John Lynch
SF · Composite skill θ = +0.45 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.03 to +1.94
Composite θ
+0.45
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-1.03–+1.94
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
72%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
directional only
Evidence: 77 mapped picks across 9 draft classes, 2017–2025 · 60% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.58
- maturity discount
- -0.30
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2017–2025SF
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | #70 | Fred Warner | DEF | +10.61 |
| 2017 | #146 | George Kittle | OFF | +10.48 |
| 2019 | #2 | Nick Bosa | DEF | +4.68 |
| 2022 | #262 | Brock Purdy | OFF | +4.37 |
| 2021 | #180 | Talanoa Hufanga | DEF | +3.37 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | #3 | Solomon Thomas | DEF | -3.86 |
| 2021 | #3 | Trey Lance | OFF | -2.57 |
| 2018 | #44 | Dante Pettis | OFF | -2.31 |
| 2018 | #9 | Mike McGlinchey | OFF | -1.80 |
| 2019 | #67 | Jalen Hurd | OFF | -1.70 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 77 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2018 | #70 | Fred Warner | DEF | +1.33 | +2.17 | +2.35 | +2.98 | +2.06 | +3.95 | +8.33 | +10.61 |
| 2017 | #146 | George Kittle | OFF | +1.47 | +2.14 | +2.26 | +2.39 | +3.12 | +7.38 | +4.16 | +10.48 |
| 2019 | #2 | Nick Bosa | DEF | +0.37 | +0.46 | +0.01 | +0.80 | +1.89 | +4.50 | +1.62 | +4.68 |
| 2022 | #262 | Brock Purdy | OFF | +1.11 | +1.36 | +1.69 | +2.07 | +2.81 | +1.08 | +0.00 | +4.37 |
| 2021 | #180 | Talanoa Hufanga | DEF | +0.48 | +0.69 | +0.54 | +0.63 | +1.78 | +1.05 | +2.12 | +3.37 |
| 2019 | #36 | Deebo Samuel | OFF | +0.48 | +0.86 | +0.46 | +1.20 | +1.63 | +0.58 | +1.92 | +3.27 |
| 2021 | #172 | Deommodore Lenoir | DEF | +1.19 | +1.42 | +1.80 | +0.75 | +0.31 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.97 |
| 2020 | #25 | Brandon Aiyuk | OFF | +0.49 | +0.90 | +0.92 | +0.95 | +1.01 | -0.25 | -0.11 | +1.57 |
| 2023 | #216 | Dee Winters | DEF | +0.73 | +0.67 | +0.80 | +0.47 | +0.66 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.29 |
| 2020 | #217 | Jauan Jennings | OFF | +1.03 | +0.48 | +0.69 | +0.62 | +0.51 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +1.26 |
| 2022 | #134 | Spencer Burford | OFF | +0.70 | +0.58 | +0.30 | +0.44 | +1.00 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.22 |
| 2018 | #184 | Marcell Harris | DEF | +0.65 | +0.30 | +0.72 | +0.45 | +0.74 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.13 |
| 2022 | #220 | Kalia Davis | DEF | +0.34 | +0.36 | +0.05 | +0.32 | +1.43 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.11 |
| 2019 | #148 | Dre Greenlaw | DEF | +0.36 | +0.78 | +0.41 | +0.65 | +0.75 | -0.13 | -0.09 | +1.11 |
| 2020 | #153 | Colton McKivitz | OFF | +0.98 | +0.84 | +0.62 | +0.57 | -0.19 | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.93 |
| 2024 | #86 | Dominick Puni | OFF | +0.33 | +0.58 | +0.76 | +0.38 | +0.30 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.88 |
| 2024 | #124 | Malik Mustapha | DEF | +0.30 | +0.55 | +0.44 | +0.32 | +0.56 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.86 |
| 2025 | #227 | Kurtis Rourke | OFF | +0.30 | +0.45 | +0.79 | +0.30 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.81 |
| 2017 | #198 | D.J. Jones | DEF | +0.11 | +0.37 | +0.13 | +0.19 | +1.10 | -0.13 | -0.07 | +0.74 |
