Bill Belichick
CLE · NE · Composite skill θ = +0.27 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.42 to +0.96
Composite θ
+0.27
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.42–+0.96
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
78%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 246 mapped picks across 29 draft classes, 1991–2023 · 92% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.10
- maturity discount
- -0.02
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1991–1995CLEHC + de facto GM; pre-Baltimore relocation (1991-1995); Mike Lombardi Director Pro Personnel
- 2000–2023NEDe facto GM throughout
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | #199 | Tom Brady | OFF | +15.71 |
| 2010 | #42 | Rob Gronkowski | OFF | +8.08 |
| 2001 | #48 | Matt Light | OFF | +7.47 |
| 2001 | #6 | Richard Seymour | DEF | +6.38 |
| 2005 | #32 | Logan Mankins | OFF | +6.25 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | #32 | Ben Watson | OFF | -6.11 |
| 2014 | #62 | Jimmy Garoppolo | OFF | -3.71 |
| 2010 | #205 | Ted Larsen | OFF | -3.01 |
| 2012 | #48 | Tavon Wilson | DEF | -2.92 |
| 2011 | #159 | Lee Smith | OFF | -2.89 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 246 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2000 | #199 | Tom Brady | OFF | +2.42 | +4.08 | +0.29 | +7.58 | +1.37 | +11.69 | +6.27 | +15.71 |
| 2010 | #42 | Rob Gronkowski | OFF | +0.37 | +0.81 | +0.20 | +1.96 | +3.57 | +1.88 | +7.83 | +8.08 |
| 2001 | #48 | Matt Light | OFF | +1.74 | +2.48 | — | +3.11 | — | +2.72 | +1.78 | +7.47 |
| 2001 | #6 | Richard Seymour | DEF | +0.18 | +0.53 | — | +1.27 | — | +4.02 | +5.51 | +6.38 |
| 2005 | #32 | Logan Mankins | OFF | +1.02 | +1.68 | -0.60 | +3.17 | +1.73 | +4.61 | +1.58 | +6.25 |
| 2003 | #164 | Dan Koppen | OFF | +1.49 | +2.17 | — | +2.43 | — | +0.98 | -0.09 | +4.70 |
| 2004 | #21 | Vince Wilfork | DEF | +1.18 | +1.83 | -1.28 | +2.09 | -0.84 | +4.09 | +1.34 | +3.92 |
| 2022 | #85 | Marcus Jones | DEF | +0.38 | +0.16 | -0.06 | +0.85 | +4.37 | -0.06 | +2.12 | +3.80 |
| 2009 | #232 | Julian Edelman | OFF | +1.49 | +1.04 | +1.94 | +1.76 | +1.55 | -0.21 | -0.17 | +2.96 |
| 2010 | #27 | Devin McCourty | DEF | +2.27 | +3.40 | +2.29 | +1.86 | +0.15 | +0.12 | -1.76 | +2.84 |
| 2005 | #100 | Nick Kaczur | OFF | +1.07 | +1.31 | — | +1.48 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +2.65 |
| 2012 | #25 | Dont'a Hightower | DEF | +0.71 | +1.36 | +0.50 | +1.59 | +1.19 | +1.08 | -0.80 | +2.39 |
| 2008 | #10 | Jerod Mayo | DEF | +0.76 | +0.95 | -0.86 | +0.95 | -0.30 | +1.67 | +1.76 | +2.33 |
| 2020 | #182 | Michael Onwenu | OFF | +1.50 | +1.83 | +1.78 | +1.09 | +0.17 | -0.07 | -0.04 | +2.27 |
| 2002 | #126 | Jarvis Green | DEF | +1.87 | +0.63 | — | +0.88 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +2.09 |
| 2008 | #153 | Matthew Slater | OFF | +2.83 | -2.24 | -2.10 | -2.65 | -2.40 | +6.75 | +3.49 | +2.09 |
| 2009 | #58 | Sebastian Vollmer | OFF | +0.96 | +1.22 | +0.56 | +1.68 | +0.73 | -0.13 | -0.07 | +2.01 |
| 2002 | #253 | David Givens | OFF | +1.07 | +0.86 | — | +1.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +2.00 |
| 2003 | #120 | Asante Samuel | DEF | +0.05 | +0.19 | — | +0.38 | — | +0.88 | +1.96 | +1.92 |
| 2018 | #143 | Ja'Whaun Bentley | DEF | +0.84 | +1.13 | +0.51 | +1.06 | +1.28 | -0.12 | -0.08 | +1.90 |
| 2006 | #118 | Stephen Gostkowski | ST | +2.16 | -1.85 | +0.34 | -0.01 | -0.31 | +0.27 | +3.34 | +1.86 |
| 2019 | #163 | Jake Bailey | ST | +0.32 | -0.34 | +1.22 | +0.03 | -0.32 | +0.98 | +2.06 | +1.77 |
| 2017 | #131 | Deatrich Wise Jr. | DEF | +1.54 | +0.65 | +0.98 | +0.96 | +0.58 | -0.22 | -0.11 | +1.67 |
