Russ Thomas
DET · Composite skill θ = -0.10 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.79 to +0.59
Evidence: 65 mapped picks across 9 draft classes, 1980–1988 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.02
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1988DETGM 1967-1988; long tenure ended before Lions front office overhaul
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | #29 | Chris Spielman | DEF | +5.30 |
| 1980 | #1 | Billy Sims | OFF | +2.60 |
| 1983 | #67 | Mike Cofer | DEF | +2.45 |
| 1987 | #63 | Jerry Ball | DEF | +2.36 |
| 1983 | #121 | Steve Mott | OFF | +2.22 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | #6 | Lomas Brown | OFF | -5.34 |
| 1980 | #166 | Eddie Murray | ST | -3.42 |
| 1988 | #32 | Pat Carter | OFF | -3.08 |
| 1987 | #175 | Dan Saleaumua | DEF | -2.82 |
| 1987 | #7 | Reggie Rogers | DEF | -2.36 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 65 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1988 | #29 | Chris Spielman | DEF | +1.00 | +1.79 | — | +1.71 | — | +2.66 | +1.74 | +5.30 |
| 1980 | #1 | Billy Sims | OFF | +0.32 | +0.29 | — | +0.94 | — | +2.93 | -0.21 | +2.60 |
| 1983 | #67 | Mike Cofer | DEF | +1.09 | +1.46 | — | +1.00 | — | +0.63 | -0.28 | +2.45 |
| 1987 | #63 | Jerry Ball | DEF | -0.42 | +0.41 | — | +0.20 | — | +2.56 | +1.78 | +2.36 |
| 1983 | #121 | Steve Mott | OFF | +1.04 | +1.50 | — | +0.98 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +2.22 |
| 1982 | #96 | Bruce McNorton | DEF | +1.30 | +1.50 | — | +0.91 | — | -0.20 | -0.12 | +2.15 |
| 1980 | #140 | Chris Dieterich | OFF | +1.53 | +0.59 | — | +0.75 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +1.76 |
| 1988 | #111 | Eric Andolsek | OFF | +0.92 | +0.95 | — | +0.79 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.72 |
| 1983 | #115 | Demetrious Johnson | DEF | +0.89 | +0.78 | — | +0.70 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.52 |
| 1982 | #127 | William Graham | DEF | +0.88 | +0.85 | — | +0.64 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.47 |
| 1982 | #42 | Bobby Watkins | DEF | +0.72 | +0.73 | — | +0.69 | — | -0.16 | -0.09 | +1.28 |
| 1980 | #85 | Eric Hipple | OFF | +1.00 | +0.45 | — | +0.63 | — | -0.29 | -0.04 | +1.19 |
| 1983 | #181 | Mike Black | ST | +0.94 | +0.23 | — | +0.53 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.10 |
| 1981 | #72 | Don Greco | OFF | +0.30 | +0.43 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.77 |
| 1988 | #3 | Bennie Blades | DEF | +0.94 | +1.32 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.06 | -1.02 | +0.58 |
| 1986 | #92 | Devon Mitchell | DEF | +0.00 | +0.41 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| 1988 | #85 | William White | DEF | +0.40 | +0.78 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.33 | -0.24 | +0.37 |
| 1985 | #34 | Kevin Glover | OFF | +1.14 | +1.66 | — | +0.88 | — | -1.85 | -1.97 | +0.37 |
| 1986 | #29 | Garry James | OFF | +0.05 | +0.44 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.33 |
| 1981 | #46 | Curtis Green | DEF | +1.27 | -0.05 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.35 | -0.13 | +0.33 |
| 1984 | #62 | Eric Williams | DEF | +0.21 | +0.66 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.33 | -0.14 | +0.31 |
| 1983 | #40 | Rich Strenger | OFF | +0.29 | +0.04 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.26 |
| 1984 | #160 | John Witkowski | OFF | -0.03 | +0.10 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| 1984 | #47 | Pete Mandley | OFF | +0.57 | -0.15 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.16 | -0.07 | +0.02 |
| 1983 | #94 | August Curley | DEF | +0.17 | +0.00 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.02 |
