Jerry Angelo
CHI · Composite skill θ = +0.38 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.15 to +0.91
Composite θ
+0.38
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.15–+0.91
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
92%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
maturity-adjusted direction probability > 80%
Evidence: 88 mapped picks across 11 draft classes, 2001–2011 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.25
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2001–2011CHI
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | #68 | Lance Briggs | DEF | +6.84 |
| 2006 | #57 | Devin Hester | DEF | +4.95 |
| 2004 | #14 | Tommie Harris | DEF | +3.88 |
| 2002 | #104 | Alex Brown | DEF | +3.81 |
| 2008 | #44 | Matt Forte | OFF | +2.77 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | #31 | Greg Olsen | OFF | -4.94 |
| 2002 | #29 | Marc Colombo | OFF | -3.42 |
| 2005 | #4 | Cedric Benson | OFF | -2.98 |
| 2001 | #68 | Mike Gandy | OFF | -1.33 |
| 2007 | #168 | Corey Graham | DEF | -1.20 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 88 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2003 | #68 | Lance Briggs | DEF | +1.95 | +2.96 | -1.12 | +3.60 | -1.13 | +7.04 | +1.63 | +6.84 |
| 2006 | #57 | Devin Hester | DEF | +0.97 | -0.28 | -1.02 | +0.65 | — | +2.78 | +6.05 | +4.95 |
| 2004 | #14 | Tommie Harris | DEF | +0.96 | +1.11 | — | +1.40 | — | +3.02 | -0.13 | +3.88 |
| 2002 | #104 | Alex Brown | DEF | +1.74 | +2.07 | — | +1.98 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +3.81 |
| 2008 | #44 | Matt Forte | OFF | +1.03 | +1.92 | +1.07 | +2.59 | +0.34 | +0.35 | -0.44 | +2.77 |
| 2004 | #110 | Nathan Vasher | DEF | +0.84 | +0.73 | — | +0.89 | — | +1.05 | -0.03 | +2.19 |
| 2009 | #140 | Johnny Knox | OFF | +0.59 | +0.60 | — | +0.79 | — | +1.08 | -0.01 | +1.92 |
| 2003 | #35 | Charles Tillman | DEF | +1.22 | +2.09 | -1.93 | +1.32 | -0.62 | +1.01 | +1.12 | +1.88 |
| 2009 | #105 | Henry Melton | DEF | +0.17 | +0.30 | +0.25 | +0.47 | — | +1.04 | -0.03 | +1.22 |
| 2010 | #109 | Corey Wootton | DEF | +0.50 | +0.37 | +1.34 | +0.41 | +0.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.95 |
| 2007 | #167 | Kevin Payne | DEF | +0.35 | +0.53 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.86 |
| 2003 | #116 | Ian Scott | DEF | +0.30 | +0.42 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.80 |
| 2006 | #159 | Mark Anderson | DEF | +0.78 | +0.08 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.77 |
| 2005 | #181 | Chris Harris | DEF | +0.08 | +0.51 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.04 | -0.04 | +0.69 |
| 2002 | #199 | Adrian Peterson | OFF | +1.63 | -0.29 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.64 |
| 2008 | #120 | Craig Steltz | DEF | +1.12 | -0.16 | +0.58 | +0.04 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.52 |
| 2002 | #140 | Bobby Gray | DEF | +0.27 | +0.27 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.51 |
| 2011 | #93 | Chris Conte | DEF | +0.10 | +0.57 | +0.29 | +0.09 | +0.44 | -0.13 | -0.10 | +0.46 |
| 2010 | #75 | Major Wright | DEF | +0.19 | +0.42 | +0.39 | +0.18 | +0.18 | -0.09 | -0.07 | +0.43 |
| 2003 | #191 | Joe Odom | DEF | +0.26 | +0.15 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 2007 | #130 | Josh Beekman | OFF | +0.16 | +0.21 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 2009 | #246 | Lance Louis | OFF | +0.27 | +0.25 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.39 |
| 2002 | #93 | Terrence Metcalf | OFF | +1.06 | -0.07 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.37 |
| 2005 | #220 | Rod Wilson | DEF | +0.54 | -0.15 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.37 |
| 2009 | #119 | D.J. Moore | DEF | +0.52 | -0.14 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.32 |
| 2004 | #148 | Craig Krenzel | OFF | +0.04 | +0.24 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.28 |
| 2009 | #190 | Al Afalava | DEF | -0.09 | +0.29 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.27 |
| 2006 | #120 | Jamar Williams | DEF | +0.63 | -0.17 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| 2001 | #38 | Anthony Thomas | OFF | +0.04 | +0.20 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.16 | -0.09 | +0.19 |
| 2002 | #165 | Bryan Knight | DEF | +0.29 | -0.06 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 2008 | #90 | Marcus Harrison | DEF | +0.28 | -0.03 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 2008 | #70 | Earl Bennett | OFF | +1.00 | +0.26 | +0.48 | +0.40 | -1.16 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.15 |
| 2003 | #206 | Brock Forsey | OFF | -0.11 | +0.14 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2010 | #181 | Dan LeFevour | OFF | -0.11 | +0.10 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2004 | #215 | Alfonso Marshall | DEF | -0.13 | +0.03 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2007 | #93 | Garrett Wolfe | OFF | +0.58 | -0.21 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.01 |
| 2006 | #42 | Danieal Manning | DEF | +0.24 | +0.29 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.29 | -0.22 | -0.04 |
| 2011 | #160 | Nathan Enderle | OFF | -0.17 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 2004 | #78 | Bernard Berrian | OFF | +0.18 | +0.06 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | -0.05 |
