Ted Thompson
GB · Composite skill θ = +0.67 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.21 to +1.13
Composite θ
+0.67
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
+0.21–+1.13
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
100%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
interval excludes zero
Evidence: 121 mapped picks across 13 draft classes, 2005–2017 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.08
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2005–2017GB
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | #24 | Aaron Rodgers | OFF | +10.72 |
| 2013 | #109 | David Bakhtiari | OFF | +7.15 |
| 2014 | #53 | Davante Adams | OFF | +5.84 |
| 2005 | #51 | Nick Collins | DEF | +4.70 |
| 2008 | #135 | Josh Sitton | OFF | +4.08 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | #243 | Clark Harris | OFF | -5.28 |
| 2011 | #233 | Lawrence Guy | DEF | -4.26 |
| 2012 | #62 | Casey Hayward | DEF | -2.83 |
| 2008 | #150 | Breno Giacomini | OFF | -2.66 |
| 2007 | #119 | Allen Barbre | OFF | -2.65 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 121 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2005 | #24 | Aaron Rodgers | OFF | +1.10 | +2.21 | +0.18 | +5.32 | +0.84 | +5.51 | +7.45 | +10.72 |
| 2013 | #109 | David Bakhtiari | OFF | +1.23 | +2.01 | +1.10 | +2.89 | +1.83 | +2.74 | +3.93 | +7.15 |
| 2014 | #53 | Davante Adams | OFF | +0.43 | +1.12 | +1.32 | +1.44 | +1.24 | +3.79 | +3.30 | +5.84 |
| 2005 | #51 | Nick Collins | DEF | +1.15 | +1.82 | — | +1.65 | — | +3.19 | -0.07 | +4.70 |
| 2008 | #135 | Josh Sitton | OFF | +1.14 | +1.63 | +0.66 | +2.36 | +2.89 | +0.81 | -0.21 | +4.08 |
| 2009 | #26 | Clay Matthews | DEF | +1.17 | +1.86 | +0.15 | +2.02 | +0.24 | +3.15 | -0.95 | +3.29 |
| 2017 | #182 | Aaron Jones | OFF | +0.92 | +1.46 | +1.41 | +1.81 | +1.53 | +0.83 | -0.17 | +3.27 |
| 2016 | #27 | Kenny Clark | DEF | +1.29 | +1.74 | +1.72 | +1.44 | +0.17 | +2.15 | -0.52 | +3.20 |
| 2014 | #161 | Corey Linsley | OFF | +0.79 | +1.43 | +1.23 | +1.28 | +0.89 | -0.26 | +1.97 | +3.09 |
| 2006 | #52 | Greg Jennings | OFF | +0.54 | +1.01 | — | +1.42 | — | +1.73 | -0.27 | +2.93 |
| 2013 | #61 | Eddie Lacy | OFF | +0.39 | +0.88 | +1.31 | +1.13 | +1.69 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +2.21 |
| 2009 | #109 | T.J. Lang | OFF | +1.24 | +1.25 | +0.73 | +1.47 | +0.91 | -0.27 | -0.18 | +2.04 |
| 2012 | #132 | Mike Daniels | DEF | +0.85 | +0.86 | +1.16 | +0.67 | +0.50 | +0.90 | -0.11 | +1.94 |
| 2016 | #137 | Dean Lowry | DEF | +1.22 | +1.21 | +1.33 | +0.82 | +0.44 | -0.19 | -0.09 | +1.74 |
| 2008 | #91 | Jermichael Finley | OFF | +0.82 | +0.82 | +0.25 | +1.09 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.68 |
| 2008 | #36 | Jordy Nelson | OFF | +1.17 | +0.72 | +0.66 | +1.74 | +1.32 | -0.97 | -0.58 | +1.61 |
| 2007 | #78 | James Jones | OFF | +1.44 | +0.67 | +0.54 | +1.23 | +0.15 | -0.23 | -0.13 | +1.39 |
| 2010 | #193 | James Starks | OFF | +1.01 | +0.00 | +0.99 | +0.86 | +0.54 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.32 |
| 2006 | #75 | Jason Spitz | OFF | +0.71 | +0.55 | — | +0.61 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.20 |
| 2009 | #218 | Brad Jones | DEF | +1.00 | +0.55 | +0.89 | +0.45 | +0.35 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.18 |
| 2010 | #154 | Andrew Quarless | OFF | +0.71 | +0.38 | +0.99 | +0.34 | +0.51 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.10 |
| 2015 | #129 | Jake Ryan | DEF | +0.31 | +0.38 | +0.92 | +0.34 | +0.84 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.09 |
| 2008 | #209 | Matt Flynn | OFF | +0.69 | -0.01 | +0.94 | +0.11 | +0.97 | -0.02 | +0.00 | +1.07 |