| 2023 | #17 | Christian Gonzalez | DEF | -0.15 | +0.09 | -0.21 | +0.10 | +2.41 | +0.98 | -0.06 | +1.63 |
| 2005 | #84 | Ellis Hobbs | DEF | +0.71 | +0.89 | — | +0.84 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.61 |
| 2023 | #210 | DeMario Douglas | OFF | +0.84 | +0.39 | +0.74 | +0.53 | +1.06 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.44 |
| 2021 | #120 | Rhamondre Stevenson | OFF | +0.84 | +0.93 | +1.09 | +0.89 | +0.23 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +1.44 |
| 2012 | #224 | Alfonzo Dennard | DEF | +0.30 | +0.49 | +1.24 | +0.39 | +1.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.37 |
| 2010 | #113 | Aaron Hernandez | OFF | +0.28 | +0.51 | — | +0.99 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.36 |
| 2015 | #131 | Shaq Mason | OFF | +0.79 | +1.32 | +1.48 | +0.86 | -0.01 | -0.37 | -0.24 | +1.31 |
| 2023 | #192 | Bryce Baringer | ST | +0.86 | +0.28 | +0.61 | +0.67 | +0.81 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.31 |
| 2005 | #133 | James Sanders | DEF | +0.95 | +0.71 | — | +0.48 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | +1.26 |
| 1991 | #141 | Michael Jackson | OFF | +0.64 | +0.75 | — | +0.58 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +1.22 |
| 2014 | #130 | James White | OFF | +1.05 | -0.39 | +0.54 | +1.07 | +0.64 | -0.19 | -0.11 | +1.11 |
| 2019 | #159 | Byron Cowart | DEF | -0.41 | -0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +2.58 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.09 |
| 2015 | #101 | Trey Flowers | DEF | -0.21 | +0.13 | +0.28 | +0.30 | +1.74 | -0.15 | -0.07 | +0.98 |
| 2023 | #187 | Kayshon Boutte | OFF | +0.46 | +0.60 | +0.68 | +0.37 | +0.36 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.94 |
| 2010 | #150 | Zoltan Mesko | ST | +0.65 | +0.17 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.86 |
| 2010 | #247 | Brandon Deaderick | DEF | +0.51 | +0.41 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.85 |
| 2015 | #32 | Malcom Brown | DEF | +0.05 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.30 | +1.18 | -0.24 | -0.10 | +0.79 |
| 2000 | #187 | Antwan Harris | DEF | +0.93 | +0.06 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.78 |
| 2003 | #239 | Tully Banta-Cain | DEF | +1.11 | +0.04 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | +0.76 |
| 2000 | #127 | Greg Randall | OFF | +0.38 | +0.34 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.74 |
| 2019 | #87 | Damien Harris | OFF | +0.03 | +0.48 | -0.34 | +0.24 | +1.18 | -0.11 | -0.05 | +0.69 |
| 2003 | #13 | Ty Warren | DEF | +0.54 | +0.76 | — | +0.48 | — | -0.61 | -0.32 | +0.67 |
| 2020 | #37 | Kyle Dugger | DEF | +0.65 | +0.89 | +0.37 | +0.32 | +0.16 | -0.29 | -0.16 | +0.66 |
| 2020 | #87 | Anfernee Jennings | DEF | +0.64 | +0.31 | +0.07 | +0.35 | +0.41 | -0.17 | -0.10 | +0.59 |
| 2008 | #129 | Jonathan Wilhite | DEF | +0.42 | +0.18 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.56 |
| 2002 | #65 | Deion Branch | OFF | +0.23 | +0.51 | — | +0.50 | — | -0.46 | -0.28 | +0.50 |
| 2023 | #245 | Isaiah Bolden | DEF | +0.23 | +0.19 | +0.41 | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.49 |
| 2021 | #15 | Mac Jones | OFF | +0.05 | +0.19 | +0.26 | +0.15 | -0.42 | +0.87 | -0.03 | +0.45 |
| 2006 | #229 | Willie Andrews | DEF | +0.43 | +0.03 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.43 |
| 2006 | #206 | Le Kevin Smith | DEF | +0.42 | +0.02 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.41 |
| 2001 | #216 | Owen Pochman | ST | -0.29 | +0.38 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.41 |
| 2000 | #239 | Patrick Pass | OFF | +1.02 | -0.08 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.41 |
