Brandon Beane
BUF · Composite skill θ = +0.53 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.14 to +2.20
Evidence: 64 mapped picks across 8 draft classes, 2018–2025 · 55% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.48
- maturity discount
- -0.44
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2018–2025BUFHired May 2017; first draft is 2018
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | #7 | Josh Allen | OFF | +6.06 |
| 2022 | #63 | James Cook | OFF | +4.28 |
| 2019 | #96 | Dawson Knox | OFF | +2.31 |
| 2018 | #121 | Taron Johnson | DEF | +2.17 |
| 2021 | #30 | Gregory Rousseau | DEF | +2.11 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | #187 | Ray-Ray McCloud | OFF | -1.52 |
| 2019 | #147 | Vosean Joseph | DEF | -1.30 |
| 2019 | #38 | Cody Ford | OFF | -1.18 |
| 2021 | #161 | Tommy Doyle | OFF | -1.17 |
| 2021 | #61 | Boogie Basham | DEF | -1.11 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 64 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2018 | #7 | Josh Allen | OFF | +1.54 | +1.89 | +1.93 | +4.02 | +1.21 | +3.48 | -0.16 | +6.06 |
| 2022 | #63 | James Cook | OFF | +0.72 | +0.79 | +0.46 | +1.48 | +2.67 | +3.16 | -0.05 | +4.28 |
| 2019 | #96 | Dawson Knox | OFF | +1.18 | +1.42 | +1.15 | +0.69 | +0.67 | +0.87 | -0.10 | +2.31 |
| 2018 | #121 | Taron Johnson | DEF | +1.38 | +1.49 | +1.45 | +0.99 | +0.82 | -0.21 | -0.14 | +2.17 |
| 2021 | #30 | Gregory Rousseau | DEF | +0.71 | +1.24 | +0.50 | +1.04 | +1.77 | -0.18 | -0.06 | +2.11 |
| 2021 | #93 | Spencer Brown | OFF | +0.85 | +1.18 | +1.16 | +1.27 | +0.99 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +2.11 |
| 2024 | #128 | Ray Davis | OFF | +0.44 | +0.01 | +0.09 | +0.35 | +1.32 | -0.02 | +2.14 | +2.08 |
| 2022 | #148 | Khalil Shakir | OFF | +0.90 | +0.62 | +0.72 | +0.91 | +1.78 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +2.07 |
| 2022 | #185 | Christian Benford | DEF | +0.75 | +1.14 | +1.25 | +0.76 | +1.24 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +2.03 |
| 2025 | #109 | Deone Walker | DEF | +0.15 | +0.48 | +0.41 | +0.36 | +2.86 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.95 |
| 2023 | #25 | Dalton Kincaid | OFF | +0.04 | -0.11 | -0.56 | +0.32 | +3.04 | +0.98 | -0.04 | +1.94 |
| 2020 | #188 | Tyler Bass | ST | +1.34 | +0.03 | +2.24 | +0.68 | +0.19 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.61 |
| 2022 | #89 | Terrel Bernard | DEF | +0.56 | +0.66 | +0.51 | +0.70 | +1.15 | -0.07 | -0.04 | +1.45 |
| 2020 | #128 | Gabriel Davis | OFF | +0.73 | +0.87 | +1.16 | +0.70 | +0.36 | -0.11 | -0.05 | +1.37 |
| 2023 | #59 | O'Cyrus Torrence | OFF | +0.50 | +0.76 | +0.85 | +0.56 | +0.48 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +1.19 |
| 2024 | #141 | Sedrick Van Pran-Granger | OFF | +0.41 | -0.14 | -0.10 | +0.04 | +1.81 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.96 |
| 2018 | #166 | Wyatt Teller | OFF | -1.07 | -0.81 | -0.09 | +1.06 | -0.84 | +3.12 | -0.10 | +0.96 |
| 2020 | #239 | Dane Jackson | DEF | +0.56 | +0.38 | +0.37 | +0.21 | +0.61 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.81 |
| 2021 | #212 | Damar Hamlin | DEF | +0.64 | +0.46 | +0.01 | +0.28 | +0.51 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.73 |
| 2025 | #173 | Jackson Hawes | OFF | +0.24 | +0.35 | +0.45 | +0.39 | +0.35 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.71 |
| 2019 | #9 | Ed Oliver | DEF | +0.62 | +0.80 | +0.03 | +0.63 | +0.67 | -0.69 | -0.30 | +0.65 |
| 2024 | #60 | Cole Bishop | ST | +0.22 | +0.27 | +0.10 | +0.15 | +0.72 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.61 |
| 2019 | #74 | Devin Singletary | OFF | +0.14 | +0.68 | +1.03 | +0.46 | +0.02 | -0.37 | -0.18 | +0.58 |
| 2023 | #91 | Dorian Williams | DEF | +0.52 | +0.24 | +0.26 | +0.24 | +0.22 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.54 |
| 2018 | #16 | Tremaine Edmunds | DEF | -0.10 | +0.37 | +0.66 | +0.55 | +0.61 | -0.02 | -0.71 | +0.53 |
| 2024 | #168 | Javon Solomon | DEF | +0.49 | +0.09 | +0.52 | +0.23 | +0.02 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.49 |
| 2025 | #170 | Jordan Hancock | ST | +0.18 | +0.16 | +0.37 | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.41 |
