Rick Spielman
MIN · Composite skill θ = -0.03 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.77 to +0.70
Composite θ
-0.03
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.77–+0.70
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
46%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Average
directional only
Evidence: 104 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 2012–2021 · 91% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.33
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2012–2021MIN
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | #22 | Justin Jefferson | OFF | +7.28 |
| 2012 | #29 | Harrison Smith | DEF | +4.37 |
| 2015 | #88 | Danielle Hunter | DEF | +4.27 |
| 2018 | #62 | Brian O'Neill | OFF | +3.31 |
| 2017 | #41 | Dalvin Cook | OFF | +3.30 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | #23 | Laquon Treadwell | OFF | -4.20 |
| 2018 | #30 | Mike Hughes | DEF | -2.76 |
| 2014 | #32 | Teddy Bridgewater | OFF | -2.32 |
| 2015 | #143 | MyCole Pruitt | OFF | -2.29 |
| 2021 | #86 | Wyatt Davis | OFF | -1.68 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 104 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2020 | #22 | Justin Jefferson | OFF | +0.88 | +1.35 | +1.74 | +2.10 | +1.80 | +3.91 | +4.09 | +7.28 |
| 2012 | #29 | Harrison Smith | DEF | +2.05 | +3.11 | +1.77 | +1.71 | +0.46 | +2.44 | -0.51 | +4.37 |
| 2015 | #88 | Danielle Hunter | DEF | +0.85 | +0.97 | +1.66 | +1.58 | +1.16 | +3.79 | -0.30 | +4.27 |
| 2018 | #62 | Brian O'Neill | OFF | +1.45 | +1.99 | +1.76 | +1.69 | +0.00 | +1.71 | -0.25 | +3.31 |
| 2017 | #41 | Dalvin Cook | OFF | +0.13 | +0.79 | +1.07 | +1.27 | +0.78 | +3.62 | -0.38 | +3.30 |
| 2013 | #25 | Xavier Rhodes | DEF | +0.46 | +0.95 | +0.80 | +0.47 | +0.51 | +2.25 | +1.40 | +3.05 |
| 2012 | #175 | Blair Walsh | ST | +1.07 | +0.01 | +1.16 | +0.67 | +0.13 | +1.07 | +2.13 | +2.75 |
| 2015 | #45 | Eric Kendricks | DEF | +0.54 | +1.27 | +1.88 | +1.02 | -0.14 | -0.38 | +1.09 | +2.03 |
| 2014 | #220 | Shamar Stephen | DEF | +0.97 | +0.79 | +1.25 | +0.66 | +0.61 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.59 |
| 2021 | #125 | Camryn Bynum | DEF | +0.75 | +1.04 | +1.02 | +0.58 | +0.64 | -0.06 | -0.04 | +1.50 |
| 2020 | #205 | Josh Metellus | DEF | +1.50 | +0.78 | +1.08 | +0.57 | +0.03 | -0.05 | -0.04 | +1.38 |
| 2015 | #146 | Stefon Diggs | OFF | -0.18 | +0.38 | +0.77 | +0.57 | +1.86 | -0.48 | -0.31 | +1.15 |
| 2020 | #176 | K.J. Osborn | OFF | +0.76 | +0.53 | +1.17 | +0.33 | -0.20 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.86 |
| 2017 | #120 | Ben Gedeon | DEF | +0.14 | +0.17 | -0.28 | +0.28 | +1.42 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.82 |
| 2013 | #155 | Jeff Locke | ST | +0.99 | +0.13 | — | +0.43 | +0.07 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.79 |
| 2017 | #220 | Ifeadi Odenigbo | DEF | +0.05 | +0.10 | +0.71 | +0.13 | +0.71 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.68 |
| 2012 | #210 | Audie Cole | DEF | +0.88 | +0.04 | +0.72 | +0.17 | +0.12 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.67 |
| 2020 | #117 | D.J. Wonnum | DEF | +0.50 | +0.26 | +1.24 | +0.29 | -0.33 | -0.09 | -0.04 | +0.59 |
| 2015 | #110 | T.J. Clemmings | OFF | +0.04 | +0.30 | +0.81 | +0.18 | +0.27 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.58 |