| 2016 | #78 | Joe Thuney | OFF | +0.06 | +0.62 | +1.01 | +0.51 | +0.29 | -0.72 | -0.43 | +0.39 |
| 2010 | #62 | Brandon Spikes | DEF | -0.01 | +0.20 | +0.13 | +0.09 | +0.62 | -0.13 | -0.09 | +0.35 |
| 1992 | #143 | Rico Smith | OFF | +0.29 | +0.16 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.32 |
| 2011 | #138 | Marcus Cannon | OFF | +0.84 | +0.31 | +0.14 | +0.46 | +0.15 | -0.48 | -0.36 | +0.32 |
| 2003 | #201 | Kliff Kingsbury | OFF | +0.01 | +0.21 | — | +0.17 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.28 |
| 2009 | #207 | Myron Pryor | DEF | +0.22 | +0.04 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.28 |
| 2014 | #105 | Bryan Stork | OFF | -0.20 | -0.06 | -0.18 | +0.10 | +0.79 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.28 |
| 2006 | #21 | Laurence Maroney | OFF | +0.14 | -0.32 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.26 |
| 1993 | #124 | Herman Arvie | OFF | +0.68 | -0.22 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 2009 | #34 | Patrick Chung | DEF | +1.25 | +1.33 | +0.88 | +0.23 | -0.46 | -0.89 | -0.69 | +0.25 |
| 2010 | #250 | Zac Robinson | OFF | +0.01 | +0.20 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.25 |
| 2018 | #250 | Ryan Izzo | OFF | -0.11 | +0.24 | +0.12 | +0.21 | +0.17 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 2015 | #111 | Tre' Jackson | OFF | -0.39 | -0.28 | -0.74 | -0.12 | +1.60 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.24 |
| 2020 | #195 | Justin Herron | OFF | +0.02 | -0.19 | +0.07 | -0.08 | +0.64 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.22 |
| 2000 | #201 | David Nugent | DEF | +0.07 | +0.08 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 |
| 2016 | #214 | Elandon Roberts | DEF | -0.18 | -0.24 | -0.32 | -0.20 | +1.50 | -0.22 | -0.19 | +0.21 |
| 2022 | #137 | Bailey Zappe | OFF | +0.22 | +0.29 | +0.53 | +0.12 | -0.40 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 |
| 1994 | #141 | Issac Booth | DEF | +0.16 | -0.02 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 2001 | #200 | Leonard Myers | DEF | +0.05 | +0.05 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 2013 | #226 | Michael Buchanan | DEF | +0.03 | -0.06 | -0.15 | +0.07 | +0.41 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| 2005 | #255 | Andy Stokes | OFF | -0.30 | +0.03 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.14 |
| 2023 | #112 | Chad Ryland | ST | -0.15 | +0.11 | +0.09 | +0.13 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.13 |
| 2003 | #36 | Eugene Wilson | DEF | +0.09 | +0.42 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.18 | -0.13 | +0.13 |
| 1992 | #177 | Selwyn Jones | DEF | -0.09 | +0.04 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 2007 | #24 | Brandon Meriweather | DEF | -0.20 | -0.36 | — | -0.34 | — | +1.75 | -0.33 | +0.09 |
| 2013 | #52 | Jamie Collins | DEF | -0.08 | +0.07 | -0.12 | +0.55 | +0.97 | -0.75 | -0.53 | +0.08 |
| 2006 | #136 | Ryan O'Callaghan | OFF | +0.14 | -0.13 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| 2003 | #243 | Ethan Kelley | DEF | -0.21 | +0.10 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2002 | #117 | Rohan Davey | OFF | +0.01 | +0.04 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 2000 | #76 | J.R. Redmond | OFF | +0.17 | -0.09 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.04 |
| 2015 | #166 | Joe Cardona | ST | +2.02 | -1.01 | — | -0.59 | +0.36 | -0.37 | -0.36 | +0.03 |