| 2025 | #240 | Kaden Prather | OFF | +0.00 | +0.29 | +0.42 | +0.16 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.40 |
| 2025 | #177 | Dorian Strong | DEF | -0.02 | +0.20 | +0.24 | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.32 |
| 2024 | #33 | Keon Coleman | OFF | -0.07 | +0.00 | -0.11 | -0.02 | +0.66 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.22 |
| 2024 | #95 | DeWayne Carter | DEF | -0.01 | +0.11 | +0.28 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 |
| 2023 | #230 | Nick Broeker | OFF | -0.14 | -0.01 | +0.62 | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| 2025 | #206 | Chase Lundt | OFF | -0.03 | +0.04 | +0.38 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| 2022 | #231 | Baylon Spector | DEF | +0.17 | -0.08 | -0.37 | +0.03 | +0.47 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 2023 | #252 | Alex Austin | DEF | -0.27 | +0.04 | +0.31 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 2024 | #219 | Daequan Hardy | DEF | -0.18 | +0.12 | -0.05 | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 2024 | #204 | Tylan Grable | OFF | -0.09 | -0.03 | +0.09 | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 2020 | #54 | A.J. Epenesa | DEF | +0.99 | -0.34 | -0.05 | +0.14 | -0.29 | -0.18 | -0.07 | +0.00 |
| 2019 | #181 | Jaquan Johnson | DEF | +0.81 | -0.17 | -0.41 | +0.03 | -0.14 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| 2024 | #221 | Travis Clayton | OFF | -0.19 | -0.06 | +0.06 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 2022 | #180 | Matt Araiza | ST | -0.55 | +0.13 | -0.29 | +0.15 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.11 |
| 2024 | #160 | Edefuan Ulofoshio | DEF | -0.28 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2019 | #225 | Darryl Johnson | DEF | +0.20 | -0.19 | +0.59 | -0.01 | -0.85 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2023 | #150 | Justin Shorter | OFF | -0.44 | -0.11 | -0.14 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2025 | #72 | Landon Jackson | DEF | -0.31 | -0.10 | -0.35 | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.39 |
| 2019 | #228 | Tommy Sweeney | OFF | -0.02 | -0.14 | -0.76 | +0.07 | -0.29 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 2020 | #86 | Zack Moss | OFF | -0.17 | -0.49 | -0.19 | -0.10 | -0.09 | -0.13 | -0.06 | -0.47 |
| 2022 | #209 | Luke Tenuta | OFF | -0.50 | -0.33 | +0.19 | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2020 | #167 | Jake Fromm | OFF | -0.37 | -0.14 | -0.42 | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | +0.00 | -0.47 |
| 2025 | #41 | T.J. Sanders | DEF | -0.23 | -0.24 | -0.31 | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2018 | #255 | Austin Proehl | OFF | -0.48 | -0.13 | -0.61 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 2025 | #30 | Maxwell Hairston | DEF | -0.33 | -0.35 | -0.49 | -0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.73 |
| 2021 | #236 | Jack Anderson | OFF | -0.61 | -0.43 | -0.37 | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.83 |
| 2021 | #213 | Rachad Wildgoose | DEF | -0.64 | -0.28 | -0.92 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.85 |
| 2021 | #203 | Marquez Stevenson | OFF | -0.53 | -0.28 | -1.22 | -0.27 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.98 |
| 2018 | #96 | Harrison Phillips | DEF | -0.33 | -0.67 | -0.46 | -0.43 | -0.27 | -0.23 | -0.10 | -1.00 |
| 2022 | #23 | Kaiir Elam | DEF | -0.37 | -0.56 | -0.97 | -0.51 | -0.06 | -0.16 | -0.08 | -1.03 |
| 2018 | #154 | Siran Neal | DEF | +1.07 | -0.82 | -0.75 | -0.47 | -1.00 | -0.16 | -0.11 | -1.04 |
| 2020 | #207 | Isaiah Hodgins | OFF | -0.73 | -0.42 | -0.67 | -0.40 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.06 |
| 2021 | #61 | Boogie Basham | DEF | -0.46 | -0.68 | -0.51 | -0.43 | -0.55 | -0.11 | -0.04 | -1.11 |
| 2021 | #161 | Tommy Doyle | OFF | -0.46 | -0.55 | -1.23 | -0.38 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.17 |
| 2019 | #38 | Cody Ford | OFF | -0.57 | -0.54 | -0.64 | -0.54 | +0.05 | -0.49 | -0.24 | -1.18 |
| 2019 | #147 | Vosean Joseph | DEF | -0.79 | -0.42 | -1.46 | -0.37 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.30 |
| 2018 | #187 | Ray-Ray McCloud | OFF | -0.96 | -0.74 | -0.29 | -0.74 | — | -0.15 | -0.09 | -1.52 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.