Jon Robinson
TEN · Composite skill θ = -0.00 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.97 to +0.97
Evidence: 52 mapped picks across 7 draft classes, 2016–2022 · 81% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.02
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2016–2022TEN
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | #19 | Jeffery Simmons | DEF | +5.64 |
| 2016 | #64 | Kevin Byard | DEF | +5.11 |
| 2016 | #45 | Derrick Henry | OFF | +4.22 |
| 2022 | #143 | Chigoziem Okonkwo | OFF | +1.89 |
| 2017 | #155 | Jayon Brown | DEF | +1.23 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | #43 | Austin Johnson | DEF | -2.71 |
| 2017 | #18 | Adoree' Jackson | DEF | -2.59 |
| 2020 | #29 | Isaiah Wilson | OFF | -2.51 |
| 2016 | #8 | Jack Conklin | OFF | -2.27 |
| 2021 | #22 | Caleb Farley | DEF | -1.70 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 52 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2019 | #19 | Jeffery Simmons | DEF | +0.81 | +1.32 | +1.80 | +1.82 | +1.04 | +3.86 | +1.94 | +5.64 |
| 2016 | #64 | Kevin Byard | DEF | +0.98 | +1.59 | +1.47 | +1.21 | +1.08 | +1.46 | +3.79 | +5.11 |
| 2016 | #45 | Derrick Henry | OFF | +0.85 | +0.90 | +0.82 | +1.64 | +0.86 | +2.89 | +1.33 | +4.22 |
| 2022 | #143 | Chigoziem Okonkwo | OFF | +0.98 | +0.85 | +1.02 | +0.73 | +1.21 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.89 |
| 2017 | #155 | Jayon Brown | DEF | +0.68 | +0.55 | +1.37 | +0.62 | +0.20 | -0.06 | -0.04 | +1.23 |
| 2018 | #41 | Harold Landry | DEF | +0.65 | +0.82 | +1.13 | +0.66 | -0.04 | +0.44 | -0.40 | +1.19 |
| 2019 | #116 | Amani Hooker | DEF | +1.14 | +1.08 | +1.11 | +0.53 | -0.18 | -0.15 | -0.10 | +1.16 |
| 2019 | #51 | A.J. Brown | OFF | -0.36 | -0.05 | -0.01 | +0.40 | +2.69 | -0.40 | -0.18 | +1.11 |
| 2019 | #82 | Nate Davis | OFF | +0.24 | +0.60 | +0.65 | +0.33 | +0.15 | -0.16 | -0.08 | +0.61 |
| 2016 | #157 | LeShaun Sims | DEF | +0.74 | +0.05 | +0.84 | +0.19 | -0.16 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.53 |
| 2019 | #188 | David Long | DEF | +0.30 | +0.20 | +0.49 | +0.19 | +0.30 | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.53 |
| 2016 | #140 | Tajae Sharpe | OFF | +0.30 | +0.35 | +0.52 | +0.08 | +0.10 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.43 |
| 2021 | #135 | Rashad Weaver | DEF | +0.20 | -0.13 | +0.15 | +0.05 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| 2022 | #69 | Nicholas Petit-Frere | OFF | +0.16 | +0.24 | +0.16 | +0.07 | -0.26 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.06 |
| 2020 | #61 | Kristian Fulton | DEF | -0.18 | +0.18 | -0.26 | -0.08 | +0.57 | -0.20 | -0.11 | +0.00 |
| 2022 | #35 | Roger McCreary | DEF | +0.33 | +0.30 | +0.42 | -0.01 | -0.56 | -0.13 | -0.06 | -0.03 |
| 2021 | #100 | Elijah Molden | DEF | -0.10 | -0.09 | -0.13 | -0.10 | +0.17 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.12 |
| 2018 | #199 | Luke Falk | OFF | -0.25 | -0.03 | +0.02 | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 2017 | #72 | Taywan Taylor | OFF | -0.16 | -0.27 | -0.16 | -0.20 | +0.41 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.16 |
| 2020 | #174 | Larrell Murchison | DEF | -0.24 | -0.33 | -0.42 | -0.22 | +0.54 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.21 |
| 2016 | #253 | Kalan Reed | DEF | -0.27 | -0.11 | -0.15 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2022 | #204 | Theo Jackson | DEF | -0.50 | -0.16 | +0.06 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2020 | #224 | Cole McDonald | OFF | -0.27 | -0.05 | -0.40 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.32 |
