Mike Holovak
TEN · Composite skill θ = -0.21 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.01 to +0.59
Evidence: 30 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 1990–1993 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.32
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1990–1993TENDirector Player Personnel (Houston Oilers); Glanville/Pardee HC era; pre-relocation
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | #102 | Marcus Robertson | DEF | +3.44 |
| 1993 | #13 | Brad Hopkins | OFF | +3.15 |
| 1992 | #133 | Joe Bowden | DEF | +2.48 |
| 1992 | #50 | Eddie Robinson | DEF | +1.95 |
| 1991 | #38 | Darryll Lewis | DEF | +1.74 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | #77 | Corey Harris | DEF | -3.83 |
| 1991 | #28 | Mike Dumas | DEF | -3.09 |
| 1993 | #47 | Micheal Barrow | DEF | -3.01 |
| 1990 | #15 | Lamar Lathon | DEF | -1.44 |
| 1991 | #79 | Kevin Donnalley | OFF | -1.07 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 30 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1991 | #102 | Marcus Robertson | DEF | +1.22 | +1.71 | — | +1.22 | — | -0.34 | +1.87 | +3.44 |
| 1993 | #13 | Brad Hopkins | OFF | +1.99 | +2.61 | — | +1.57 | — | +0.09 | -1.54 | +3.15 |
| 1992 | #133 | Joe Bowden | DEF | +1.62 | +1.42 | — | +1.04 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | +2.48 |
| 1992 | #50 | Eddie Robinson | DEF | +1.00 | +1.69 | — | +1.08 | — | -0.54 | -0.39 | +1.95 |
| 1991 | #38 | Darryll Lewis | DEF | +0.90 | +0.81 | — | +0.68 | — | +0.70 | -0.28 | +1.74 |
| 1991 | #71 | Steve Jackson | DEF | +1.39 | -0.33 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.16 | -0.11 | +0.40 |
| 1990 | #153 | Tony Jones | OFF | +0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.36 |
| 1991 | #129 | Gary Wellman | OFF | +0.22 | -0.02 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| 1992 | #135 | Tony Brown | DEF | +0.23 | -0.07 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 1992 | #136 | Tim Roberts | DEF | +0.15 | -0.02 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| 1993 | #102 | Travis Hannah | OFF | +0.38 | -0.17 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 1992 | #189 | Elbert Turner | OFF | -0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 1993 | #131 | John Henry Mills | DEF | +0.62 | -0.50 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.15 |
| 1993 | #187 | Patrick Robinson | OFF | -0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 1990 | #41 | Jeff Alm | DEF | +0.29 | -0.27 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1990 | #184 | Andy Murray | OFF | -0.38 | +0.05 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1992 | #162 | Mario Bailey | OFF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1991 | #183 | Kyle Freeman | DEF | -0.43 | -0.08 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1993 | #158 | Chuck Bradley | OFF | -0.40 | -0.23 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1991 | #101 | David Rocker | DEF | -0.53 | -0.18 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1990 | #72 | Willis Peguese | DEF | -0.40 | -0.27 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1990 | #126 | Richard Newbill | DEF | -0.57 | -0.21 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1992 | #108 | Mike Mooney | OFF | -0.53 | -0.36 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 1990 | #99 | Eric Still | OFF | -0.57 | -0.40 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| 1991 | #44 | John Flannery | OFF | -0.24 | -0.46 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | -0.97 |
| 1991 | #79 | Kevin Donnalley | OFF | +0.27 | -0.16 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.70 | -0.49 | -1.07 |
| 1990 | #15 | Lamar Lathon | DEF | -0.24 | -0.43 | — | -0.66 | — | -0.53 | -0.37 | -1.44 |
| 1993 | #47 | Micheal Barrow | DEF | -1.09 | -0.85 | — | -1.11 | — | -1.03 | -0.83 | -3.01 |
| 1991 | #28 | Mike Dumas | DEF | -1.20 | -1.54 | — | -1.31 | — | -0.48 | -0.34 | -3.09 |
| 1992 | #77 | Corey Harris | DEF | -2.01 | -1.62 | — | -1.62 | — | -0.44 | -0.35 | -3.83 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.