Mike Mayock
LV · Composite skill θ = +0.02 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.06 to +1.11
Evidence: 23 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 2019–2021 · 76% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- 0.00
- maturity discount
- -0.01
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2019–2021LVFired Jan 2022 alongside Gruden fallout; ran 2019-2021 drafts
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | #106 | Maxx Crosby | DEF | +6.69 |
| 2019 | #24 | Josh Jacobs | OFF | +2.59 |
| 2019 | #149 | Hunter Renfrow | OFF | +1.28 |
| 2021 | #167 | Nate Hobbs | DEF | +0.88 |
| 2021 | #80 | Divine Deablo | DEF | +0.83 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | #4 | Clelin Ferrell | DEF | -2.61 |
| 2020 | #19 | Damon Arnette | DEF | -2.26 |
| 2021 | #17 | Alex Leatherwood | OFF | -1.95 |
| 2020 | #12 | Henry Ruggs III | OFF | -1.79 |
| 2020 | #80 | Lynn Bowden Jr. | OFF | -1.45 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 23 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2019 | #106 | Maxx Crosby | DEF | +1.46 | +2.10 | +3.52 | +2.35 | +1.05 | +5.33 | -0.06 | +6.69 |
| 2019 | #24 | Josh Jacobs | OFF | +0.18 | +0.74 | +0.92 | +0.70 | +0.15 | +1.35 | +1.75 | +2.59 |
| 2019 | #149 | Hunter Renfrow | OFF | +0.67 | -0.04 | +0.43 | +0.37 | +0.60 | +0.96 | -0.07 | +1.28 |
| 2021 | #167 | Nate Hobbs | DEF | +0.51 | +0.69 | +1.02 | +0.31 | +0.05 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.88 |
| 2021 | #80 | Divine Deablo | DEF | +0.35 | +0.56 | +0.26 | +0.45 | +0.58 | -0.10 | -0.06 | +0.83 |
| 2021 | #43 | Tre'von Moehrig | DEF | +0.48 | +0.95 | +0.83 | +0.29 | -0.07 | -0.17 | -0.09 | +0.73 |
| 2020 | #139 | Amik Robertson | DEF | +0.30 | +0.02 | -0.18 | -0.05 | +0.39 | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.15 |
| 2019 | #137 | Foster Moreau | OFF | +0.30 | +0.18 | +0.83 | -0.04 | -0.48 | -0.15 | -0.07 | +0.06 |
| 2019 | #40 | Trayvon Mullen | DEF | -0.17 | +0.07 | -0.17 | -0.16 | +0.16 | -0.14 | -0.08 | -0.20 |
| 2021 | #79 | Malcolm Koonce | DEF | +0.41 | -0.20 | -0.06 | -0.08 | -0.67 | -0.09 | -0.03 | -0.39 |
| 2020 | #109 | John Simpson | OFF | -0.19 | -0.25 | -0.15 | -0.22 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -0.07 | -0.44 |
| 2021 | #230 | Jimmy Morrissey | OFF | -0.62 | -0.44 | +0.22 | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.64 |
| 2020 | #81 | Bryan Edwards | OFF | -0.23 | -0.14 | -0.60 | -0.23 | -0.30 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -0.66 |
| 2019 | #129 | Isaiah Johnson | DEF | -0.30 | -0.39 | -1.10 | -0.24 | -0.34 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.92 |
| 2019 | #230 | Quinton Bell | DEF | -0.94 | -0.53 | -0.05 | -0.48 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.03 |
| 2021 | #143 | Tyree Gillespie | DEF | -0.52 | -0.41 | -1.26 | -0.26 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.03 |
| 2020 | #100 | Tanner Muse | DEF | -0.86 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.38 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.06 |
| 2019 | #27 | Johnathan Abram | DEF | -0.47 | -0.16 | -0.52 | -0.46 | -0.76 | -0.31 | -0.18 | -1.23 |
| 2020 | #80 | Lynn Bowden Jr. | OFF | -0.91 | -0.56 | -1.13 | -0.50 | — | -0.11 | -0.05 | -1.45 |
| 2020 | #12 | Henry Ruggs III | OFF | -0.80 | -0.66 | -1.51 | -0.80 | -0.28 | -0.35 | -0.16 | -1.79 |
| 2021 | #17 | Alex Leatherwood | OFF | -0.88 | -0.84 | -1.29 | -0.80 | -0.60 | -0.34 | -0.16 | -1.95 |
| 2020 | #19 | Damon Arnette | DEF | -1.12 | -1.04 | -1.27 | -1.01 | -0.58 | -0.42 | -0.24 | -2.26 |
| 2019 | #4 | Clelin Ferrell | DEF | -0.31 | -0.92 | -0.53 | -1.22 | -1.57 | -0.85 | -0.42 | -2.61 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.