Howie Roseman
PHI · Composite skill θ = +0.24 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.81 to +1.29
Composite θ
+0.24
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.81–+1.29
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
67%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 124 mapped picks across 15 draft classes, 2010–2025 · 77% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.03
- maturity discount
- -0.07
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2010–2014PHIFirst stint
- 2016–2025PHIReinstated
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | #191 | Jason Kelce | OFF | +15.09 |
| 2012 | #12 | Fletcher Cox | DEF | +6.30 |
| 2020 | #53 | Jalen Hurts | OFF | +5.73 |
| 2024 | #22 | Quinyon Mitchell | DEF | +3.25 |
| 2021 | #37 | Landon Dickerson | OFF | +3.07 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #13 | Brandon Graham | DEF | -3.67 |
| 2013 | #218 | Jordan Poyer | DEF | -3.66 |
| 2013 | #98 | Matt Barkley | OFF | -3.08 |
| 2012 | #153 | Dennis Kelly | OFF | -2.83 |
| 2014 | #42 | Jordan Matthews | OFF | -2.44 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 124 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2011 | #191 | Jason Kelce | OFF | +2.48 | +3.53 | +2.77 | +3.92 | +1.72 | +6.14 | +12.54 | +15.09 |
| 2012 | #12 | Fletcher Cox | DEF | +1.96 | +2.71 | +2.32 | +2.94 | +0.85 | +3.25 | +0.91 | +6.30 |
| 2020 | #53 | Jalen Hurts | OFF | +1.35 | +1.57 | +1.45 | +3.21 | +2.23 | +3.12 | -0.02 | +5.73 |
| 2024 | #22 | Quinyon Mitchell | DEF | -0.01 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.24 | +2.79 | +1.03 | +2.12 | +3.25 |
| 2021 | #37 | Landon Dickerson | OFF | +0.74 | +1.08 | +0.81 | +0.84 | +0.59 | +3.06 | -0.10 | +3.07 |
| 2024 | #40 | Cooper DeJean | DEF | +0.10 | +0.24 | +0.34 | +0.32 | +1.93 | +1.05 | +2.13 | +2.95 |
| 2018 | #130 | Josh Sweat | DEF | +1.20 | +0.90 | +0.59 | +0.79 | +0.90 | +0.93 | -0.07 | +2.17 |
| 2018 | #233 | Jordan Mailata | OFF | +1.04 | +1.46 | +1.67 | +1.23 | +0.34 | -0.10 | -0.07 | +2.08 |
| 2018 | #49 | Dallas Goedert | OFF | +0.97 | +1.25 | +1.37 | +1.01 | +1.19 | -0.59 | -0.25 | +1.87 |
| 2022 | #51 | Cam Jurgens | OFF | +0.48 | +0.33 | -0.09 | +0.28 | +0.90 | +2.07 | -0.05 | +1.84 |
| 2013 | #4 | Lane Johnson | OFF | +1.13 | +1.64 | +0.55 | +1.78 | -0.08 | +0.36 | -1.04 | +1.62 |
| 2021 | #10 | DeVonta Smith | OFF | +0.61 | +0.90 | +1.39 | +1.03 | +0.74 | -0.43 | -0.20 | +1.55 |
| 2010 | #159 | Riley Cooper | OFF | +1.46 | +1.20 | +1.95 | +0.52 | -0.51 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.53 |
| 2023 | #9 | Jalen Carter | DEF | +0.01 | -0.26 | +0.31 | +0.09 | +0.92 | +2.07 | -0.04 | +1.53 |
| 2013 | #67 | Bennie Logan | DEF | +0.44 | +0.78 | +1.30 | +0.54 | +0.56 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +1.34 |
| 2017 | #184 | Nathan Gerry | DEF | +0.33 | +0.21 | +0.35 | +0.53 | +1.00 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.03 |
| 2010 | #220 | Jamar Chaney | DEF | +0.61 | +0.53 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.99 |
| 2024 | #94 | Jalyx Hunt | DEF | +0.35 | +0.15 | +0.34 | +0.29 | +0.86 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.84 |
| 2011 | #120 | Alex Henery | ST | +0.56 | +0.08 | — | +0.53 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.83 |
| 2019 | #53 | Miles Sanders | OFF | -0.04 | +0.37 | +0.61 | +0.40 | +0.24 | +0.60 | -0.24 | +0.81 |
| 2020 | #200 | Quez Watkins | OFF | +0.56 | +0.43 | +0.40 | +0.32 | +0.35 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.77 |
| 2011 | #116 | Casey Matthews | DEF | +0.86 | +0.08 | +0.77 | +0.16 | +0.27 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.76 |
| 2012 | #229 | Bryce Brown | OFF | +0.36 | +0.15 | +1.18 | +0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.75 |
| 2023 | #249 | Moro Ojomo | DEF | +0.75 | +0.34 | +0.94 | +0.36 | -0.20 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.75 |
