142 | Terry Charles | OFF | -0.42 | -0.07 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2002 | #178 | Matt Anderle | OFF | -0.36 | -0.20 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2001 | #132 | Elliot Silvers | OFF | -0.46 | -0.29 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2001 | #112 | Carlos Polk | DEF | +0.36 | -0.61 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.60 |
| 2002 | #71 | Ben Leber | DEF | -0.38 | +0.12 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.29 | -0.22 | -0.74 |
| 2002 | #103 | Justin Peelle | OFF | -0.12 | -0.63 | — | -0.79 | — | -0.20 | -0.11 | -1.33 |
| 2001 | #201 | Brandon Gorin | OFF | -1.14 | -0.88 | — | -0.79 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.85 |
| 2001 | #32 | Drew Brees | OFF | -2.67 | -1.98 | — | -2.14 | — | -1.27 | -0.78 | -5.49 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.