| 2008 | #243 | Joey LaRocque | DEF | -0.05 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2001 | #208 | John Capel | OFF | -0.28 | +0.06 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 2002 | #203 | Jamin Elliott | OFF | -0.25 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 2003 | #100 | Todd Johnson | DEF | +0.07 | -0.07 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| 2008 | #142 | Zackary Bowman | DEF | +0.67 | -0.05 | +0.46 | -0.01 | -0.78 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.10 |
| 2008 | #248 | Marcus Monk | OFF | -0.28 | +0.05 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2003 | #171 | Tron LaFavor | DEF | -0.27 | -0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 2008 | #158 | Kellen Davis | OFF | +0.61 | +0.09 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.11 |
| 2003 | #139 | Bobby Wade | OFF | +0.14 | -0.02 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.12 |
| 2003 | #261 | Bryan Anderson | OFF | -0.13 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 2001 | #138 | Bernard Robertson | OFF | -0.06 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2009 | #251 | Derek Kinder | OFF | -0.29 | +0.04 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2006 | #73 | Dusty Dvoracek | DEF | -0.34 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 2008 | #208 | Ervin Baldwin | DEF | -0.35 | +0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 2006 | #195 | J.D. Runnels | OFF | -0.33 | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2011 | #53 | Stephen Paea | DEF | +0.12 | +0.25 | +0.57 | -0.03 | -0.83 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.19 |
| 2004 | #112 | Leon Joe | DEF | -0.02 | -0.23 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2002 | #210 | Bryan Fletcher | OFF | -0.54 | -0.18 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2004 | #147 | Claude Harriott | DEF | -0.42 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.27 |
| 2003 | #143 | Justin Gage | OFF | +0.16 | -0.17 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.30 |
| 2007 | #241 | Aaron Brant | OFF | -0.30 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2008 | #247 | Kirk Barton | OFF | -0.28 | -0.15 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2005 | #140 | Airese Currie | OFF | -0.42 | -0.10 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2008 | #222 | Chester Adams | OFF | -0.35 | -0.19 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2006 | #200 | Tyler Reed | OFF | -0.36 | -0.20 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2010 | #141 | Joshua Moore | DEF | -0.45 | -0.18 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 2002 | #72 | Roosevelt Williams | DEF | -0.32 | -0.26 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2004 | #47 | Tank Johnson | DEF | -0.03 | -0.39 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.44 |
| 2001 | #8 | David Terrell | OFF | +0.30 | -0.19 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.50 |
| 2005 | #39 | Mark Bradley | OFF | +0.03 | -0.43 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.50 |
| 2009 | #154 | Marcus Freeman | DEF | -0.56 | -0.21 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 2001 | #103 | Karon Riley | DEF | -0.49 | -0.27 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2009 | #99 | Juaquin Iglesias | OFF | -0.58 | -0.26 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 2005 | #106 | Kyle Orton | OFF | -0.47 | -0.02 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.13 | -0.03 | -0.75 |
| 2003 | #14 | Michael Haynes | DEF | +0.09 | -0.73 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.78 |
| 2009 | #68 | Jarron Gilbert | DEF | -0.62 | -0.39 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.81 |
| 2007 | #94 | Michael Okwo | DEF | -0.69 | -0.35 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.82 |
| 2007 | #62 | Dan Bazuin | DEF | -0.71 | -0.39 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.86 |
| 2007 | #221 | Trumaine McBride | DEF | -0.35 | -0.44 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.86 |
| 2011 | #195 | J.T. Thomas | DEF | -0.52 | -0.52 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.99 |
| 2011 | #29 | Gabe Carimi | OFF | -0.52 | -0.47 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -1.00 |
| 2010 | #218 | J'Marcus Webb | OFF | -0.54 | -0.13 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.17 | -0.14 | -1.01 |
| 2008 | #14 | Chris Williams | OFF | -0.21 | -0.40 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.28 | -0.17 | -1.06 |
| 2003 | #22 | Rex Grossman | OFF | -0.52 | -0.40 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.27 | -0.05 | -1.12 |
| 2007 | #168 | Corey Graham | DEF | -0.07 | -1.13 | — | -0.91 | — | +0.86 | -0.23 | -1.20 |
| 2001 | #68 | Mike Gandy | OFF | -0.70 | -0.41 | — | -0.61 | — | -0.19 | -0.12 | -1.33 |
| 2005 | #4 | Cedric Benson | OFF | -0.84 | -1.32 | — | -1.29 | — | -0.72 | -0.51 | -2.98 |
| 2002 | #29 | Marc Colombo | OFF | -1.44 | -1.54 | — | -1.47 | — | -0.56 | -0.36 | -3.42 |
| 2007 | #31 | Greg Olsen | OFF | -1.42 | -1.38 | — | -1.58 | — | -2.42 | -1.50 | -4.94 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.