Terry Bradway
NYJ · Composite skill θ = -0.53 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.32 to +0.27
Evidence: 36 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2001–2005 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.40
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2001–2005NYJGM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | #123 | Kerry Rhodes | DEF | +2.24 |
| 2005 | #88 | Sione Pouha | DEF | +2.01 |
| 2002 | #22 | Bryan Thomas | DEF | +1.64 |
| 2003 | #53 | Victor Hobson | DEF | +1.45 |
| 2001 | #206 | James Reed | DEF | +1.08 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | #47 | Mike Nugent | ST | -6.86 |
| 2001 | #16 | Santana Moss | OFF | -5.59 |
| 2002 | #154 | Jonathan Goodwin | OFF | -2.86 |
| 2002 | #57 | Jon McGraw | DEF | -2.29 |
| 2004 | #12 | Jonathan Vilma | DEF | -1.52 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 36 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2005 | #123 | Kerry Rhodes | DEF | +0.83 | +1.46 | — | +1.16 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | +2.24 |
| 2005 | #88 | Sione Pouha | DEF | +1.37 | +0.74 | — | +1.02 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +2.01 |
| 2002 | #22 | Bryan Thomas | DEF | +1.65 | +1.06 | — | +0.79 | — | -0.67 | -0.36 | +1.64 |
| 2003 | #53 | Victor Hobson | DEF | +0.84 | +0.90 | — | +0.63 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +1.45 |
| 2001 | #206 | James Reed | DEF | +1.25 | +0.18 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.08 |
| 2003 | #4 | Dewayne Robertson | DEF | +0.64 | +0.77 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | +0.72 |
| 2004 | #236 | Rashad Washington | DEF | +0.87 | +0.06 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.69 |
| 2004 | #132 | Adrian Jones | OFF | +0.59 | +0.13 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| 2004 | #143 | Erik Coleman | DEF | +0.26 | +0.53 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.08 | -0.07 | +0.48 |
| 2004 | #234 | Trevor Johnson | DEF | +0.35 | +0.08 | — | +0.23 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.44 |
| 2002 | #88 | Chris Baker | OFF | +0.95 | +0.39 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.16 | -0.08 | +0.41 |
| 2003 | #200 | Brooks Bollinger | OFF | +0.10 | +0.28 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.41 |
| 2005 | #182 | Cedric Houston | OFF | +0.09 | +0.17 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 2004 | #108 | Jerricho Cotchery | OFF | +0.47 | +0.29 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.42 | -0.29 | +0.29 |
| 2001 | #101 | Jamie Henderson | DEF | +0.24 | -0.17 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| 2003 | #140 | Derek Pagel | DEF | +0.02 | -0.10 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 2005 | #240 | Harry Williams | OFF | -0.23 | +0.07 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 2003 | #150 | Matt Walters | DEF | -0.14 | -0.05 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 2004 | #76 | Derrick Strait | DEF | -0.01 | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.13 |
| 2002 | #121 | Alan Harper | DEF | -0.20 | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2003 | #237 | Dave Yovanovits | OFF | -0.17 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 2005 | #161 | Andre Maddox | DEF | -0.42 | -0.07 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2001 | #217 | Tupe Peko | OFF | -0.29 | -0.13 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.26 |
| 2005 | #57 | Justin Miller | DEF | -0.46 | -0.63 | — | -0.26 | — | +0.95 | -0.10 | -0.37 |
| 2004 | #213 | Darrell McClover | DEF | -0.20 | -0.22 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2004 | #178 | Marko Cavka | OFF | -0.38 | -0.21 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2003 | #85 | B.J. Askew | OFF | +0.32 | -0.39 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.63 |
| 2001 | #79 | Kareem McKenzie | OFF | -0.53 | -0.26 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.36 | -0.25 | -1.06 |
| 2004 | #235 | Derrick Ward | OFF | -0.90 | -0.42 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.19 |
| 2005 | #198 | Joel Dreessen | OFF | -0.87 | -0.78 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.39 |
| 2001 | #49 | LaMont Jordan | OFF | -0.07 | -1.11 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.33 | -0.19 | -1.40 |
| 2004 | #12 | Jonathan Vilma | DEF | -0.78 | -0.45 | — | -0.64 | — | +0.19 | -0.73 | -1.52 |
| 2002 | #57 | Jon McGraw | DEF | -0.94 | -1.10 | — | -1.01 | — | -0.29 | -0.23 | -2.29 |
| 2002 | #154 | Jonathan Goodwin | OFF | -0.73 | -1.43 | — | -1.47 | — | -0.34 | -0.28 | -2.86 |
| 2001 | #16 | Santana Moss | OFF | -1.68 | -1.76 | — | -1.60 | — | -2.63 | -1.91 | -5.59 |
| 2005 | #47 | Mike Nugent | ST | -2.10 | -2.38 | — | -2.25 | — | -2.23 | -2.52 | -6.86 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.