Don Klosterman
LAR · Composite skill θ = +0.00 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.77 to +0.78
Evidence: 34 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 1980–1984 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.06
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1984LARGM 1972-1982 + Vice Chairman through 1984; pre-Shaw era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | #70 | LeRoy Irvin | DEF | +6.18 |
| 1983 | #111 | Doug Reed | DEF | +2.18 |
| 1983 | #32 | Henry Ellard | OFF | +1.99 |
| 1983 | #36 | Mike Wilcher | DEF | +1.47 |
| 1980 | #154 | Mike Guman | OFF | +0.93 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 | #14 | Barry Redden | OFF | -2.63 |
| 1981 | #104 | George Lilja | OFF | -1.61 |
| 1982 | #67 | Bill Bechtold | OFF | -1.24 |
| 1980 | #192 | Gerry Ellis | OFF | -1.22 |
| 1981 | #190 | Mike Clark | DEF | -1.08 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 34 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1980 | #70 | LeRoy Irvin | DEF | +1.38 | +1.29 | — | +2.16 | — | +1.48 | +3.87 | +6.18 |
| 1983 | #111 | Doug Reed | DEF | +1.11 | +1.48 | — | +0.95 | — | -0.09 | -0.03 | +2.18 |
| 1983 | #32 | Henry Ellard | OFF | +0.40 | +1.03 | — | +1.01 | — | -1.06 | +1.60 | +1.99 |
| 1983 | #36 | Mike Wilcher | DEF | +1.14 | +1.16 | — | +0.71 | — | -0.50 | -0.29 | +1.47 |
| 1980 | #154 | Mike Guman | OFF | +1.15 | +0.55 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.21 | -0.11 | +0.93 |
| 1981 | #43 | Jim Collins | DEF | +0.12 | +0.44 | — | +0.47 | — | +0.58 | -0.29 | +0.90 |
| 1983 | #97 | Vince Newsome | DEF | +0.96 | +0.69 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.27 | -0.18 | +0.86 |
| 1980 | #17 | Johnnie Johnson | DEF | +0.79 | +1.10 | — | +0.77 | — | -1.23 | -0.73 | +0.74 |
| 1983 | #2 | Eric Dickerson | OFF | -0.84 | -0.61 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.48 | +3.78 | +0.64 |
| 1980 | #176 | Kirk Collins | DEF | +0.17 | -0.05 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.16 |
| 1981 | #9 | Mel Owens | DEF | +0.90 | +0.62 | — | +0.18 | — | -1.12 | -0.69 | +0.04 |
| 1983 | #134 | Otis Grant | OFF | +0.18 | -0.09 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 1981 | #175 | Ron Battle | OFF | -0.24 | -0.18 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1983 | #171 | Jeff Simmons | OFF | -0.39 | -0.10 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1980 | #82 | Phil Murphy | DEF | +0.02 | -0.39 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1982 | #181 | Joe Shearin | OFF | +0.07 | -0.41 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1980 | #58 | Jewerl Thomas | OFF | +0.07 | -0.38 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.46 |
| 1981 | #158 | William Daniels | DEF | -0.53 | -0.15 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1980 | #50 | Irv Pankey | OFF | +0.83 | +0.94 | — | +0.22 | — | -2.07 | -1.12 | -0.48 |
| 1984 | #133 | Hal Stephens | DEF | -0.53 | -0.16 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1982 | #118 | Doug Barnett | DEF | -0.20 | -0.40 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1983 | #87 | Chuck Nelson | ST | -0.61 | -0.19 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.58 |
| 1984 | #188 | George Radachowsky | DEF | -0.63 | -0.24 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 1982 | #145 | Kerry Locklin | OFF | -0.65 | -0.40 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 1983 | #144 | Gary Kowalski | OFF | -0.38 | -0.52 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 1982 | #117 | Wally Kersten | OFF | -0.56 | -0.44 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.85 |
| 1981 | #63 | Greg Meisner | DEF | +0.42 | -0.42 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.60 | -0.24 | -0.94 |
| 1981 | #66 | Robert Cobb | DEF | -0.65 | -0.44 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.94 |
| 1982 | #88 | Jeff Gaylord | DEF | -0.79 | -0.43 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.03 |
| 1981 | #190 | Mike Clark | DEF | -0.87 | -0.44 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -1.08 |
| 1980 | #192 | Gerry Ellis | OFF | -0.92 | -0.42 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.22 |
| 1982 | #67 | Bill Bechtold | OFF | -0.79 | -0.63 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.24 |
| 1981 | #104 | George Lilja | OFF | -0.87 | -0.84 | — | -0.68 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -1.61 |
| 1982 | #14 | Barry Redden | OFF | -0.30 | -1.18 | — | -1.04 | — | -1.14 | -0.55 | -2.63 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.