Bill Kuharich
NO · Composite skill θ = -0.07 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.92 to +0.78
Evidence: 25 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 1994–1996 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.20
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1994–1996NOGM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | #13 | Joe Johnson | DEF | +1.61 |
| 1994 | #79 | Winfred Tubbs | DEF | +0.82 |
| 1996 | #246 | Henry Lusk | OFF | +0.52 |
| 1994 | #143 | Craig Novitsky | OFF | +0.44 |
| 1995 | #44 | Ray Zellars | OFF | +0.38 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | #40 | Je'Rod Cherry | DEF | -1.83 |
| 1996 | #70 | Brady Smith | DEF | -0.95 |
| 1996 | #11 | Alex Molden | DEF | -0.92 |
| 1995 | #108 | Dameian Jeffries | DEF | -0.37 |
| 1996 | #103 | Ricky Whittle | OFF | -0.33 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 25 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1994 | #13 | Joe Johnson | DEF | +0.58 | +1.12 | — | +0.62 | — | +0.55 | -0.28 | +1.61 |
| 1994 | #79 | Winfred Tubbs | DEF | +0.18 | +0.46 | — | +0.55 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.82 |
| 1996 | #246 | Henry Lusk | OFF | +0.12 | +0.14 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.52 |
| 1994 | #143 | Craig Novitsky | OFF | +0.57 | +0.02 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.44 |
| 1995 | #44 | Ray Zellars | OFF | +0.40 | +0.39 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.38 |
| 1995 | #184 | Lee DeRamus | OFF | +0.24 | +0.14 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.28 |
| 1994 | #116 | Doug Nussmeier | OFF | -0.04 | +0.11 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| 1994 | #44 | Mario Bates | OFF | +0.12 | +0.35 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.14 | -0.07 | +0.15 |
| 1996 | #179 | Keno Hills | OFF | +0.19 | +0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.14 |
| 1996 | #145 | Tom Ackerman | OFF | +0.86 | -0.28 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.07 |
| 1995 | #242 | Travis Davis | DEF | -0.23 | +0.09 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 1994 | #176 | Derrell Mitchell | OFF | +0.00 | +0.01 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 1995 | #13 | Mark Fields | DEF | +0.18 | +0.24 | — | -0.11 | — | +0.34 | -0.58 | -0.02 |
| 1995 | #148 | William Strong | DEF | -0.19 | -0.06 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 1996 | #204 | Toderick Malone | OFF | -0.28 | +0.06 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 1996 | #136 | Mercury Hayes | OFF | -0.15 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 1996 | #165 | Terry Guess | OFF | -0.28 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 1994 | #142 | Herman Carroll | DEF | -0.31 | -0.05 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.19 |
| 1995 | #75 | Mike Verstegen | OFF | -0.09 | -0.14 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1994 | #213 | Lance Lundberg | OFF | -0.29 | -0.13 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.27 |
| 1996 | #103 | Ricky Whittle | OFF | -0.29 | -0.12 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1995 | #108 | Dameian Jeffries | DEF | -0.44 | -0.14 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1996 | #11 | Alex Molden | DEF | +0.22 | -0.40 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.29 | -0.22 | -0.92 |
| 1996 | #70 | Brady Smith | DEF | -0.16 | -0.46 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.19 | -0.10 | -0.95 |
| 1996 | #40 | Je'Rod Cherry | DEF | -0.16 | -1.23 | — | -0.94 | — | -0.23 | -0.17 | -1.83 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.