Phil Krueger
TB · Composite skill θ = -0.83 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.54 to -0.12
Composite θ
-0.83
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-1.54–-0.12
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
1%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Terrible
interval excludes zero
Evidence: 104 mapped picks across 15 draft classes, 1980–1994 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.37
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1994TBVP/de facto draft head under Hugh Culverhouse Sr
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | #82 | John Lynch | DEF | +6.01 |
| 1990 | #108 | Tony Mayberry | OFF | +4.50 |
| 1981 | #34 | James Wilder | OFF | +2.25 |
| 1982 | #128 | Jeff Davis | DEF | +2.17 |
| 1993 | #145 | Chidi Ahanotu | DEF | +2.11 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | #1 | Vinny Testaverde | OFF | -12.69 |
| 1989 | #146 | Chris Mohr | ST | -5.30 |
| 1987 | #190 | Harry Swayne | OFF | -4.37 |
| 1985 | #176 | Mike Prior | DEF | -4.29 |
| 1986 | #1 | Bo Jackson | OFF | -3.04 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 104 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1993 | #82 | John Lynch | DEF | +1.13 | +1.41 | — | +1.26 | — | +3.50 | +3.47 | +6.01 |
| 1990 | #108 | Tony Mayberry | OFF | +2.29 | +2.73 | — | +1.60 | — | +0.90 | -0.12 | +4.50 |
| 1981 | #34 | James Wilder | OFF | +0.71 | +1.27 | — | +1.58 | — | -0.09 | -0.55 | +2.25 |
| 1982 | #128 | Jeff Davis | DEF | +1.14 | +1.52 | — | +0.87 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +2.17 |
| 1993 | #145 | Chidi Ahanotu | DEF | +1.02 | +1.64 | — | +0.93 | — | -0.18 | -0.11 | +2.11 |
| 1990 | #114 | Ian Beckles | OFF | +1.10 | +1.61 | — | +0.65 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | +1.90 |
| 1987 | #106 | Bruce Hill | OFF | +0.82 | +1.18 | — | +0.82 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.80 |
| 1980 | #49 | Kevin House | OFF | +0.78 | +1.14 | — | +0.90 | — | -0.34 | -0.14 | +1.62 |
| 1982 | #83 | John Cannon | DEF | +1.42 | +0.95 | — | +0.51 | — | -0.20 | -0.08 | +1.55 |
| 1980 | #76 | Scot Brantley | DEF | +1.28 | +0.92 | — | +0.58 | — | -0.23 | -0.12 | +1.51 |
| 1987 | #169 | Curt Jarvis | DEF | +0.51 | +0.96 | — | +0.64 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.36 |
| 1984 | #142 | Chris Washington | DEF | +0.84 | +0.86 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.17 |
| 1987 | #87 | Ron Hall | OFF | +0.92 | +1.44 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.19 | -0.09 | +1.11 |
| 1992 | #86 | Craig Erickson | OFF | +0.44 | +0.60 | — | +0.53 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | +1.04 |
| 1993 | #104 | Horace Copeland | OFF | +0.70 | +0.44 | — | +0.48 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.03 |
| 1987 | #36 | Ricky Reynolds | DEF | +0.65 | +1.34 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.49 | -0.32 | +0.99 |
| 1983 | #45 | Randy Grimes | OFF | +0.94 | +1.21 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.64 | -0.33 | +0.96 |
| 1983 | #72 | Jeremiah Castille | DEF | +0.51 | +0.67 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.86 |
| 1982 | #74 | Jerry Bell | OFF | +0.65 | +0.38 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.77 |
| 1981 | #89 | John Holt | DEF | +0.41 | +0.57 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.15 | -0.09 | +0.48 |
| 1988 | #113 | William Howard | OFF | +0.19 | +0.46 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.43 |
| 1988 | #86 | John Bruhin | OFF | +0.56 | +0.12 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.42 |
| 1988 | #4 | Paul Gruber | OFF | +1.85 | +2.38 | — | +0.59 | — | -2.58 | -1.98 | +0.42 |
| 1991 | #93 | Tony Covington | DEF | +0.18 | +0.18 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.34 |
| 1985 | #64 | Ervin Randle | DEF | +0.63 | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.18 | -0.11 | +0.32 |
| 1994 | #200 | Jim Pyne | OFF | +0.10 | +0.37 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.27 |
