Forrest Gregg
GB · Composite skill θ = +0.11 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.72 to +0.93
Evidence: 20 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 1984–1986 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.13
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1984–1986GBHC era; pre-Braatz GM hire 1987
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | #125 | Brian Noble | DEF | +3.04 |
| 1986 | #84 | Tim Harris | DEF | +2.62 |
| 1984 | #153 | Randy Wright | OFF | +1.61 |
| 1985 | #71 | Rich Moran | OFF | +1.38 |
| 1984 | #126 | Tom Flynn | DEF | +1.27 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | #41 | Kenneth Davis | OFF | -1.99 |
| 1986 | #98 | Dan Knight | OFF | -0.87 |
| 1985 | #7 | Ken Ruettgers | OFF | -0.71 |
| 1985 | #171 | Eric Wilson | DEF | -0.51 |
| 1986 | #72 | Robbie Bosco | OFF | -0.45 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 20 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1985 | #125 | Brian Noble | DEF | +1.38 | +2.06 | — | +1.44 | — | -0.14 | -0.09 | +3.04 |
| 1986 | #84 | Tim Harris | DEF | +0.06 | +0.63 | — | +0.90 | — | +0.79 | +1.95 | +2.62 |
| 1984 | #153 | Randy Wright | OFF | +0.94 | +0.95 | — | +0.68 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.61 |
| 1985 | #71 | Rich Moran | OFF | +1.07 | +0.98 | — | +0.54 | — | -0.25 | -0.13 | +1.38 |
| 1984 | #126 | Tom Flynn | DEF | +0.36 | +0.80 | — | +0.70 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.27 |
| 1984 | #99 | John Dorsey | DEF | +1.12 | +0.06 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.77 |
| 1984 | #72 | Donnie Humphrey | DEF | +0.45 | +0.38 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.72 |
| 1986 | #143 | Burnell Dent | DEF | +1.33 | -0.25 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.50 |
| 1985 | #182 | Gary Ellerson | OFF | +0.31 | +0.16 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.32 |
| 1984 | #181 | Daryll Jones | DEF | +0.14 | -0.05 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 1985 | #155 | Mark Lewis | OFF | -0.09 | -0.10 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| 1986 | #183 | Ed Berry | DEF | -0.02 | -0.05 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 1984 | #12 | Alphonso Carreker | DEF | +0.08 | +0.26 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.37 | -0.15 | -0.18 |
| 1985 | #98 | Walter Stanley | OFF | -0.06 | -0.15 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.30 |
| 1986 | #125 | Matt Koart | DEF | -0.38 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1986 | #72 | Robbie Bosco | OFF | -0.37 | -0.17 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.45 |
| 1985 | #171 | Eric Wilson | DEF | -0.53 | -0.16 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1985 | #7 | Ken Ruettgers | OFF | +1.17 | +1.27 | — | +0.31 | — | -2.68 | -1.79 | -0.71 |
| 1986 | #98 | Dan Knight | OFF | -0.62 | -0.44 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.87 |
| 1986 | #41 | Kenneth Davis | OFF | -0.83 | -0.64 | — | -0.90 | — | -0.48 | -0.24 | -1.99 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.