| 2014 | #198 | Zach Moore | DEF | -0.28 | -0.09 | +0.50 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2007 | #202 | Mike Richardson | DEF | -0.12 | -0.02 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2001 | #180 | Arther Love | OFF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 1995 | #231 | A.C. Tellison | OFF | -0.24 | +0.10 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 2023 | #214 | Ameer Speed | DEF | -0.21 | -0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 1991 | #85 | Pio Sagapolutele | DEF | +0.54 | -0.28 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| 2022 | #245 | Andrew Stueber | OFF | -0.26 | -0.12 | +0.60 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 2004 | #233 | Christian Morton | DEF | -0.27 | +0.05 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 2002 | #237 | Antwoine Womack | OFF | -0.27 | +0.14 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2003 | #234 | Spencer Nead | OFF | -0.28 | +0.13 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2011 | #73 | Stevan Ridley | OFF | -0.11 | -0.20 | -0.32 | +0.17 | +0.56 | -0.26 | -0.15 | -0.05 |
| 2019 | #77 | Chase Winovich | DEF | +0.19 | -0.29 | +0.40 | +0.00 | -0.22 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.06 |
| 1993 | #180 | Travis Hill | DEF | +0.01 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 2018 | #31 | Sony Michel | OFF | -0.19 | -0.01 | -0.27 | -0.08 | +0.58 | -0.22 | -0.10 | -0.07 |
| 2009 | #234 | Darryl Richard | DEF | -0.32 | +0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 2010 | #248 | Kade Weston | DEF | -0.31 | +0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 2021 | #38 | Christian Barmore | DEF | +0.45 | -0.09 | +0.01 | +0.07 | -0.31 | -0.16 | -0.06 | -0.11 |
| 2001 | #96 | Kenyatta Jones | OFF | -0.12 | -0.09 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2023 | #46 | Keion White | DEF | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.01 | -0.36 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.12 |
| 2000 | #141 | Dave Stachelski | OFF | -0.47 | -0.12 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 2001 | #239 | T.J. Turner | DEF | -0.28 | +0.01 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 2011 | #56 | Shane Vereen | OFF | -0.21 | -0.57 | +0.27 | -0.04 | +0.42 | -0.20 | -0.11 | -0.14 |
| 2003 | #117 | Dan Klecko | DEF | +0.02 | -0.23 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2000 | #161 | Jeff Marriott | DEF | -0.37 | -0.01 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 2004 | #113 | Dexter Reid | DEF | -0.21 | -0.13 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2011 | #219 | Malcolm Williams | DEF | -0.29 | -0.05 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2015 | #202 | A.J. Derby | OFF | -0.45 | -0.20 | -0.10 | +0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2018 | #219 | Danny Etling | OFF | -0.22 | +0.00 | -0.18 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 2023 | #117 | Sidy Sow | OFF | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.12 | -0.06 | -0.42 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2003 | #45 | Bethel Johnson | OFF | +0.20 | -0.28 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.18 |
| 2022 | #127 | Pierre Strong | OFF | -0.13 | -0.09 | +0.05 | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2023 | #76 | Marte Mapu | DEF | +0.40 | -0.08 | -0.20 | +0.05 | -0.44 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.18 |
| 1992 | #163 | George Williams | DEF | -0.37 | -0.01 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 1994 | #171 | Robert Strait | OFF | -0.38 | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2007 | #208 | Justise Hairston | OFF | -0.37 | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2000 | #226 | Casey Tisdale | DEF | -0.34 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1993 | #42 | Dan Footman | DEF | +0.02 | -0.15 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| 2016 | #112 | Malcolm Mitchell | OFF | -0.37 | -0.18 | -0.77 | -0.13 | +0.67 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| 2022 | #200 | Sam Roberts | DEF | -0.20 | -0.11 | -0.08 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2016 | #221 | Ted Karras | OFF | +0.32 | -0.34 | -0.22 | -0.26 | +0.32 | -0.21 | -0.15 | -0.23 |
