Darren Mougey
NYJ · Composite skill θ = -0.01 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.87 to +1.84
Evidence: 7 mapped picks across 1 draft classes, 2025–2025 · 13% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.01
- maturity discount
- +0.09
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2025–2025NYJHired Jan 2025 from Eagles
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | #162 | Francisco Mauigoa | DEF | +0.35 |
| 2025 | #176 | Tyler Baron | DEF | +0.33 |
| 2025 | #130 | Malachi Moore | ST | +0.17 |
| 2025 | #110 | Arian Smith | OFF | +0.15 |
| 2025 | #42 | Mason Taylor | OFF | -0.09 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | #7 | Armand Membou | OFF | -1.61 |
| 2025 | #73 | Azareye'h Thomas | DEF | -0.10 |
| 2025 | #42 | Mason Taylor | OFF | -0.09 |
| 2025 | #110 | Arian Smith | OFF | +0.15 |
| 2025 | #130 | Malachi Moore | ST | +0.17 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 7 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2025 | #162 | Francisco Mauigoa | DEF | +0.06 | +0.29 | +0.35 | +0.13 | +0.12 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.35 |
| 2025 | #176 | Tyler Baron | DEF | +0.04 | +0.20 | +0.33 | +0.14 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.33 |
| 2025 | #130 | Malachi Moore | ST | +0.19 | +0.46 | +0.70 | +0.24 | -0.77 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| 2025 | #110 | Arian Smith | OFF | +0.13 | +0.17 | +0.18 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 |
| 2025 | #42 | Mason Taylor | OFF | -0.26 | -0.05 | -0.26 | +0.01 | +0.24 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2025 | #73 | Azareye'h Thomas | DEF | -0.10 | +0.01 | -0.13 | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2025 | #7 | Armand Membou | OFF | -0.38 | -0.56 | -0.21 | -0.77 | -1.60 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.61 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.