Mike Reinfeldt
TEN · Composite skill θ = +0.10 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.51 to +0.71
Evidence: 37 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 2007–2010 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.01
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2007–2010TEN
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #104 | Alterraun Verner | DEF | +2.55 |
| 2008 | #24 | Chris Johnson | OFF | +2.39 |
| 2007 | #19 | Michael Griffin | DEF | +1.65 |
| 2007 | #115 | Leroy Harris | OFF | +0.88 |
| 2007 | #204 | Jacob Ford | DEF | +0.80 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | #89 | Jared Cook | OFF | -3.12 |
| 2008 | #103 | William Hayes | DEF | -1.96 |
| 2009 | #30 | Kenny Britt | OFF | -1.35 |
| 2008 | #229 | Cary Williams | DEF | -1.17 |
| 2008 | #54 | Jason Jones | DEF | -0.91 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 37 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2010 | #104 | Alterraun Verner | DEF | +0.32 | +0.49 | +0.47 | +0.49 | +3.95 | -0.11 | -0.08 | +2.55 |
| 2008 | #24 | Chris Johnson | OFF | +0.30 | +0.97 | -0.44 | +1.33 | -0.81 | +2.20 | +1.49 | +2.39 |
| 2007 | #19 | Michael Griffin | DEF | +1.41 | +1.95 | -0.06 | +1.11 | -0.87 | +1.44 | -0.58 | +1.65 |
| 2007 | #115 | Leroy Harris | OFF | +0.86 | +0.43 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.88 |
| 2007 | #204 | Jacob Ford | DEF | +0.70 | +0.23 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.80 |
| 2010 | #16 | Derrick Morgan | DEF | +1.02 | +1.33 | +0.63 | +0.53 | -0.21 | -0.55 | -0.27 | +0.74 |
| 2010 | #77 | Damian Williams | OFF | +0.61 | +0.11 | +0.53 | +0.17 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.56 |
| 2010 | #222 | Marc Mariani | OFF | +0.41 | -0.37 | +0.71 | -0.23 | — | +1.06 | -0.02 | +0.54 |
| 2007 | #223 | Michael Otto | OFF | +0.77 | -0.33 | +0.83 | -0.07 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.33 |
| 2009 | #173 | Javon Ringer | OFF | +0.44 | -0.03 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.32 |
| 2009 | #130 | Gerald McRath | DEF | +0.35 | +0.07 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.28 |
| 2010 | #176 | Rusty Smith | OFF | -0.05 | +0.12 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.14 |
| 2008 | #126 | Lavelle Hawkins | OFF | +0.55 | -0.23 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.13 |
| 2009 | #203 | Jason McCourty | DEF | +0.48 | +0.90 | +0.46 | -0.09 | -0.30 | -0.28 | -0.30 | +0.13 |
| 2009 | #242 | Nick Schommer | DEF | -0.01 | +0.01 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.09 |
| 2009 | #94 | Ryan Mouton | DEF | +0.24 | -0.19 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| 2010 | #148 | Robert Johnson | DEF | -0.15 | -0.08 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2010 | #241 | David Howard | DEF | -0.33 | +0.02 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.13 |
| 2007 | #206 | Ryan Smith | DEF | -0.35 | -0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 2009 | #206 | Dominique Edison | OFF | -0.24 | -0.02 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2007 | #152 | Antonio Johnson | DEF | -0.46 | -0.27 | +0.74 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.21 |
| 2010 | #207 | Myron Rolle | DEF | -0.39 | -0.06 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2008 | #134 | Stanford Keglar | DEF | +0.01 | -0.24 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2007 | #188 | Joel Filani | OFF | -0.37 | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2007 | #128 | Chris Davis | OFF | -0.09 | -0.15 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2009 | #239 | Ryan Durand | OFF | -0.31 | -0.18 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2008 | #85 | Craig Stevens | OFF | +1.34 | +1.10 | -0.22 | -0.34 | -1.62 | -0.14 | -0.07 | -0.35 |
| 2009 | #62 | Sen'Derrick Marks | DEF | -0.11 | -0.23 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.14 | -0.07 | -0.54 |
| 2009 | #135 | Troy Kropog | OFF | -0.36 | -0.36 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 2007 | #80 | Paul Williams | OFF | -0.52 | -0.31 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.70 |
| 2010 | #97 | Rennie Curran | DEF | -0.51 | -0.38 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.73 |
| 2007 | #50 | Chris Henry | OFF | -0.55 | -0.43 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.91 |
| 2008 | #54 | Jason Jones | DEF | -0.39 | -0.32 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.23 | -0.11 | -0.91 |
| 2008 | #229 | Cary Williams | DEF | -0.81 | -0.53 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.17 |
| 2009 | #30 | Kenny Britt | OFF | -0.34 | -0.57 | -0.73 | -0.38 | — | -0.54 | -0.30 | -1.35 |
| 2008 | #103 | William Hayes | DEF | -0.69 | -1.02 | — | -0.89 | — | -0.27 | -0.15 | -1.96 |
| 2009 | #89 | Jared Cook | OFF | -1.02 | -1.60 | — | -1.07 | — | -0.92 | -0.56 | -3.12 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.