| 2020 | #243 | Chris Jackson | DEF | +0.02 | -0.05 | -0.37 | -0.06 | -0.46 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 2022 | #86 | Malik Willis | OFF | -0.18 | -0.17 | -0.27 | -0.19 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 2022 | #131 | Hassan Haskins | OFF | -0.31 | -0.21 | +0.04 | -0.23 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.43 |
| 2018 | #22 | Rashaan Evans | DEF | -0.21 | -0.01 | -0.21 | -0.11 | +0.44 | -0.59 | -0.36 | -0.45 |
| 2016 | #222 | Aaron Wallace | DEF | -0.26 | -0.22 | -0.23 | -0.16 | -0.24 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2017 | #227 | Josh Carraway | DEF | -0.56 | -0.24 | +0.14 | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2017 | #100 | Jonnu Smith | OFF | -0.20 | +0.27 | +0.33 | -0.34 | -0.27 | -0.43 | -0.20 | -0.50 |
| 2022 | #163 | Kyle Philips | OFF | -0.25 | -0.21 | -0.90 | -0.07 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.56 |
| 2017 | #5 | Corey Davis | OFF | -0.09 | -0.16 | +0.34 | -0.41 | -0.03 | -0.54 | -0.30 | -0.61 |
| 2017 | #241 | Khalfani Muhammad | OFF | -0.50 | -0.08 | -0.74 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 2021 | #92 | Monty Rice | DEF | -0.15 | -0.36 | -0.61 | -0.29 | -0.22 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.70 |
| 2017 | #236 | Brad Seaton | OFF | -0.50 | -0.33 | -0.54 | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 2021 | #109 | Dez Fitzpatrick | OFF | -0.54 | -0.32 | -0.43 | -0.28 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.75 |
| 2021 | #215 | Brady Breeze | DEF | -0.52 | -0.28 | -0.77 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.75 |
| 2022 | #219 | Chance Campbell | DEF | -0.46 | -0.21 | -0.95 | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| 2021 | #53 | Dillon Radunz | OFF | +0.23 | -0.07 | -0.30 | -0.22 | -1.03 | -0.17 | -0.08 | -0.80 |
| 2021 | #205 | Racey McMath | OFF | -0.30 | -0.28 | -0.98 | -0.27 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.82 |
| 2016 | #193 | Sebastian Tretola | OFF | -0.53 | -0.37 | -0.75 | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.83 |
| 2018 | #152 | Dane Cruikshank | DEF | +0.04 | -0.55 | -0.73 | -0.38 | -0.68 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -1.02 |
| 2019 | #168 | D'Andre Walker | DEF | -0.75 | -0.38 | -1.02 | -0.33 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.08 |
| 2017 | #217 | Corey Levin | OFF | +0.78 | -0.89 | -1.64 | -0.63 | -0.20 | -0.16 | -0.11 | -1.13 |
| 2020 | #93 | Darrynton Evans | OFF | -0.76 | -0.46 | -0.78 | -0.42 | — | -0.12 | -0.05 | -1.18 |
| 2022 | #18 | Treylon Burks | OFF | -0.45 | -0.48 | -0.88 | -0.65 | -0.75 | -0.22 | -0.09 | -1.45 |
| 2016 | #33 | Kevin Dodd | DEF | -0.58 | -0.73 | -1.46 | -0.56 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -1.55 |
| 2021 | #22 | Caleb Farley | DEF | -0.76 | -0.82 | -1.04 | -0.71 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | -1.70 |
| 2016 | #8 | Jack Conklin | OFF | -0.89 | -0.74 | -0.45 | -0.76 | -0.21 | -2.63 | +0.43 | -2.27 |
| 2020 | #29 | Isaiah Wilson | OFF | -1.15 | -1.11 | -1.98 | -0.93 | — | -0.23 | -0.10 | -2.51 |
| 2017 | #18 | Adoree' Jackson | DEF | -0.87 | -0.60 | -0.44 | -0.91 | -0.90 | -1.24 | -0.84 | -2.59 |
| 2016 | #43 | Austin Johnson | DEF | -0.60 | -1.23 | -1.14 | -1.07 | -1.15 | -0.84 | -0.38 | -2.71 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.