| 2024 | #251 | Tatum Bethune | DEF | +0.40 | +0.34 | +0.58 | +0.24 | +0.37 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.74 |
| 2025 | #249 | Connor Colby | OFF | +0.31 | +0.26 | +0.89 | +0.20 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.70 |
| 2025 | #160 | Marques Sigle | ST | +0.21 | +0.33 | +0.43 | +0.25 | +0.41 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.65 |
| 2021 | #194 | Elijah Mitchell | OFF | -0.04 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +1.03 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.59 |
| 2023 | #87 | Ji'Ayir Brown | DEF | +0.56 | +0.55 | +0.46 | +0.26 | -0.21 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.51 |
| 2025 | #252 | Junior Bergen | OFF | +0.02 | +0.30 | +0.47 | +0.17 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.43 |
| 2021 | #48 | Aaron Banks | OFF | +0.19 | +0.23 | -0.12 | +0.14 | +0.57 | -0.19 | -0.08 | +0.32 |
| 2023 | #99 | Jake Moody | ST | +0.18 | +0.06 | +0.13 | +0.23 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.32 |
| 2024 | #64 | Renardo Green | DEF | +0.19 | +0.29 | +0.28 | +0.12 | +0.03 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 2024 | #135 | Jacob Cowing | OFF | +0.20 | +0.13 | +0.29 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.29 |
| 2018 | #240 | Richie James | OFF | +0.27 | -0.05 | +0.37 | -0.01 | +0.07 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.20 |
| 2021 | #155 | Jaylon Moore | OFF | +0.57 | -0.23 | -0.39 | -0.04 | +0.52 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.18 |
| 2023 | #253 | Ronnie Bell | OFF | +0.37 | +0.06 | +0.36 | +0.05 | -0.23 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.16 |
| 2019 | #110 | Mitch Wishnowsky | ST | +1.01 | -0.47 | +0.93 | +0.05 | -0.43 | -0.18 | -0.13 | +0.15 |
| 2024 | #129 | Isaac Guerendo | OFF | +0.35 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.09 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.15 |
| 2025 | #113 | CJ West | DEF | +0.08 | +0.05 | +0.18 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 |
| 2022 | #221 | Tariq Castro-Fields | DEF | -0.29 | +0.03 | +0.39 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.09 |
| 2023 | #255 | Jalen Graham | DEF | +0.10 | +0.04 | -0.15 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.05 |
| 2025 | #138 | Jordan Watkins | OFF | -0.09 | +0.11 | -0.03 | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 2025 | #147 | Jordan James | OFF | -0.13 | +0.18 | -0.08 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 2024 | #215 | Jarrett Kingston | OFF | -0.20 | -0.07 | +0.39 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 2023 | #247 | Brayden Willis | OFF | +0.23 | -0.01 | -0.22 | +0.22 | -0.27 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2022 | #172 | Samuel Womack | DEF | +0.00 | -0.18 | -0.05 | -0.05 | +0.11 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| 2024 | #31 | Ricky Pearsall | OFF | -0.23 | -0.16 | -0.33 | -0.17 | +0.35 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.19 |
| 2025 | #100 | Upton Stout | DEF | +0.08 | +0.10 | +0.18 | +0.07 | -0.75 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2019 | #183 | Justin Skule | OFF | -0.30 | -0.48 | +0.00 | -0.37 | +0.49 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.28 |
| 2023 | #155 | Darrell Luter | DEF | +0.21 | -0.03 | -0.18 | +0.03 | -0.62 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2021 | #102 | Ambry Thomas | DEF | +0.13 | -0.22 | -0.96 | -0.14 | +0.22 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.37 |