| 1986 | #40 | Kevin Murphy | DEF | +0.60 | +0.29 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.24 | -0.14 | +0.24 |
| 1992 | #59 | Mark Wheeler | DEF | +0.05 | +0.38 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.10 | -0.04 | +0.18 |
| 1990 | #30 | Reggie Cobb | OFF | +0.19 | +0.39 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.19 | -0.10 | +0.14 |
| 1991 | #174 | Calvin Tiggle | DEF | +0.13 | +0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 1994 | #136 | Pete Pierson | OFF | +1.15 | -0.42 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | +0.06 |
| 1988 | #167 | Kerry Goode | OFF | -0.09 | +0.14 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 1990 | #87 | Jesse Anderson | OFF | +0.13 | -0.19 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 1992 | #132 | Santana Dotson | DEF | +0.06 | +0.27 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.03 |
| 1991 | #136 | Tim Ryan | OFF | +0.43 | -0.26 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 1992 | #79 | Tyji Armstrong | OFF | +0.37 | +0.10 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.02 |
| 1987 | #57 | Mark Carrier | OFF | -0.11 | +0.47 | — | -0.06 | — | +0.25 | -0.47 | +0.01 |
| 1984 | #169 | Jay Carroll | OFF | -0.13 | -0.09 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| 1982 | #185 | Tom Morris | DEF | +0.01 | -0.11 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 1988 | #53 | Lars Tate | OFF | -0.04 | +0.14 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| 1986 | #165 | Kevin Walker | DEF | -0.28 | +0.00 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 1988 | #107 | Monte Robbins | ST | -0.57 | +0.12 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 1983 | #158 | Ken Kaplan | OFF | +0.26 | -0.27 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1994 | #34 | Errict Rhett | OFF | +0.04 | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.16 | -0.08 | -0.12 |
| 1992 | #184 | Ken Swilling | DEF | -0.35 | +0.00 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1992 | #44 | Courtney Hawkins | OFF | +0.30 | +0.14 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.28 | -0.15 | -0.14 |
| 1983 | #99 | Kelly Thomas | OFF | -0.08 | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 1993 | #176 | Tyree Davis | OFF | -0.32 | +0.01 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1986 | #83 | Craig Swoope | DEF | -0.27 | +0.04 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1990 | #171 | Donnie Gardner | DEF | -0.37 | -0.01 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 1991 | #66 | Lawrence Dawsey | OFF | -0.09 | +0.08 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.21 | -0.11 | -0.19 |
| 1992 | #118 | Rogerick Green | DEF | -0.20 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1984 | #30 | Keith Browner | DEF | +0.13 | +0.01 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.21 |
| 1980 | #186 | Jim Leonard | OFF | +0.44 | -0.42 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.26 |
| 1982 | #158 | Andre Tyler | OFF | -0.17 | -0.14 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1987 | #143 | Steve Bartalo | OFF | -0.28 | -0.06 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1986 | #112 | J.D. Maarleveld | OFF | +0.03 | -0.31 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1993 | #91 | Rudy Harris | OFF | -0.15 | -0.11 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1990 | #141 | Derrick Douglas | OFF | -0.47 | -0.03 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1993 | #34 | Demetrious DuBose | DEF | +0.57 | -0.50 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.36 |