| 2004 | #164 | P.K. Sam | OFF | -0.34 | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2009 | #198 | Jake Ingram | OFF | -0.01 | -0.24 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 1995 | #94 | Mike Frederick | DEF | -0.15 | -0.19 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2001 | #119 | Jabari Holloway | OFF | -0.53 | -0.18 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2008 | #94 | Kevin O'Connell | OFF | -0.24 | -0.09 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.25 |
| 2012 | #235 | Jeremy Ebert | OFF | -0.37 | -0.03 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1995 | #136 | Tau Pupua | DEF | -0.42 | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.26 |
| 2001 | #163 | Hakim Akbar | DEF | -0.32 | -0.11 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 1995 | #147 | Mike Miller | OFF | -0.39 | -0.04 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1993 | #153 | Rich McKenzie | DEF | -0.29 | -0.13 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2007 | #247 | Mike Elgin | OFF | -0.29 | -0.14 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1991 | #57 | James Jones | DEF | -0.19 | +0.06 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.25 | -0.12 | -0.30 |
| 2010 | #53 | Jermaine Cunningham | DEF | -0.01 | -0.20 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.30 |
| 1994 | #203 | Andre Hewitt | OFF | -0.31 | -0.14 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.30 |
| 2023 | #144 | Atonio Mafi | OFF | -0.07 | -0.18 | +0.25 | -0.14 | -0.47 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2007 | #211 | Oscar Lua | DEF | -0.42 | -0.08 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2013 | #59 | Aaron Dobson | OFF | -0.24 | -0.15 | -0.70 | -0.18 | +0.29 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.36 |
| 2006 | #205 | Dan Stevenson | OFF | -0.35 | -0.19 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2009 | #40 | Ron Brace | DEF | +0.10 | -0.38 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.37 |
| 2010 | #208 | Thomas Welch | OFF | -0.33 | -0.21 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2014 | #244 | Jeremy Gallon | OFF | -0.40 | -0.06 | -0.41 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2004 | #128 | Cedric Cobbs | OFF | -0.43 | -0.07 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2008 | #197 | Bo Ruud | DEF | -0.46 | -0.12 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2012 | #90 | Jake Bequette | DEF | -0.49 | -0.34 | +0.43 | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2013 | #235 | Steve Beauharnais | DEF | -0.44 | -0.14 | -0.19 | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2005 | #170 | Ryan Claridge | DEF | -0.48 | -0.13 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1995 | #84 | Eric Zeier | OFF | -0.28 | -0.12 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.42 |
| 2004 | #95 | Guss Scott | DEF | -0.43 | -0.18 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2007 | #127 | Kareem Brown | DEF | -0.50 | -0.15 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2007 | #180 | Justin Rogers | DEF | -0.48 | -0.13 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2014 | #206 | Jemea Thomas | DEF | -0.47 | -0.13 | -0.52 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2017 | #211 | Conor McDermott | OFF | -0.65 | -0.41 | -0.08 | -0.38 | +0.38 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.43 |