| 2012 | #139 | Robert Blanton | DEF | +0.69 | +0.08 | +0.99 | +0.11 | -0.36 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.44 |
| 2020 | #203 | Blake Brandel | OFF | +0.93 | +0.23 | -0.12 | +0.20 | -0.02 | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.39 |
| 2014 | #9 | Anthony Barr | DEF | +0.18 | +0.58 | +0.57 | +0.53 | -0.31 | +1.24 | -1.60 | +0.37 |
| 2012 | #118 | Jarius Wright | OFF | +0.70 | -0.37 | -0.25 | +0.17 | +0.71 | -0.14 | -0.08 | +0.35 |
| 2019 | #102 | Alexander Mattison | OFF | +0.77 | -0.05 | +0.18 | +0.30 | -0.03 | -0.16 | -0.08 | +0.32 |
| 2017 | #70 | Pat Elflein | OFF | -0.02 | +0.29 | +0.41 | +0.20 | +0.07 | -0.14 | -0.07 | +0.24 |
| 2020 | #89 | Cameron Dantzler | DEF | -0.05 | +0.18 | -0.09 | +0.03 | +0.48 | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.20 |
| 2013 | #213 | Michael Mauti | DEF | +0.04 | -0.17 | +0.76 | -0.06 | +0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 2019 | #247 | Olabisi Johnson | OFF | +0.26 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.04 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.14 |
| 2017 | #180 | Danny Isidora | OFF | -0.09 | -0.33 | +0.41 | -0.16 | +0.45 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.12 |
| 2013 | #120 | Gerald Hodges | DEF | -0.21 | -0.25 | +0.08 | -0.11 | +0.60 | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.07 |
| 2019 | #217 | Kris Boyd | DEF | +0.63 | -0.23 | +0.32 | -0.05 | -0.24 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.06 |
| 2014 | #182 | Antone Exum | DEF | -0.06 | -0.28 | -0.07 | -0.11 | +0.55 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.05 |
| 2019 | #190 | Armon Watts | DEF | +0.16 | -0.14 | +0.57 | -0.04 | -0.26 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.02 |
| 2019 | #250 | Austin Cutting | ST | +0.07 | +0.14 | -0.97 | +0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| 2021 | #23 | Christian Darrisaw | OFF | +0.16 | +0.34 | -0.09 | +0.19 | -0.11 | -0.30 | -0.13 | -0.04 |
| 2012 | #4 | Matt Kalil | OFF | +0.23 | +0.20 | +0.35 | -0.26 | -0.99 | +0.76 | -0.22 | -0.09 |
| 2016 | #227 | Stephen Weatherly | DEF | +0.57 | -0.19 | +0.44 | -0.01 | -0.69 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.11 |
| 2017 | #109 | Jaleel Johnson | DEF | +0.14 | -0.17 | -0.10 | -0.10 | +0.12 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -0.11 |
| 2019 | #18 | Garrett Bradbury | OFF | +0.51 | +0.85 | +0.50 | +0.25 | -0.67 | -0.74 | -0.38 | -0.15 |
| 2014 | #225 | Jabari Price | DEF | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.29 | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2016 | #188 | David Morgan | OFF | +0.32 | +0.09 | -0.29 | +0.10 | -0.58 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2020 | #58 | Ezra Cleveland | OFF | +0.07 | +0.31 | +0.29 | +0.02 | -0.55 | -0.24 | -0.11 | -0.22 |
| 2018 | #157 | Tyler Conklin | OFF | +0.23 | -0.30 | +0.27 | -0.17 | -0.15 | -0.18 | -0.09 | -0.23 |
| 2012 | #219 | Trevor Guyton | DEF | -0.40 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.24 |
| 2020 | #244 | Nate Stanley | OFF | -0.23 | -0.02 | -0.32 | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.25 |