| 2014 | #224 | Beau Allen | DEF | +0.90 | -0.03 | +1.31 | +0.20 | -0.34 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.65 |
| 2025 | #181 | Kyle McCord | OFF | +0.22 | +0.38 | +0.58 | +0.24 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.63 |
| 2024 | #185 | Johnny Wilson | OFF | +0.33 | +0.35 | +0.78 | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.62 |
| 2022 | #198 | Grant Calcaterra | OFF | +0.94 | +0.40 | +0.48 | +0.29 | -0.31 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.58 |
| 2021 | #150 | Kenneth Gainwell | OFF | +0.82 | -0.22 | +0.49 | +0.39 | +0.13 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.56 |
| 2022 | #13 | Jordan Davis | DEF | +0.41 | +0.51 | +0.03 | +0.12 | +0.51 | -0.17 | -0.06 | +0.50 |
| 2020 | #145 | Jack Driscoll | OFF | +0.87 | -0.06 | -0.19 | +0.15 | +0.35 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.42 |
| 2010 | #37 | Nate Allen | DEF | +0.30 | +0.74 | +0.41 | +0.20 | +0.05 | -0.27 | -0.18 | +0.37 |
| 2013 | #35 | Zach Ertz | OFF | +0.23 | +0.06 | +1.16 | +0.14 | +0.62 | +0.52 | -1.54 | +0.36 |
| 2025 | #209 | Antwaun Powell-Ryland | DEF | -0.05 | +0.25 | +0.35 | +0.18 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.36 |
| 2022 | #83 | Nakobe Dean | DEF | +0.27 | +0.22 | -0.29 | +0.15 | +0.45 | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.31 |
| 2024 | #152 | Ainias Smith | OFF | +0.05 | +0.20 | +0.32 | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| 2023 | #188 | Tanner McKee | OFF | +0.10 | +0.20 | +0.05 | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.28 |
| 2012 | #46 | Mychal Kendricks | DEF | +0.28 | +0.66 | +0.16 | +0.26 | +0.34 | -0.50 | -0.34 | +0.25 |
| 2012 | #123 | Brandon Boykin | DEF | +0.56 | -0.09 | +1.15 | +0.15 | -0.73 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.23 |
| 2024 | #190 | Dylan McMahon | OFF | -0.07 | +0.05 | +0.55 | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| 2013 | #239 | David King | DEF | -0.38 | -0.04 | +1.08 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 |
| 2011 | #193 | Brian Rolle | DEF | -0.03 | +0.19 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 2025 | #161 | Smael Mondon | DEF | +0.18 | +0.07 | +0.17 | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| 2024 | #155 | Jeremiah Trotter Jr. | DEF | +0.44 | -0.01 | +0.14 | +0.08 | -0.11 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 2025 | #207 | Cameron Williams | OFF | -0.05 | +0.04 | +0.41 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| 2025 | #168 | Drew Kendall | OFF | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.27 | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| 2025 | #145 | Mac McWilliams | DEF | -0.07 | +0.11 | +0.02 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| 2023 | #105 | Kelee Ringo | DEF | +0.67 | -0.02 | +0.14 | +0.10 | -0.42 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.08 |
| 2025 | #191 | Myles Hinton | OFF | -0.10 | +0.02 | +0.31 | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 2016 | #233 | Jalen Mills | DEF | +0.01 | +0.30 | +0.82 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.16 | -0.15 | +0.08 |
| 2025 | #111 | Ty Robinson | DEF | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 2013 | #136 | Earl Wolff | DEF | -0.16 | -0.05 | -0.38 | +0.03 | +0.50 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.05 |
| 2021 | #234 | Patrick Johnson | DEF | +0.81 | -0.18 | +0.02 | +0.03 | -0.38 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 2023 | #30 | Nolan Smith | DEF | +0.13 | -0.14 | -0.56 | -0.13 | +0.70 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.03 |
| 2021 | #191 | Tarron Jackson | DEF | +0.03 | -0.13 | +0.23 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 2018 | #125 | Avonte Maddox | DEF | +0.61 | +0.22 | +0.06 | -0.01 | -0.25 | -0.20 | -0.14 | -0.00 |
