Roger Headrick
MIN · Composite skill θ = -0.07 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.93 to +0.79
Evidence: 12 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 1992–1993 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.23
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1992–1993MINPresident + de facto GM; post-Lynn era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | #125 | Ed McDaniel | DEF | +2.94 |
| 1993 | #21 | Robert Smith | OFF | +2.83 |
| 1993 | #192 | Gino Torretta | OFF | +0.29 |
| 1992 | #98 | Roy Barker | DEF | +0.28 |
| 1993 | #57 | John Gerak | OFF | +0.15 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | #79 | Gilbert Brown | DEF | -3.17 |
| 1992 | #39 | Robert Harris | DEF | -1.69 |
| 1993 | #52 | Qadry Ismail | OFF | -1.59 |
| 1993 | #133 | Everett Lindsay | OFF | -0.44 |
| 1993 | #106 | Ashley Sheppard | DEF | -0.35 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 12 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1992 | #125 | Ed McDaniel | DEF | +1.43 | +1.90 | — | +1.42 | — | -0.15 | -0.12 | +2.94 |
| 1993 | #21 | Robert Smith | OFF | +0.86 | +0.80 | — | +1.72 | — | +0.74 | -0.19 | +2.83 |
| 1993 | #192 | Gino Torretta | OFF | +0.03 | +0.21 | — | +0.17 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.29 |
| 1992 | #98 | Roy Barker | DEF | +0.09 | +0.39 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.28 |
| 1993 | #57 | John Gerak | OFF | +0.44 | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.15 |
| 1992 | #183 | David Wilson | DEF | -0.27 | +0.00 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1992 | #152 | Mike Gaddis | OFF | -0.43 | +0.00 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1993 | #106 | Ashley Sheppard | DEF | -0.19 | -0.25 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1993 | #133 | Everett Lindsay | OFF | +0.79 | -0.55 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.20 | -0.14 | -0.44 |
| 1993 | #52 | Qadry Ismail | OFF | -0.22 | -1.08 | — | -0.66 | — | -0.36 | -0.20 | -1.59 |
| 1992 | #39 | Robert Harris | DEF | -0.56 | -1.01 | — | -0.81 | — | -0.14 | -0.06 | -1.69 |
| 1993 | #79 | Gilbert Brown | DEF | -1.87 | -1.38 | — | -1.36 | — | -0.25 | -0.13 | -3.17 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.