| 2006 | #183 | Johnny Jolly | DEF | +0.50 | +0.75 | +0.53 | +0.46 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.02 |
| 2016 | #131 | Blake Martinez | DEF | +0.12 | +0.65 | +1.32 | +0.50 | +0.42 | -0.18 | -0.12 | +1.01 |
| 2006 | #47 | Daryn Colledge | OFF | +0.33 | +0.70 | — | +0.63 | — | -0.32 | -0.20 | +0.88 |
| 2010 | #56 | Mike Neal | DEF | +0.67 | +0.16 | +1.06 | +0.26 | +0.21 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.83 |
| 2009 | #9 | B.J. Raji | DEF | +0.74 | +0.78 | -0.02 | +0.29 | +0.74 | -0.25 | -0.12 | +0.82 |
| 2005 | #125 | Brady Poppinga | DEF | +0.78 | +0.45 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | +0.79 |
| 2013 | #193 | Nate Palmer | DEF | +0.03 | +0.13 | +0.74 | +0.13 | +0.63 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.67 |
| 2005 | #180 | Mike Montgomery | DEF | +0.84 | +0.04 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.65 |
| 2010 | #71 | Morgan Burnett | DEF | +0.69 | +1.49 | +0.56 | +0.30 | -0.33 | -0.38 | -0.29 | +0.57 |
| 2007 | #191 | Korey Hall | DEF | +0.70 | +0.61 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.56 |
| 2013 | #232 | Sam Barrington | DEF | +0.04 | +0.08 | +0.22 | +0.04 | +0.84 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2007 | #192 | Desmond Bishop | DEF | +0.61 | +0.07 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.46 |
| 2010 | #230 | C.J. Wilson | DEF | +0.47 | -0.05 | +0.77 | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.43 |
| 2005 | #246 | Will Whitticker | OFF | +0.09 | +0.27 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.39 |
| 2015 | #147 | Brett Hundley | OFF | +0.08 | +0.19 | +0.43 | +0.16 | +0.09 | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.34 |
| 2006 | #165 | Tony Moll | OFF | +0.32 | +0.07 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 2007 | #63 | Brandon Jackson | OFF | +0.33 | -0.08 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.30 |
| 2012 | #28 | Nick Perry | DEF | +0.60 | +0.24 | -0.27 | +0.13 | +0.35 | -0.20 | -0.09 | +0.29 |
| 2015 | #206 | Aaron Ripkowski | OFF | +0.63 | +0.19 | +0.00 | -0.05 | +0.08 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 2007 | #228 | DeShawn Wynn | OFF | +0.06 | +0.19 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.24 |
| 2012 | #243 | B.J. Coleman | OFF | -0.04 | +0.16 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2014 | #21 | Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | DEF | +0.05 | +0.37 | +0.23 | -0.11 | -0.15 | +0.56 | -0.36 | +0.18 |
| 2012 | #133 | Jerron McMillian | DEF | +0.10 | -0.18 | +0.73 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.16 |
| 2008 | #217 | Brett Swain | OFF | +0.20 | +0.03 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.15 |
| 2011 | #218 | Ryan Taylor | OFF | +0.77 | -0.04 | +0.97 | +0.18 | -1.00 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.15 |
| 2013 | #167 | Josh Boyd | DEF | +0.12 | -0.04 | -0.12 | +0.09 | +0.20 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| 2009 | #182 | Jarius Wynn | DEF | +0.26 | -0.12 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2009 | #187 | Brandon Underwood | DEF | +0.14 | -0.07 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2011 | #141 | D.J. Williams | OFF | +0.04 | -0.18 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2011 | #186 | D.J. Smith | DEF | +0.00 | +0.07 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 2006 | #148 | Ingle Martin | OFF | -0.10 | +0.08 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 2014 | #236 | Jeff Janis | OFF | +0.83 | -0.04 | +0.56 | +0.01 | -0.83 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 2007 | #89 | Aaron Rouse | DEF | +0.03 | -0.02 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.03 |