| 2022 | #121 | Jack Jones | DEF | -0.24 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.14 | -0.16 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.44 |
| 2015 | #97 | Geneo Grissom | DEF | +0.17 | -0.37 | -0.50 | -0.14 | -0.25 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 2015 | #253 | Xzavier Dickson | DEF | -0.50 | -0.16 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2007 | #171 | Clint Oldenburg | OFF | -0.43 | -0.26 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2011 | #194 | Markell Carter | DEF | -0.52 | -0.17 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1991 | #2 | Eric Turner | DEF | -0.32 | -0.30 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.73 | +1.45 | -0.53 |
| 2019 | #252 | Ken Webster | DEF | -0.52 | -0.18 | -0.48 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 2023 | #107 | Jake Andrews | OFF | -0.18 | -0.39 | -0.18 | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.54 |
| 2009 | #170 | George Bussey | OFF | -0.46 | -0.28 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2016 | #225 | Devin Lucien | OFF | -0.47 | -0.12 | -0.64 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2006 | #106 | Garrett Mills | OFF | -0.58 | -0.16 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 2001 | #86 | Brock Williams | DEF | -0.58 | -0.25 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 2006 | #86 | David Thomas | OFF | -0.29 | -0.33 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.59 |
| 2004 | #63 | Marquise Hill | DEF | -0.36 | -0.36 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 1994 | #75 | Romeo Bandison | DEF | -0.60 | -0.27 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 2022 | #183 | Kevin Harris | OFF | -0.34 | -0.10 | -0.94 | -0.14 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.63 |
| 2010 | #90 | Taylor Price | OFF | -0.55 | -0.31 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| 2015 | #247 | Darryl Roberts | DEF | -0.83 | -0.44 | +0.39 | -0.37 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.69 |
| 2016 | #96 | Vincent Valentine | DEF | -0.44 | -0.34 | -0.63 | -0.21 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.71 |
| 2022 | #29 | Cole Strange | OFF | -0.32 | -0.19 | -0.49 | -0.35 | -0.18 | -0.17 | -0.07 | -0.72 |
| 1991 | #29 | Ed King | OFF | -0.34 | -0.30 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | -0.73 |
| 1992 | #65 | Bill Johnson | DEF | -0.29 | -0.45 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.73 |
| 2008 | #62 | Terrence Wheatley | DEF | -0.47 | -0.40 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.73 |
| 2021 | #197 | William Sherman | OFF | -0.66 | -0.49 | +0.08 | -0.37 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.76 |
| 2020 | #159 | Justin Rohrwasser | ST | -0.73 | -0.02 | -1.54 | +0.03 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.77 |
| 2022 | #210 | Chasen Hines | OFF | -0.50 | -0.33 | -0.74 | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| 2012 | #197 | Nate Ebner | DEF | +1.20 | -1.03 | -1.33 | -0.46 | -0.07 | -0.14 | -0.13 | -0.78 |
| 2013 | #102 | Josh Boyce | OFF | -0.43 | -0.24 | -0.89 | -0.23 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.78 |
| 2009 | #97 | Tyrone McKenzie | DEF | -0.71 | -0.36 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.86 |
| 2015 | #178 | Matthew Wells | DEF | -0.63 | -0.27 | -0.97 | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.87 |
| 2000 | #46 | Adrian Klemm | OFF | -0.31 | -0.54 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.87 |