| 2016 | #160 | Kentrell Brothers | DEF | +0.55 | -0.30 | -0.34 | -0.10 | -0.39 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| 2021 | #157 | Ihmir Smith-Marsette | OFF | -0.35 | -0.17 | +0.11 | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| 2013 | #229 | Everett Dawkins | DEF | -0.40 | -0.05 | -0.43 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.31 |
| 2013 | #23 | Sharrif Floyd | DEF | +0.05 | -0.16 | +0.00 | -0.15 | -0.43 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.39 |
| 2020 | #169 | Harrison Hand | DEF | -0.14 | -0.30 | -0.69 | -0.15 | +0.15 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 2015 | #228 | Austin Shepherd | OFF | -0.13 | -0.30 | -0.46 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 2014 | #223 | Brandon Watts | DEF | -0.31 | -0.18 | -0.54 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2021 | #134 | Janarius Robinson | DEF | -0.60 | -0.24 | -0.04 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2017 | #245 | Jack Tocho | DEF | -0.48 | -0.14 | -0.59 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2020 | #130 | James Lynch | DEF | -0.07 | -0.48 | -0.48 | -0.25 | +0.01 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.51 |
| 2014 | #184 | Kendall James | DEF | -0.51 | -0.16 | -0.62 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2021 | #90 | Patrick Jones II | DEF | +0.47 | -0.40 | +0.01 | -0.13 | -0.88 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.52 |
| 2012 | #128 | Rhett Ellison | OFF | +0.55 | +0.42 | +0.59 | -0.52 | -1.34 | -0.16 | -0.09 | -0.54 |
| 2015 | #193 | B.J. Dubose | DEF | -0.51 | -0.14 | -0.69 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2017 | #219 | Stacy Coley | OFF | -0.36 | -0.16 | -0.63 | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2013 | #214 | Travis Bond | OFF | -0.45 | -0.28 | -0.46 | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 2015 | #232 | Edmond Robinson | DEF | -0.42 | -0.48 | +0.11 | -0.42 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.58 |
| 2012 | #134 | Greg Childs | OFF | -0.56 | -0.21 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 2016 | #244 | Jayron Kearse | DEF | +0.44 | -0.52 | -0.07 | -0.37 | -0.60 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.59 |
| 2018 | #225 | Devante Downs | DEF | -0.30 | -0.26 | -0.55 | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.59 |
| 2019 | #50 | Irv Smith Jr. | OFF | -0.37 | -0.52 | -0.30 | -0.21 | +0.14 | -0.24 | -0.10 | -0.59 |
| 2013 | #196 | Jeff Baca | OFF | -0.38 | -0.31 | -0.52 | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 2017 | #201 | Bucky Hodges | OFF | -0.60 | -0.24 | -1.10 | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 2021 | #168 | Zach Davidson | OFF | -0.77 | -0.40 | -0.35 | -0.09 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.64 |
| 2018 | #218 | Ade Aruna | DEF | -0.54 | -0.17 | -0.83 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 2020 | #225 | Kenny Willekes | DEF | -0.44 | -0.22 | -0.88 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 2020 | #132 | Troy Dye | DEF | +0.40 | -0.44 | -0.45 | -0.28 | -0.55 | -0.11 | -0.07 | -0.66 |
| 2018 | #213 | Colby Gossett | OFF | -0.57 | -0.39 | -0.16 | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| 2019 | #193 | Oli Udoh | OFF | +0.01 | -0.30 | -0.56 | -0.31 | -0.36 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.69 |
| 2017 | #232 | Elijah Lee | DEF | -0.78 | -0.40 | +0.26 | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.71 |