| 2005 | #245 | Kurt Campbell | DEF | -0.27 | +0.06 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.00 |
| 2005 | #167 | Michael Hawkins | DEF | -0.14 | -0.03 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2017 | #134 | Jamaal Williams | OFF | +0.14 | -0.25 | +0.82 | +0.14 | -0.30 | -0.25 | -0.14 | -0.05 |
| 2005 | #143 | Junius Coston | OFF | -0.08 | -0.10 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2014 | #197 | Demetri Goodson | DEF | +0.14 | -0.06 | -0.20 | +0.02 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 2013 | #216 | Charles Johnson | OFF | -0.42 | -0.08 | +0.57 | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2009 | #145 | Quinn Johnson | OFF | -0.03 | +0.02 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2005 | #195 | Craig Bragg | OFF | -0.33 | +0.01 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2005 | #115 | Marviel Underwood | DEF | -0.14 | -0.18 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2011 | #64 | Randall Cobb | OFF | +0.64 | +0.20 | +0.09 | +0.94 | +0.41 | -1.46 | -0.96 | -0.22 |
| 2011 | #197 | Ricky Elmore | DEF | -0.42 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.27 |
| 2014 | #176 | Jared Abbrederis | OFF | -0.15 | -0.16 | -0.22 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2008 | #102 | Jeremy Thompson | DEF | -0.22 | -0.15 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2011 | #96 | Alex Green | OFF | -0.29 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.31 |
| 2007 | #157 | David Clowney | OFF | -0.43 | -0.09 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2013 | #224 | Kevin Dorsey | OFF | -0.33 | -0.06 | -0.39 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2015 | #62 | Quinten Rollins | DEF | -0.07 | -0.13 | -0.42 | -0.11 | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.37 |
| 2015 | #213 | Kennard Backman | OFF | -0.36 | -0.18 | -0.83 | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2017 | #247 | Malachi Dupre | OFF | -0.46 | -0.12 | -0.27 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2012 | #241 | Andrew Datko | OFF | -0.38 | -0.22 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 2008 | #60 | Pat Lee | DEF | +0.03 | -0.41 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.44 |
| 2011 | #131 | Davon House | DEF | +0.16 | -0.03 | +0.29 | -0.21 | -0.82 | -0.09 | -0.07 | -0.45 |
| 2015 | #30 | Damarious Randall | DEF | -0.28 | -0.14 | +0.20 | -0.29 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.11 | -0.45 |
| 2016 | #163 | Trevor Davis | OFF | +0.16 | -0.23 | -0.48 | -0.16 | -0.38 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| 2014 | #98 | Richard Rodgers | OFF | -0.06 | -0.47 | +0.16 | -0.29 | +0.04 | -0.32 | -0.16 | -0.49 |
| 2017 | #238 | Devante Mays | OFF | -0.31 | -0.08 | -0.68 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 2016 | #88 | Kyler Fackrell | DEF | +0.41 | -0.45 | +0.64 | -0.17 | -1.22 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.57 |
| 2011 | #179 | Caleb Schlauderaff | OFF | -0.47 | -0.30 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 2006 | #104 | Cory Rodgers | OFF | -0.55 | -0.21 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 2012 | #163 | Terrell Manning | DEF | -0.47 | -0.24 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 2008 | #56 | Brian Brohm | OFF | -0.43 | -0.27 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | +0.00 | -0.61 |
| 2007 | #193 | Mason Crosby | ST | +3.09 | -2.16 | +1.01 | -0.55 | -0.45 | -0.66 | -0.96 | -0.66 |