| 1984 | #75 | Steve Baack | DEF | +0.63 | -0.32 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 1982 | #154 | Mike Machurek | OFF | -0.11 | +0.03 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 1988 | #142 | Carl Painter | OFF | +0.17 | -0.05 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 1987 | #148 | Danny Lockett | DEF | +0.15 | -0.16 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 1988 | #169 | Jeff James | OFF | -0.40 | -0.04 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1985 | #174 | Tony Staten | DEF | -0.44 | -0.08 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1980 | #120 | Tommie Ginn | OFF | -0.01 | -0.32 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1982 | #187 | Victor Simmons | OFF | -0.45 | -0.08 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1984 | #20 | David Lewis | OFF | -0.03 | -0.06 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.09 | -0.03 | -0.40 |
| 1981 | #99 | Tracy Porter | OFF | -0.20 | -0.31 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1982 | #175 | Phil Bates | OFF | -0.51 | -0.06 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1981 | #16 | Mark Nichols | OFF | +0.37 | -0.25 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.37 | -0.16 | -0.45 |
| 1984 | #106 | Dave D'Addio | OFF | -0.25 | -0.14 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1983 | #154 | Todd Brown | OFF | -0.50 | -0.13 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1981 | #129 | Larry Lee | OFF | +0.27 | -0.51 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.49 |
| 1981 | #155 | Sam Johnson | DEF | -0.55 | -0.18 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1984 | #178 | Jimmie Carter | DEF | -0.53 | -0.16 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1986 | #119 | Oscar Smith | OFF | -0.52 | -0.13 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1984 | #187 | Renwick Atkins | OFF | -0.44 | -0.25 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1985 | #118 | Joe McIntosh | OFF | -0.59 | -0.14 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1985 | #146 | Stan Short | OFF | -0.51 | -0.32 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 1987 | #92 | Garland Rivers | DEF | -0.62 | -0.27 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 1981 | #182 | Lee Spivey | OFF | -0.51 | -0.31 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 1980 | #111 | Mark Streeter | DEF | -0.68 | -0.31 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| 1986 | #12 | Chuck Long | OFF | -0.34 | -0.35 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.10 | -0.02 | -0.87 |
| 1984 | #74 | Ernest Anderson | OFF | -0.74 | -0.32 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 1988 | #58 | Ray Roundtree | OFF | -0.62 | -0.40 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 1982 | #69 | Steve Doig | DEF | -0.23 | -0.57 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.91 |
| 1985 | #90 | Kevin Hancock | DEF | -0.73 | -0.37 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 1985 | #62 | James Johnson | DEF | -0.57 | -0.50 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.97 |
| 1983 | #13 | James Jones | OFF | -0.08 | +0.50 | — | +0.01 | — | -1.63 | -0.85 | -1.02 |
| 1980 | #62 | Mike Friede | OFF | -0.73 | -0.49 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -1.12 |
| 1980 | #57 | Tom Turnure | OFF | +0.25 | -1.07 | — | -0.66 | — | -0.18 | -0.08 | -1.20 |
| 1986 | #69 | Joe Milinichik | OFF | -0.55 | -0.84 | — | -0.85 | — | -0.24 | -0.13 | -1.74 |
| 1982 | #15 | Jimmy Williams | DEF | -0.07 | +0.43 | — | -0.32 | — | -2.58 | -1.73 | -2.30 |
| 1987 | #7 | Reggie Rogers | DEF | -0.98 | -1.17 | — | -1.18 | — | -0.13 | -0.06 | -2.36 |
| 1987 | #175 | Dan Saleaumua | DEF | -1.30 | -1.36 | — | -1.35 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | -2.82 |
| 1988 | #32 | Pat Carter | OFF | -1.59 | -1.20 | — | -1.25 | — | -0.60 | -0.28 | -3.08 |
| 1980 | #166 | Eddie Murray | ST | -0.25 | -3.30 | — | -1.95 | — | +0.60 | +0.00 | -3.42 |
| 1985 | #6 | Lomas Brown | OFF | -0.18 | +0.51 | — | -0.17 | — | -3.97 | -6.70 | -5.34 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.