| 2019 | #239 | Dillon Mitchell | OFF | -0.53 | -0.18 | -0.83 | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 2016 | #180 | Moritz Boehringer | OFF | -0.55 | -0.19 | -0.84 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.73 |
| 2017 | #170 | Rodney Adams | OFF | -0.60 | -0.24 | -0.63 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.73 |
| 2021 | #119 | Kene Nwangwu | OFF | +0.04 | -0.41 | -0.71 | -0.29 | -0.36 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.76 |
| 2015 | #185 | Tyrus Thompson | OFF | -0.54 | -0.36 | -0.67 | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.79 |
| 2020 | #249 | Brian Cole II | DEF | -0.56 | -0.21 | -1.18 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.81 |
| 2014 | #145 | David Yankey | OFF | -0.60 | -0.42 | -0.52 | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.83 |
| 2014 | #72 | Scott Crichton | DEF | -0.28 | -0.45 | -0.96 | -0.26 | -0.37 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 2020 | #253 | Kyle Hinton | OFF | -0.71 | -0.56 | -0.11 | -0.45 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.95 |
| 2021 | #199 | Jaylen Twyman | DEF | -0.66 | -0.28 | -1.33 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.99 |
| 2016 | #54 | Mackensie Alexander | DEF | +0.40 | -0.55 | -0.24 | -0.42 | -0.96 | -0.22 | -0.14 | -1.00 |
| 2015 | #11 | Trae Waynes | DEF | +0.22 | +0.01 | -0.04 | -0.52 | -0.89 | -0.48 | -0.33 | -1.05 |
| 2013 | #29 | Cordarrelle Patterson | OFF | -0.93 | -1.47 | -1.31 | -1.28 | -0.13 | -1.22 | +2.91 | -1.10 |
| 2019 | #114 | Dru Samia | OFF | -0.44 | -0.50 | -1.13 | -0.37 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.11 |
| 2016 | #121 | Willie Beavers | OFF | -0.66 | -0.52 | -1.04 | -0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.15 |
| 2019 | #191 | Marcus Epps | DEF | -0.83 | -0.62 | -0.26 | -0.52 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | -1.16 |
| 2019 | #162 | Cameron Smith | DEF | -0.64 | -0.39 | -1.32 | -0.34 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.16 |
| 2012 | #66 | Josh Robinson | DEF | -0.26 | -0.42 | -0.15 | -0.47 | -1.16 | -0.20 | -0.14 | -1.27 |
| 2018 | #167 | Daniel Carlson | ST | -1.21 | -0.49 | -0.39 | -0.44 | — | -0.15 | -0.13 | -1.28 |
| 2021 | #66 | Kellen Mond | OFF | -0.66 | -0.48 | -1.42 | -0.43 | — | -0.09 | -0.01 | -1.33 |
| 2014 | #96 | Jerick McKinnon | OFF | -0.38 | -0.85 | -0.54 | -0.31 | -0.27 | -0.61 | -0.37 | -1.37 |
| 2020 | #31 | Jeff Gladney | DEF | -0.76 | -0.49 | -1.36 | -0.54 | -0.22 | -0.18 | -0.10 | -1.39 |
| 2021 | #78 | Chazz Surratt | DEF | -0.83 | -0.69 | -0.75 | -0.56 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | -1.40 |
| 2018 | #102 | Jalyn Holmes | DEF | -0.79 | -0.71 | -0.65 | -0.63 | -0.52 | -0.21 | -0.09 | -1.45 |
| 2021 | #86 | Wyatt Davis | OFF | -0.80 | -0.76 | -1.43 | -0.60 | — | -0.11 | -0.05 | -1.68 |
| 2015 | #143 | MyCole Pruitt | OFF | -1.28 | -1.15 | -0.96 | -0.90 | — | -0.34 | -0.19 | -2.29 |
| 2014 | #32 | Teddy Bridgewater | OFF | -1.44 | -1.12 | -0.88 | -0.94 | +0.31 | -1.42 | -0.28 | -2.32 |
| 2018 | #30 | Mike Hughes | DEF | -1.13 | -1.21 | -1.19 | -1.03 | -1.00 | -0.69 | -0.43 | -2.76 |
| 2016 | #23 | Laquon Treadwell | OFF | -0.85 | -1.37 | -1.46 | -1.51 | -1.70 | -1.78 | -0.96 | -4.20 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.