Marv Levy
BUF · Composite skill θ = -0.05 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.71 to +0.61
Evidence: 16 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2006–2007 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.23
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2006–2007BUFBrief return as GM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | #134 | Kyle Williams | DEF | +5.94 |
| 2006 | #178 | Keith Ellison | DEF | +1.73 |
| 2007 | #92 | Trent Edwards | OFF | +0.94 |
| 2006 | #143 | Brad Butler | OFF | +0.82 |
| 2006 | #105 | Ko Simpson | DEF | +0.68 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | #12 | Marshawn Lynch | OFF | -5.96 |
| 2006 | #8 | Donte Whitner | DEF | -2.91 |
| 2007 | #34 | Paul Posluszny | DEF | -2.50 |
| 2006 | #26 | John McCargo | DEF | -1.09 |
| 2007 | #111 | Dwayne Wright | OFF | -0.34 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 16 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2006 | #134 | Kyle Williams | DEF | +2.21 | +3.27 | +1.15 | +2.72 | +0.92 | +4.04 | -0.22 | +5.94 |
| 2006 | #178 | Keith Ellison | DEF | +0.93 | +0.98 | — | +0.78 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.73 |
| 2007 | #92 | Trent Edwards | OFF | +0.34 | +0.63 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.03 | +0.00 | +0.94 |
| 2006 | #143 | Brad Butler | OFF | +0.33 | +0.56 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.82 |
| 2006 | #105 | Ko Simpson | DEF | +0.24 | +0.52 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.68 |
| 2007 | #222 | Derek Schouman | OFF | +0.14 | +0.38 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.57 |
| 2006 | #216 | Terrance Pennington | OFF | -0.06 | +0.08 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 2007 | #239 | C.J. Ah You | DEF | -0.28 | +0.05 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 2006 | #248 | Aaron Merz | OFF | -0.11 | -0.10 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2007 | #184 | John Wendling | DEF | +0.32 | -0.40 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.26 |
| 2006 | #70 | Ashton Youboty | DEF | +0.17 | -0.34 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.27 |
| 2007 | #111 | Dwayne Wright | OFF | -0.21 | -0.15 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.34 |
| 2006 | #26 | John McCargo | DEF | -0.11 | -0.82 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.09 |
| 2007 | #34 | Paul Posluszny | DEF | -1.12 | -0.57 | — | -0.84 | — | -0.92 | -0.71 | -2.50 |
| 2006 | #8 | Donte Whitner | DEF | -0.65 | -0.34 | — | -1.09 | — | -1.40 | -1.26 | -2.91 |
| 2007 | #12 | Marshawn Lynch | OFF | -1.70 | -1.40 | — | -1.70 | — | -2.65 | -2.77 | -5.96 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.