Charley Casserly
HOU · Composite skill θ = -0.07 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.68 to +0.55
Evidence: 37 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 2002–2005 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.23
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2002–2005HOUOriginal Texans GM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | #50 | Chester Pitts | OFF | +2.19 |
| 2003 | #101 | Domanick Williams | OFF | +1.97 |
| 2003 | #3 | Andre Johnson | OFF | +1.88 |
| 2005 | #114 | Jerome Mathis | OFF | +1.51 |
| 2005 | #188 | C.C. Brown | DEF | +1.03 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | #27 | Jason Babin | DEF | -4.16 |
| 2002 | #190 | Howard Green | DEF | -2.06 |
| 2002 | #33 | Jabar Gaffney | OFF | -1.94 |
| 2002 | #1 | David Carr | OFF | -1.59 |
| 2002 | #229 | Stylez G. White | DEF | -1.51 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 37 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2002 | #50 | Chester Pitts | OFF | +1.20 | +1.81 | — | +0.90 | — | -0.26 | -0.16 | +2.19 |
| 2003 | #101 | Domanick Williams | OFF | +0.41 | +0.85 | — | +1.36 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.97 |
| 2003 | #3 | Andre Johnson | OFF | +1.07 | +1.73 | -1.35 | +1.89 | -1.33 | +2.07 | +0.16 | +1.88 |
| 2005 | #114 | Jerome Mathis | OFF | -0.10 | -0.17 | — | +0.04 | — | +1.08 | +2.14 | +1.51 |
| 2005 | #188 | C.C. Brown | DEF | +0.45 | +0.93 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +1.03 |
| 2004 | #122 | Glenn Earl | DEF | +0.40 | +0.70 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.92 |
| 2002 | #99 | Jonathan Wells | OFF | +0.89 | +0.35 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.91 |
| 2002 | #173 | Demarcus Faggins | DEF | +1.01 | +0.44 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.90 |
| 2002 | #66 | Fred Weary | OFF | +0.66 | +0.49 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.83 |
| 2003 | #67 | Antwan Peek | DEF | +0.49 | +0.21 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.41 |
| 2004 | #248 | B.J. Symons | OFF | +0.08 | +0.27 | — | +0.21 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.38 |
| 2002 | #153 | Ramon Walker | DEF | +0.46 | -0.04 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.35 |
| 2002 | #136 | Jarrod Baxter | OFF | +0.12 | +0.27 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 2002 | #261 | Ahmad Miller | DEF | -0.20 | +0.13 | — | +0.14 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| 2004 | #200 | Charlie Anderson | DEF | +0.64 | -0.28 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.07 |
| 2003 | #214 | Keith Wright | DEF | -0.28 | +0.06 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 2005 | #227 | Kenneth Pettway | DEF | -0.28 | +0.06 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 2003 | #217 | Curry Burns | DEF | -0.27 | +0.04 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2003 | #75 | Seth Wand | OFF | +0.25 | -0.17 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.07 |
| 2003 | #192 | Drew Henson | OFF | -0.20 | +0.02 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 2004 | #211 | Sloan Thomas | OFF | -0.30 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2003 | #88 | Dave Ragone | OFF | -0.21 | -0.01 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 2005 | #151 | Drew Hodgdon | OFF | -0.11 | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2005 | #16 | Travis Johnson | DEF | +0.16 | +0.06 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.16 |
| 2004 | #175 | Jammal Lord | DEF | -0.35 | -0.04 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2004 | #170 | Vontez Duff | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2003 | #233 | Chance Pearce | OFF | -0.27 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.25 |
| 2004 | #210 | Raheem Orr | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2002 | #83 | Charles Hill | DEF | -0.20 | -0.25 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2005 | #73 | Vernand Morency | OFF | -0.36 | -0.25 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.53 |
| 2003 | #41 | Bennie Joppru | OFF | -0.80 | -0.56 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.93 |
| 2004 | #10 | Dunta Robinson | DEF | -0.02 | +0.30 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.82 | -0.69 | -1.20 |
| 2002 | #229 | Stylez G. White | DEF | -1.08 | -0.64 | — | -0.62 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.51 |
| 2002 | #1 | David Carr | OFF | -0.05 | -0.09 | — | -0.66 | — | -1.31 | -0.41 | -1.59 |
| 2002 | #33 | Jabar Gaffney | OFF | -0.53 | -0.31 | — | -0.91 | — | -0.76 | -0.46 | -1.94 |
| 2002 | #190 | Howard Green | DEF | -1.37 | -0.89 | — | -0.88 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -2.06 |
| 2004 | #27 | Jason Babin | DEF | -1.42 | -1.46 | — | -1.57 | — | -1.26 | -1.03 | -4.16 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.