Andrew Berry
CLE · Composite skill θ = -0.04 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.55 to +1.48
Evidence: 44 mapped picks across 6 draft classes, 2020–2025 · 45% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.08
- maturity discount
- +0.04
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2020–2025CLE
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | #52 | Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | DEF | +1.40 |
| 2025 | #144 | Shedeur Sanders | OFF | +1.31 |
| 2020 | #187 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | OFF | +1.05 |
| 2022 | #68 | Martin Emerson | DEF | +0.93 |
| 2023 | #140 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | OFF | +0.71 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | #91 | Anthony Schwartz | OFF | -1.34 |
| 2020 | #97 | Jacob Phillips | DEF | -0.92 |
| 2021 | #169 | Richard LeCounte | DEF | -0.90 |
| 2023 | #98 | Siaki Ika | DEF | -0.77 |
| 2021 | #211 | Demetric Felton | OFF | -0.77 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 44 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2021 | #52 | Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | DEF | +0.23 | +0.47 | +0.31 | +0.42 | +0.77 | +1.00 | -0.05 | +1.40 |
| 2025 | #144 | Shedeur Sanders | OFF | +0.33 | +0.50 | +0.67 | +0.27 | — | +1.09 | +0.00 | +1.31 |
| 2020 | #187 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | OFF | +0.56 | +0.55 | +0.96 | +0.52 | +0.26 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.05 |
| 2022 | #68 | Martin Emerson | DEF | +0.55 | +0.55 | +0.79 | +0.30 | +0.36 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.93 |
| 2023 | #140 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | OFF | +0.39 | +0.34 | +0.50 | +0.22 | +0.37 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.71 |
| 2025 | #67 | Harold Fannin | OFF | -0.08 | +0.17 | +0.13 | +0.25 | +1.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.69 |
| 2020 | #44 | Grant Delpit | DEF | +0.61 | +0.92 | +0.54 | +0.43 | -0.07 | -0.25 | -0.14 | +0.67 |
| 2020 | #88 | Jordan Elliott | DEF | +0.51 | +0.27 | +0.34 | +0.21 | +0.15 | -0.12 | -0.05 | +0.48 |
| 2024 | #206 | Nathaniel Watson | DEF | +0.23 | +0.21 | +0.59 | +0.13 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.47 |
| 2024 | #243 | Jowon Briggs | DEF | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.57 | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.44 |
| 2023 | #126 | Isaiah McGuire | DEF | +0.40 | +0.18 | +0.07 | +0.19 | +0.28 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.44 |
| 2022 | #124 | Cade York | ST | -0.08 | +0.17 | +0.59 | +0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.43 |
| 2021 | #153 | Tony Fields | DEF | +0.44 | -0.02 | -0.15 | +0.13 | +0.56 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.40 |
| 2025 | #94 | Dillon Gabriel | OFF | +0.25 | +0.32 | +0.35 | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 |
| 2022 | #156 | Jerome Ford | OFF | +0.77 | +0.32 | +0.61 | +0.25 | -0.58 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.37 |
| 2024 | #227 | Myles Harden | DEF | +0.32 | +0.27 | +0.62 | +0.26 | -0.36 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.34 |
| 2022 | #223 | Isaiah Thomas | DEF | -0.03 | +0.06 | +0.62 | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| 2023 | #190 | Luke Wypler | OFF | +0.15 | -0.06 | +0.09 | -0.02 | +0.51 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.29 |
| 2025 | #126 | Dylan Sampson | OFF | +0.11 | +0.18 | +0.13 | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 2022 | #78 | Alex Wright | DEF | +0.44 | -0.04 | -0.10 | +0.12 | +0.05 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.15 |
| 2024 | #156 | Jamari Thrash | OFF | +0.15 | +0.06 | -0.02 | +0.02 | -0.17 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 2020 | #115 | Harrison Bryant | OFF | +0.51 | +0.16 | +0.48 | -0.02 | -0.61 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -0.03 |
| 2025 | #33 | Carson Schwesinger | DEF | -0.27 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.15 | +0.23 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.09 |
| 2020 | #160 | Nick Harris | OFF | +0.37 | -0.36 | -0.45 | -0.18 | +0.36 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.10 |
| 2023 | #142 | Cameron Mitchell | DEF | +0.30 | -0.03 | -0.06 | +0.05 | -0.46 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2021 | #26 | Greg Newsome II | DEF | +0.21 | +0.31 | +0.13 | -0.10 | -0.45 | -0.23 | -0.13 | -0.24 |
| 2023 | #111 | Dawand Jones | OFF | +0.02 | +0.15 | -0.01 | +0.01 | -0.67 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| 2022 | #202 | Michael Woods II | OFF | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.48 | -0.02 | -1.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2024 | #54 | Michael Hall | DEF | -0.18 | -0.24 | -0.50 | -0.15 | +0.15 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2023 | #74 | Cedric Tillman | OFF | +0.26 | +0.18 | +0.11 | -0.06 | -0.93 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.36 |
| 2022 | #99 | David Bell | OFF | +0.23 | -0.05 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.67 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2025 | #36 | Quinshon Judkins | OFF | -0.24 | +0.09 | -0.31 | -0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2021 | #132 | Tommy Togiai | DEF | -0.36 | -0.36 | -0.27 | -0.24 | +0.04 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.46 |
| 2024 | #85 | Zak Zinter | OFF | +0.04 | -0.29 | -0.43 | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2022 | #108 | Perrion Winfrey | DEF | -0.38 | -0.34 | -0.05 | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 2025 | #5 | Mason Graham | DEF | -0.37 | -0.43 | -0.22 | -0.69 | +0.42 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.51 |
| 2021 | #110 | James Hudson | OFF | +0.31 | -0.21 | -0.35 | -0.17 | -0.63 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.54 |
| 2022 | #246 | Dawson Deaton | OFF | -0.44 | -0.28 | -0.59 | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 2020 | #10 | Jedrick Wills Jr. | OFF | +0.09 | +0.15 | +0.16 | -0.17 | -1.03 | -0.37 | -0.18 | -0.74 |
| 2021 | #211 | Demetric Felton | OFF | -0.08 | -0.11 | -0.77 | -0.19 | -0.64 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.77 |
| 2023 | #98 | Siaki Ika | DEF | -0.48 | -0.24 | -0.94 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| 2021 | #169 | Richard LeCounte | DEF | -0.48 | -0.33 | -1.11 | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.90 |
| 2020 | #97 | Jacob Phillips | DEF | -0.47 | -0.37 | -1.29 | -0.29 | +0.01 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.92 |
| 2021 | #91 | Anthony Schwartz | OFF | -0.30 | -0.46 | -1.42 | -0.40 | -0.66 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -1.34 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.