Brad Holmes
DET · Composite skill θ = +0.58 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.56 to +2.73
Evidence: 36 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2021–2025 · 38% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.93
- maturity discount
- -0.94
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2021–2025DET
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | #112 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | OFF | +8.41 |
| 2021 | #7 | Penei Sewell | OFF | +7.83 |
| 2022 | #97 | Kerby Joseph | DEF | +3.31 |
| 2023 | #12 | Jahmyr Gibbs | OFF | +3.14 |
| 2023 | #18 | Jack Campbell | DEF | +2.40 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | #96 | Brodric Martin | DEF | -0.62 |
| 2021 | #41 | Levi Onwuzurike | DEF | -0.60 |
| 2025 | #28 | Tyleik Williams | DEF | -0.48 |
| 2021 | #257 | Jermar Jefferson | OFF | -0.44 |
| 2025 | #70 | Isaac TeSlaa | OFF | -0.44 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 36 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2021 | #112 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | OFF | +1.17 | +1.60 | +2.13 | +2.33 | +2.67 | +4.29 | +4.26 | +8.41 |
| 2021 | #7 | Penei Sewell | OFF | +0.64 | +0.75 | +1.11 | +1.60 | +2.28 | +3.91 | +6.21 | +7.83 |
| 2022 | #97 | Kerby Joseph | DEF | +0.59 | +1.04 | +0.75 | +0.89 | +2.09 | -0.05 | +2.12 | +3.31 |
| 2023 | #12 | Jahmyr Gibbs | OFF | +0.16 | -0.23 | +0.35 | +0.87 | +2.22 | +3.08 | -0.09 | +3.14 |
| 2023 | #18 | Jack Campbell | DEF | +0.19 | +0.36 | +0.51 | +0.31 | +0.75 | +0.96 | +2.08 | +2.40 |
| 2023 | #34 | Sam LaPorta | OFF | +0.12 | +0.41 | +0.35 | +0.61 | +2.42 | +1.00 | -0.03 | +2.28 |
| 2023 | #45 | Brian Branch | DEF | +0.25 | +0.49 | +0.25 | +0.27 | +0.83 | +1.03 | -0.03 | +1.38 |
| 2022 | #2 | Aidan Hutchinson | DEF | +0.16 | +0.15 | +0.59 | -0.15 | +0.17 | +1.91 | -0.13 | +1.20 |
| 2021 | #72 | Alim McNeill | DEF | +0.75 | +1.04 | +0.86 | +0.59 | +0.13 | -0.09 | -0.03 | +1.18 |
| 2021 | #113 | Derrick Barnes | DEF | +0.80 | +0.73 | +0.59 | +0.42 | +0.05 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.90 |
| 2024 | #210 | Christian Mahogany | OFF | +0.23 | +0.26 | +0.57 | +0.22 | +0.73 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.82 |
| 2022 | #188 | Malcolm Rodriguez | DEF | +0.60 | +0.44 | +0.24 | +0.29 | +0.40 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.74 |
| 2025 | #244 | Dominic Lovett | OFF | +0.30 | +0.29 | +0.50 | +0.16 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.52 |
| 2025 | #196 | Ahmed Hassanein | DEF | -0.07 | +0.23 | +0.29 | +0.16 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.31 |
| 2025 | #230 | Dan Jackson | ST | -0.03 | +0.25 | — | +0.20 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.31 |
| 2022 | #12 | Jameson Williams | OFF | +0.06 | -0.07 | -0.11 | +0.13 | +0.81 | -0.26 | -0.11 | +0.25 |
| 2024 | #189 | Mekhi Wingo | DEF | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.11 | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 |
| 2022 | #46 | Josh Paschal | DEF | +0.13 | +0.03 | -0.08 | +0.00 | +0.18 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.09 |
| 2023 | #152 | Colby Sorsdal | OFF | +0.13 | -0.06 | +0.16 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| 2025 | #171 | Miles Frazier | OFF | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.28 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2022 | #217 | James Houston | DEF | -0.15 | -0.13 | -0.34 | -0.07 | +0.48 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.03 |
| 2022 | #237 | Chase Lucas | DEF | -0.01 | -0.11 | +0.06 | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2024 | #24 | Terrion Arnold | DEF | -0.19 | -0.01 | -0.27 | -0.21 | +0.47 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.07 |
| 2025 | #57 | Tate Ratledge | OFF | -0.05 | +0.08 | +0.27 | -0.03 | -0.45 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2023 | #219 | Antoine Green | OFF | -0.09 | +0.01 | -0.30 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2023 | #68 | Hendon Hooker | OFF | -0.11 | -0.04 | -0.18 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.20 |
| 2021 | #101 | Ifeatu Melifonwu | DEF | +0.00 | -0.14 | -0.69 | -0.14 | +0.17 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.32 |
| 2024 | #132 | Sione Vaki | ST | +0.30 | -0.04 | +0.11 | +0.03 | -0.90 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2022 | #177 | James Mitchell | OFF | +0.13 | -0.22 | -0.43 | +0.08 | -0.40 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2024 | #61 | Ennis Rakestraw | DEF | -0.21 | -0.15 | -0.23 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2024 | #126 | Giovanni Manu | OFF | -0.28 | -0.21 | -0.30 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2025 | #70 | Isaac TeSlaa | OFF | +0.02 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.09 | -0.75 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 2021 | #257 | Jermar Jefferson | OFF | -0.37 | -0.16 | -0.14 | -0.19 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.44 |
| 2025 | #28 | Tyleik Williams | DEF | -0.19 | -0.15 | -0.26 | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2021 | #41 | Levi Onwuzurike | DEF | +0.10 | -0.37 | -0.16 | -0.24 | -0.57 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.60 |
| 2023 | #96 | Brodric Martin | DEF | -0.46 | -0.22 | -0.67 | -0.15 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.