| 2013 | #125 | Johnathan Franklin | OFF | -0.37 | -0.21 | -0.81 | -0.19 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 2013 | #159 | Micah Hyde | DEF | -0.29 | -0.40 | +0.23 | -0.50 | +0.00 | -0.29 | -0.26 | -0.68 |
| 2006 | #185 | Tyrone Culver | DEF | -0.44 | -0.39 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.69 |
| 2006 | #253 | Dave Tollefson | DEF | -0.65 | -0.27 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 2014 | #85 | Khyri Thornton | DEF | -0.75 | -0.40 | -0.17 | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| 2017 | #175 | DeAngelo Yancey | OFF | -0.59 | -0.23 | -0.90 | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.80 |
| 2017 | #212 | Kofi Amichia | OFF | -0.54 | -0.36 | -0.66 | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.80 |
| 2017 | #108 | Vince Biegel | DEF | -0.62 | -0.48 | -0.23 | -0.36 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.84 |
| 2006 | #67 | Abdul Hodge | DEF | -0.58 | -0.43 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.87 |
| 2005 | #58 | Terrence Murphy | OFF | -0.63 | -0.40 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
| 2016 | #200 | Kyle Murphy | OFF | -0.59 | -0.45 | -0.74 | -0.32 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.94 |
| 2016 | #48 | Jason Spriggs | OFF | -0.28 | -0.76 | -0.86 | -0.48 | +0.14 | -0.17 | -0.09 | -0.94 |
| 2015 | #94 | Ty Montgomery | OFF | -0.69 | -0.73 | -0.65 | -0.46 | +0.39 | -0.37 | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| 2017 | #61 | Josh Jones | DEF | -0.41 | -0.44 | +0.08 | -0.40 | -0.92 | -0.13 | -0.08 | -1.03 |
| 2014 | #121 | Carl Bradford | DEF | -0.64 | -0.37 | -1.12 | -0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.05 |
| 2011 | #32 | Derek Sherrod | OFF | -0.46 | -0.85 | -0.19 | -0.58 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.14 |
| 2010 | #169 | Marshall Newhouse | OFF | -0.61 | -0.57 | -0.30 | -0.45 | — | -0.25 | -0.19 | -1.16 |
| 2017 | #33 | Kevin King | DEF | -0.43 | -0.18 | -0.64 | -0.49 | -0.19 | -0.57 | -0.36 | -1.23 |
| 2009 | #162 | Jamon Meredith | OFF | -0.87 | -0.65 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.32 |
| 2010 | #23 | Bryan Bulaga | OFF | +0.30 | +0.77 | -0.34 | +0.51 | -0.34 | -1.98 | -1.35 | -1.34 |
| 2012 | #51 | Jerel Worthy | DEF | -0.85 | -0.78 | -0.35 | -0.63 | — | -0.13 | -0.06 | -1.38 |
| 2007 | #16 | Justin Harrell | DEF | -0.63 | -0.79 | — | -0.67 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.42 |
| 2017 | #93 | Montravius Adams | DEF | -0.31 | -0.88 | -1.13 | -0.64 | -0.41 | -0.21 | -0.09 | -1.44 |
| 2015 | #210 | Christian Ringo | DEF | -0.89 | -0.65 | -0.98 | -0.55 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.44 |
| 2013 | #122 | J.C. Tretter | OFF | -0.71 | -0.91 | -0.81 | -0.74 | -0.53 | -0.22 | -0.14 | -1.63 |
| 2006 | #5 | A.J. Hawk | DEF | +1.02 | +1.42 | -0.78 | +0.34 | -1.28 | -1.86 | -1.76 | -1.73 |
| 2013 | #26 | Datone Jones | DEF | -0.18 | -1.12 | -0.80 | -0.76 | -1.11 | -0.36 | -0.16 | -1.89 |
| 2006 | #115 | Will Blackmon | DEF | -1.03 | -1.26 | — | -1.01 | — | -0.26 | -0.22 | -2.40 |
| 2007 | #119 | Allen Barbre | OFF | -1.21 | -1.31 | — | -1.12 | — | -0.31 | -0.22 | -2.65 |
| 2008 | #150 | Breno Giacomini | OFF | -1.51 | -1.23 | — | -1.14 | — | -0.17 | -0.12 | -2.66 |
| 2012 | #62 | Casey Hayward | DEF | -0.84 | -1.06 | -0.91 | -1.10 | -1.39 | -0.72 | -0.56 | -2.83 |
| 2011 | #233 | Lawrence Guy | DEF | -2.35 | -1.77 | — | -1.94 | — | -0.30 | -0.23 | -4.26 |
| 2007 | #243 | Clark Harris | OFF | -2.85 | -2.22 | — | -2.31 | — | -0.45 | -0.41 | -5.28 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.