| 2018 | #223 | Jullian Taylor | DEF | -0.24 | -0.17 | -0.56 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 2023 | #173 | Robert Beal | DEF | +0.12 | -0.15 | -0.21 | -0.07 | -0.59 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2022 | #187 | Nick Zakelj | OFF | +0.16 | -0.31 | -0.65 | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.45 |
| 2017 | #104 | C.J. Beathard | OFF | -0.38 | -0.24 | -0.33 | -0.18 | +0.01 | -0.10 | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| 2017 | #202 | Pita Taumoepenu | DEF | -0.49 | -0.27 | +0.08 | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.49 |
| 2017 | #229 | Adrian Colbert | DEF | -0.60 | -0.36 | +0.18 | -0.40 | +0.09 | -0.08 | -0.07 | -0.49 |
| 2025 | #75 | Nick Martin | DEF | -0.30 | -0.19 | -0.48 | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 2023 | #101 | Cameron Latu | OFF | -0.63 | -0.30 | -0.58 | -0.01 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2022 | #93 | Tyrion Davis-Price | OFF | -0.42 | -0.19 | -0.54 | -0.20 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.62 |
| 2019 | #176 | Kaden Smith | OFF | -0.70 | -0.33 | -0.77 | -0.03 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.66 |
| 2019 | #198 | Tim Harris | DEF | -0.56 | -0.25 | -0.73 | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.70 |
| 2020 | #190 | Charlie Woerner | OFF | +0.68 | -0.31 | +0.48 | -0.20 | -1.69 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.71 |
| 2018 | #95 | Tarvarius Moore | DEF | +0.26 | -0.46 | -0.11 | -0.33 | -0.68 | -0.17 | -0.11 | -0.74 |
| 2025 | #43 | Alfred Collins | DEF | -0.12 | -0.25 | -0.02 | -0.20 | -1.27 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.87 |
| 2017 | #177 | Trent Taylor | OFF | -0.15 | -0.70 | -0.25 | -0.47 | -0.47 | -0.14 | -0.08 | -0.95 |
| 2017 | #31 | Reuben Foster | DEF | -0.76 | -0.46 | -1.30 | -0.46 | +0.33 | -0.15 | -0.08 | -1.02 |
| 2022 | #105 | Danny Gray | OFF | -0.39 | -0.36 | -1.30 | -0.32 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.04 |
| 2025 | #11 | Mykel Williams | DEF | -0.51 | -0.46 | -0.45 | -0.59 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -1.09 |
| 2020 | #14 | Javon Kinlaw | DEF | -0.47 | -0.53 | -0.81 | -0.50 | +0.01 | -0.40 | -0.16 | -1.13 |
| 2022 | #61 | Drake Jackson | DEF | -0.40 | -0.64 | -0.74 | -0.43 | -0.53 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -1.14 |
| 2021 | #88 | Trey Sermon | OFF | -0.73 | -0.45 | -0.54 | -0.47 | — | -0.14 | -0.06 | -1.15 |
| 2017 | #121 | Joe Williams | OFF | -0.74 | -0.30 | -1.31 | -0.32 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.15 |
| 2017 | #66 | Ahkello Witherspoon | DEF | -0.58 | -0.38 | -0.35 | -0.60 | -0.52 | -0.53 | -0.35 | -1.44 |
| 2018 | #128 | Kentavius Street | DEF | -0.48 | -0.77 | -0.93 | -0.61 | -0.65 | -0.16 | -0.07 | -1.48 |
| 2018 | #142 | D.J. Reed | DEF | -0.56 | -0.82 | -0.48 | -0.67 | -1.15 | -0.17 | -0.12 | -1.68 |
| 2019 | #67 | Jalen Hurd | OFF | -0.93 | -0.60 | -1.72 | -0.53 | — | -0.11 | -0.05 | -1.70 |
| 2018 | #9 | Mike McGlinchey | OFF | -0.21 | -0.03 | +0.14 | -0.34 | -1.01 | -1.38 | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| 2018 | #44 | Dante Pettis | OFF | -0.94 | -0.92 | -1.16 | -0.95 | -0.72 | -0.64 | -0.31 | -2.31 |
| 2021 | #3 | Trey Lance | OFF | -0.86 | -1.22 | -1.07 | -1.32 | — | -0.34 | -0.06 | -2.57 |
| 2017 | #3 | Solomon Thomas | DEF | -0.92 | -1.29 | -1.04 | -1.53 | -1.27 | -1.76 | -1.00 | -3.86 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.