| 1983 | #185 | Weldon Ledbetter | OFF | -0.47 | -0.02 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1994 | #165 | Bernard Carter | DEF | -0.45 | -0.10 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1987 | #137 | Tony Mayes | DEF | -0.49 | -0.13 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1989 | #117 | Jamie Lawson | OFF | -0.42 | -0.10 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1992 | #148 | James Malone | DEF | -0.50 | -0.14 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1983 | #148 | Gene Branton | OFF | -0.42 | -0.14 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1989 | #154 | Derrick Little | DEF | -0.51 | -0.15 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1994 | #69 | Harold Bishop | OFF | -0.54 | -0.36 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1983 | #131 | Tony Chickillo | DEF | -0.56 | -0.18 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1986 | #28 | Jackie Walker | DEF | +0.39 | -0.51 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.55 |
| 1991 | #80 | Robert Wilson | OFF | -0.44 | +0.02 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.57 |
| 1991 | #120 | Terry Bagsby | DEF | -0.57 | -0.22 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 1989 | #90 | Anthony Florence | DEF | -0.60 | -0.26 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 1991 | #7 | Charles McRae | OFF | +0.49 | -0.35 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.16 | -0.09 | -0.61 |
| 1993 | #60 | Lamar Thomas | OFF | +0.01 | -0.47 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.62 |
| 1984 | #107 | Michael Gunter | OFF | -0.63 | -0.19 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 1980 | #22 | Ray Snell | OFF | -0.17 | -0.24 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.20 | -0.09 | -0.68 |
| 1982 | #103 | Dave Barrett | OFF | -0.51 | -0.23 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.69 |
| 1987 | #51 | Don Smith | OFF | -0.28 | -0.32 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.69 |
| 1985 | #92 | Mike Heaven | DEF | -0.64 | -0.29 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 1984 | #57 | Fred Acorn | DEF | -0.40 | -0.44 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.78 |
| 1993 | #6 | Eric Curry | DEF | +0.03 | -0.18 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.19 | -0.09 | -0.80 |
| 1982 | #32 | Booker Reese | DEF | -0.36 | -0.48 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 1987 | #84 | Don Graham | DEF | -0.67 | -0.37 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.87 |
| 1989 | #33 | Danny Peebles | OFF | -0.27 | -0.56 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 1990 | #4 | Keith McCants | DEF | -0.09 | -0.34 | — | -0.73 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | -1.05 |
| 1991 | #147 | Rhett Hall | DEF | -0.52 | -0.59 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.07 |
| 1980 | #102 | Larry Flowers | DEF | -0.90 | -0.51 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.17 |
| 1988 | #83 | Robert Goff | DEF | -0.77 | -0.50 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.13 | -0.06 | -1.27 |
| 1987 | #135 | Henry Rolling | DEF | -0.68 | -0.75 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -1.36 |
| 1984 | #112 | Ron Heller | OFF | -0.71 | -0.20 | — | -0.60 | — | -0.52 | -0.32 | -1.48 |
| 1985 | #8 | Ron Holmes | DEF | -0.47 | -0.36 | — | -0.83 | — | -0.39 | -0.17 | -1.53 |
| 1989 | #6 | Broderick Thomas | DEF | -0.01 | -0.37 | — | -0.77 | — | -0.74 | -0.57 | -1.61 |
| 1987 | #50 | Winston Moss | DEF | -0.68 | -0.24 | — | -0.72 | — | -0.65 | -0.44 | -1.73 |
| 1988 | #163 | Shawn Lee | DEF | -0.96 | -1.08 | — | -1.06 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | -2.18 |
| 1986 | #25 | Rod Jones | DEF | -0.82 | -0.63 | — | -1.11 | — | -0.93 | -0.64 | -2.62 |
| 1981 | #7 | Hugh Green | DEF | -1.21 | -0.89 | — | -0.67 | — | -0.42 | -1.80 | -2.83 |
| 1982 | #17 | Sean Farrell | OFF | -0.79 | -0.57 | — | -0.93 | — | -1.76 | -0.95 | -2.97 |
| 1994 | #6 | Trent Dilfer | OFF | -0.77 | -0.53 | — | -1.05 | — | -2.06 | -0.54 | -3.00 |
| 1986 | #1 | Bo Jackson | OFF | -1.03 | -1.22 | — | -1.72 | — | -0.22 | -0.15 | -3.04 |
| 1985 | #176 | Mike Prior | DEF | -2.05 | -1.84 | — | -1.95 | — | -0.41 | -0.38 | -4.29 |
| 1987 | #190 | Harry Swayne | OFF | -1.57 | -2.11 | — | -2.08 | — | -0.49 | -0.42 | -4.37 |
| 1989 | #146 | Chris Mohr | ST | -2.58 | -1.98 | — | -2.27 | — | -0.69 | -0.81 | -5.30 |
| 1987 | #1 | Vinny Testaverde | OFF | -2.73 | -2.54 | — | -4.04 | — | -8.15 | -3.86 | -12.69 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.