| 2011 | #240 | Stanley Havili | OFF | -0.01 | +0.09 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 2016 | #153 | Wendell Smallwood | OFF | +0.06 | -0.04 | +0.60 | +0.00 | -0.38 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.03 |
| 2021 | #73 | Milton Williams | DEF | +0.65 | -0.09 | +0.22 | +0.02 | -0.52 | -0.09 | -0.03 | -0.05 |
| 2010 | #243 | Jeff Owens | DEF | -0.30 | +0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 2023 | #65 | Tyler Steen | OFF | +0.38 | -0.03 | -0.19 | -0.02 | -0.20 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.10 |
| 2010 | #122 | Mike Kafka | OFF | -0.15 | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 2024 | #172 | Trevor Keegan | OFF | -0.25 | -0.14 | +0.22 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2025 | #31 | Jihaad Campbell | DEF | -0.26 | -0.21 | -0.31 | -0.26 | +0.49 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.17 |
| 2011 | #90 | Curtis Marsh | DEF | -0.10 | -0.35 | +0.30 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.25 |
| 2011 | #161 | Julian Vandervelde | OFF | -0.07 | -0.33 | +0.19 | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2025 | #64 | Andrew Mukuba | ST | -0.16 | +0.11 | -0.09 | -0.02 | -0.39 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2010 | #200 | Charles Scott | OFF | -0.42 | +0.00 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 2014 | #162 | Ed Reynolds | DEF | -0.41 | -0.12 | -0.03 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 2010 | #125 | Clay Harbor | OFF | -0.07 | -0.11 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.29 |
| 2012 | #194 | Marvin McNutt | OFF | -0.34 | -0.09 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2020 | #233 | Casey Toohill | DEF | -0.54 | -0.20 | +0.34 | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2021 | #189 | Marlon Tuipulotu | DEF | +0.00 | -0.27 | -0.16 | -0.15 | -0.19 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2014 | #141 | Taylor Hart | DEF | -0.25 | -0.20 | -0.21 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2010 | #244 | Kurt Coleman | DEF | +0.05 | -0.12 | +0.16 | -0.29 | — | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.35 |
| 2022 | #181 | Kyron Johnson | DEF | -0.14 | -0.17 | -0.44 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2011 | #237 | Greg Lloyd | DEF | -0.44 | -0.10 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2013 | #212 | Joe Kruger | DEF | -0.43 | -0.07 | -0.51 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2014 | #86 | Josh Huff | OFF | +0.08 | -0.23 | -0.26 | -0.08 | -0.33 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.39 |
| 2010 | #121 | Keenan Clayton | DEF | -0.15 | -0.28 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.39 |
| 2016 | #251 | Joe Walker | DEF | -0.43 | -0.27 | +0.27 | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.42 |
| 2024 | #127 | Will Shipley | OFF | +0.37 | +0.04 | +0.14 | +0.00 | -1.17 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2010 | #105 | Trevard Lindley | DEF | -0.35 | -0.25 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.44 |
| 2016 | #240 | Alex McCalister | DEF | -0.45 | -0.10 | -0.57 | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 2017 | #214 | Elijah Qualls | DEF | -0.37 | -0.16 | -0.62 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 2019 | #167 | Clayton Thorson | OFF | -0.34 | -0.11 | -0.53 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.45 |
| 2010 | #134 | Ricky Sapp | DEF | -0.53 | -0.17 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2016 | #164 | Halapoulivaati Vaitai | OFF | +0.12 | -0.40 | -0.10 | -0.21 | -0.34 | -0.13 | -0.08 | -0.52 |
| 2012 | #200 | Brandon Washington | OFF | -0.45 | -0.28 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2023 | #66 | Sydney Brown | DEF | +0.32 | -0.15 | -0.40 | -0.09 | -0.77 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.55 |
