Nick Caserio
HOU · Composite skill θ = +0.28 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.50 to +2.07
Evidence: 41 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2021–2025 · 35% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.73
- maturity discount
- -0.53
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2021–2025HOU
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #3 | Derek Stingley Jr. | DEF | +4.75 |
| 2021 | #89 | Nico Collins | OFF | +3.06 |
| 2024 | #78 | Calen Bullock | ST | +2.15 |
| 2024 | #42 | Kamari Lassiter | DEF | +1.74 |
| 2023 | #167 | Henry To'oTo'o | DEF | +1.53 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #44 | John Metchie | OFF | -1.36 |
| 2022 | #15 | Kenyon Green | OFF | -1.14 |
| 2023 | #62 | Juice Scruggs | OFF | -0.72 |
| 2025 | #48 | Aireontae Ersery | OFF | -0.64 |
| 2025 | #34 | Jayden Higgins | OFF | -0.55 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 41 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2022 | #3 | Derek Stingley Jr. | DEF | +0.08 | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.19 | +3.15 | +1.88 | +4.09 | +4.75 |
| 2021 | #89 | Nico Collins | OFF | +0.68 | +0.89 | +0.55 | +1.04 | +1.61 | +2.08 | -0.05 | +3.06 |
| 2024 | #78 | Calen Bullock | ST | +0.31 | +0.61 | +0.52 | +0.45 | +1.84 | +1.07 | -0.01 | +2.15 |
| 2024 | #42 | Kamari Lassiter | DEF | +0.06 | +0.40 | +0.26 | +0.25 | +1.72 | +1.05 | -0.02 | +1.74 |
| 2023 | #167 | Henry To'oTo'o | DEF | +0.61 | +0.81 | +0.99 | +0.63 | +0.88 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.53 |
| 2023 | #3 | Will Anderson | DEF | -0.04 | -0.11 | -0.33 | +0.17 | +3.07 | -0.22 | -0.14 | +1.28 |
| 2021 | #195 | Roy Lopez | DEF | +0.14 | +0.52 | +0.82 | +0.34 | +1.25 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.27 |
| 2023 | #69 | Tank Dell | OFF | +0.11 | +0.29 | +0.28 | +0.30 | +1.41 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.07 |
| 2022 | #37 | Jalen Pitre | DEF | +0.42 | +0.85 | +0.27 | +0.36 | +0.79 | -0.12 | -0.06 | +1.00 |
| 2025 | #197 | Graham Mertz | OFF | +0.25 | +0.40 | +0.65 | +0.26 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.69 |
| 2023 | #201 | Jarrett Patterson | OFF | +0.58 | +0.37 | +0.45 | +0.21 | +0.07 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.60 |
| 2024 | #238 | Solomon Byrd | DEF | +0.06 | +0.32 | +0.71 | +0.24 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.60 |
| 2024 | #59 | Blake Fisher | OFF | +0.16 | -0.08 | -0.31 | -0.05 | +1.44 | -0.04 | -0.01 | +0.59 |
| 2025 | #255 | Luke Lachey | OFF | -0.03 | +0.24 | +0.29 | +0.39 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.56 |
| 2025 | #116 | Woody Marks | OFF | +0.11 | +0.32 | +0.36 | +0.22 | +0.24 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.48 |
| 2025 | #224 | Kyonte Hamilton | DEF | -0.02 | +0.27 | +0.43 | +0.19 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.42 |
| 2025 | #187 | Jaylen Reed | ST | +0.07 | +0.22 | +0.29 | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.39 |
| 2023 | #205 | Xavier Hutchinson | OFF | +0.85 | +0.24 | +0.98 | +0.22 | -0.80 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 2023 | #2 | C.J. Stroud | OFF | +0.39 | +0.18 | +0.37 | +0.14 | +0.12 | -0.15 | -0.03 | +0.35 |
| 2022 | #107 | Dameon Pierce | OFF | +0.28 | +0.25 | -0.33 | +0.19 | +0.45 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.34 |
| 2022 | #75 | Christian Harris | DEF | +0.22 | +0.18 | -0.28 | +0.16 | +0.47 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.30 |
| 2021 | #67 | Davis Mills | OFF | +0.39 | +0.33 | -0.17 | +0.36 | -0.16 | -0.09 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 2021 | #147 | Brevin Jordan | OFF | +0.24 | +0.06 | -0.43 | +0.20 | +0.39 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 2024 | #247 | Marcus Harris | DEF | -0.12 | +0.18 | +0.10 | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 |
| 2024 | #188 | Jamal Hill | DEF | +0.17 | +0.00 | -0.04 | +0.04 | +0.23 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 2024 | #123 | Cade Stover | OFF | +0.16 | +0.34 | +0.15 | +0.23 | -0.42 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2024 | #205 | Jawhar Jordan | OFF | -0.13 | +0.17 | -0.11 | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.05 |
| 2024 | #249 | LaDarius Henderson | OFF | -0.14 | -0.02 | +0.21 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 2025 | #79 | Jaylin Noel | OFF | +0.05 | +0.00 | -0.01 | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2023 | #248 | Brandon Hill | DEF | -0.23 | +0.03 | -0.32 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2025 | #97 | Jaylin Smith | DEF | -0.22 | -0.03 | -0.21 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2022 | #170 | Teagan Quitoriano | OFF | -0.05 | +0.16 | -0.41 | +0.07 | -0.35 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2022 | #150 | Thomas Booker | DEF | -0.35 | -0.20 | +0.08 | -0.13 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2023 | #109 | Dylan Horton | DEF | +0.40 | -0.21 | +0.02 | -0.02 | -0.77 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2021 | #170 | Garret Wallow | DEF | -0.03 | -0.29 | -0.36 | -0.21 | -0.20 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.47 |
| 2022 | #205 | Austin Deculus | OFF | -0.19 | -0.31 | -0.34 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2025 | #34 | Jayden Higgins | OFF | -0.15 | -0.09 | -0.10 | -0.24 | -0.60 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2025 | #48 | Aireontae Ersery | OFF | -0.12 | -0.01 | +0.20 | -0.09 | -1.20 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 2023 | #62 | Juice Scruggs | OFF | +0.17 | -0.05 | -0.12 | -0.17 | -1.19 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.72 |
| 2022 | #15 | Kenyon Green | OFF | -0.31 | -0.41 | -0.20 | -0.59 | -0.89 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -1.14 |
| 2022 | #44 | John Metchie | OFF | -0.23 | -0.57 | -0.89 | -0.47 | -0.93 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -1.36 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.