| 2017 | #166 | Shelton Gibson | OFF | -0.12 | -0.24 | -0.71 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| 2010 | #86 | Daniel Te'o-Nesheim | DEF | -0.52 | -0.29 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 2012 | #88 | Nick Foles | OFF | -0.68 | -0.41 | -0.42 | -0.20 | +0.42 | -0.37 | -0.08 | -0.63 |
| 2020 | #196 | Shaun Bradley | DEF | +0.37 | -0.33 | -0.58 | -0.19 | -0.71 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.66 |
| 2020 | #210 | Prince Tega Wanogho | OFF | -0.60 | -0.44 | -0.02 | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.72 |
| 2016 | #196 | Blake Countess | DEF | -0.69 | -0.36 | -0.28 | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.74 |
| 2020 | #168 | John Hightower | OFF | -0.34 | -0.20 | -0.97 | -0.25 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.79 |
| 2020 | #127 | K'Von Wallace | DEF | +0.10 | -0.40 | -0.46 | -0.30 | -0.79 | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.87 |
| 2011 | #54 | Jaiquawn Jarrett | DEF | -0.50 | -0.47 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.87 |
| 2021 | #224 | JaCoby Stevens | DEF | -0.58 | -0.24 | -1.29 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.92 |
| 2011 | #23 | Danny Watkins | OFF | -0.44 | -0.49 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.97 |
| 2020 | #103 | Davion Taylor | DEF | -0.43 | -0.37 | -1.45 | -0.36 | -0.04 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -1.01 |
| 2017 | #132 | Donnel Pumphrey | OFF | -0.71 | -0.27 | -1.25 | -0.30 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.09 |
| 2019 | #138 | Shareef Miller | DEF | -0.70 | -0.35 | -1.37 | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.09 |
| 2021 | #123 | Zech McPhearson | DEF | -0.03 | -0.43 | -1.02 | -0.26 | -1.00 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.17 |
| 2016 | #79 | Isaac Seumalo | OFF | +0.08 | +0.07 | -0.46 | -0.27 | -0.74 | -0.71 | -0.42 | -1.18 |
| 2018 | #206 | Matt Pryor | OFF | -0.12 | -0.63 | -0.60 | -0.55 | -0.80 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -1.22 |
| 2014 | #101 | Jaylen Watkins | DEF | -0.24 | -0.57 | -0.87 | -0.45 | -0.88 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -1.31 |
| 2017 | #99 | Rasul Douglas | DEF | -0.49 | -0.66 | -0.24 | -0.65 | -0.60 | -0.36 | -0.25 | -1.39 |
| 2020 | #21 | Jalen Reagor | OFF | -0.53 | -0.35 | -0.17 | -0.64 | -1.04 | -0.28 | -0.12 | -1.39 |
| 2017 | #43 | Sidney Jones | DEF | -0.87 | -0.85 | -1.09 | -0.69 | +0.18 | -0.30 | -0.18 | -1.43 |
| 2019 | #57 | JJ Arcega-Whiteside | OFF | -0.01 | -0.46 | -0.94 | -0.49 | -1.40 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -1.50 |
| 2012 | #59 | Vinny Curry | DEF | +0.61 | -1.03 | -0.67 | -0.60 | -0.80 | -0.64 | -0.32 | -1.54 |
| 2014 | #26 | Marcus Smith | DEF | -0.21 | -0.90 | -0.46 | -0.68 | -1.23 | -0.12 | -0.07 | -1.57 |
| 2016 | #2 | Carson Wentz | OFF | -0.30 | -0.28 | +0.10 | -0.30 | -1.16 | -1.06 | -0.53 | -1.69 |
| 2019 | #22 | Andre Dillard | OFF | -0.35 | -1.10 | -1.05 | -0.86 | -0.38 | -0.40 | -0.20 | -1.75 |
| 2017 | #14 | Derek Barnett | DEF | -0.24 | -0.54 | -0.93 | -0.65 | -0.79 | -1.16 | -0.53 | -2.13 |
| 2017 | #118 | Mack Hollins | OFF | -0.86 | -1.00 | -0.41 | -0.91 | -1.31 | -0.36 | -0.20 | -2.15 |
| 2011 | #149 | Dion Lewis | OFF | -1.01 | -1.03 | — | -1.01 | — | -0.28 | -0.19 | -2.27 |
| 2014 | #42 | Jordan Matthews | OFF | -0.69 | -0.69 | -0.50 | -0.80 | -0.56 | -1.44 | -0.81 | -2.44 |
| 2012 | #153 | Dennis Kelly | OFF | -1.32 | -1.28 | -0.80 | -1.36 | -1.19 | -0.46 | -0.35 | -2.83 |
| 2013 | #98 | Matt Barkley | OFF | -1.54 | -1.28 | -1.95 | -1.27 | — | -0.37 | -0.07 | -3.08 |
| 2013 | #218 | Jordan Poyer | DEF | -2.11 | -1.63 | -0.95 | -1.72 | — | -0.36 | -0.38 | -3.66 |
| 2010 | #13 | Brandon Graham | DEF | +1.66 | -0.22 | -0.04 | -0.28 | -1.04 | -3.67 | -3.29 | -3.67 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.