| 2021 | #242 | Tre Nixon | OFF | -0.58 | -0.23 | -1.09 | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.88 |
| 1992 | #52 | Patrick Rowe | OFF | -0.58 | -0.41 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.89 |
| 2008 | #78 | Shawn Crable | DEF | -0.61 | -0.42 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
| 2021 | #177 | Cameron McGrone | DEF | -0.79 | -0.42 | -0.27 | -0.37 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.90 |
| 2014 | #179 | Jon Halapio | OFF | -0.73 | -0.53 | -0.24 | -0.40 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.93 |
| 2014 | #29 | Dominique Easley | DEF | -0.46 | -0.68 | -0.39 | -0.48 | -0.28 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.95 |
| 2017 | #83 | Derek Rivers | DEF | -0.48 | -0.47 | -0.95 | -0.28 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.95 |
| 2020 | #230 | Dustin Woodard | OFF | -0.59 | -0.41 | -0.88 | -0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.96 |
| 2006 | #36 | Chad Jackson | OFF | -0.48 | -0.55 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.98 |
| 2020 | #204 | Cassh Maluia | DEF | -0.49 | -0.34 | -1.25 | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.00 |
| 2019 | #133 | Jarrett Stidham | OFF | -0.62 | -0.54 | -0.35 | -0.47 | — | -0.09 | -0.02 | -1.02 |
| 2009 | #123 | Rich Ohrnberger | OFF | -0.64 | -0.56 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.05 |
| 2021 | #188 | Joshuah Bledsoe | DEF | -0.59 | -0.32 | -1.52 | -0.23 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.07 |
| 2018 | #178 | Christian Sam | DEF | -0.70 | -0.34 | -1.21 | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.08 |
| 2019 | #101 | Yodny Cajuste | OFF | -0.43 | -0.52 | -1.20 | -0.32 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.08 |
| 2019 | #32 | N'Keal Harry | OFF | -0.30 | -0.35 | -0.41 | -0.51 | -0.76 | -0.19 | -0.08 | -1.13 |
| 2015 | #64 | Jordan Richards | DEF | -0.19 | -0.70 | -0.36 | -0.52 | -0.65 | -0.17 | -0.11 | -1.14 |
| 2022 | #50 | Tyquan Thornton | OFF | -0.23 | -0.25 | -0.75 | -0.42 | -0.90 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -1.15 |
| 1994 | #9 | Antonio Langham | DEF | -0.30 | -0.38 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.19 | -0.14 | -1.16 |
| 1993 | #14 | Steve Everitt | OFF | -0.45 | -0.32 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.32 | -0.19 | -1.17 |
| 2016 | #60 | Cyrus Jones | DEF | -0.61 | -0.55 | -1.01 | -0.40 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.18 |
| 2013 | #91 | Duron Harmon | DEF | +0.70 | -0.70 | -0.71 | -0.52 | -0.37 | -0.55 | -0.44 | -1.19 |
| 2020 | #91 | Devin Asiasi | OFF | -0.70 | -0.49 | -1.49 | -0.24 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -1.20 |
| 2011 | #74 | Ryan Mallett | OFF | -0.71 | -0.57 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.07 | -0.01 | -1.21 |
| 2018 | #243 | Keion Crossen | DEF | -0.85 | -0.70 | -0.07 | -0.59 | — | -0.08 | -0.07 | -1.21 |
| 2020 | #101 | Dalton Keene | OFF | -0.76 | -0.54 | -1.52 | -0.21 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -1.21 |
| 2011 | #33 | Ras-I Dowling | DEF | -0.71 | -0.64 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.23 |
| 2020 | #60 | Joshua Uche | DEF | +0.12 | -0.82 | -1.25 | -0.43 | -0.41 | -0.23 | -0.13 | -1.25 |
| 2019 | #45 | Joejuan Williams | DEF | -0.17 | -0.73 | -1.00 | -0.47 | -0.66 | -0.13 | -0.07 | -1.30 |
| 2014 | #140 | Cameron Fleming | OFF | -0.75 | -1.00 | -0.96 | -0.83 | +0.70 | -0.45 | -0.31 | -1.34 |
| 2013 | #83 | Logan Ryan | DEF | -0.47 | -0.42 | +0.03 | -0.68 | -0.40 | -0.61 | -0.48 | -1.37 |
| 2018 | #23 | Isaiah Wynn | OFF | -0.51 | -0.38 | -0.79 | -0.42 | -0.31 | -0.58 | -0.30 | -1.37 |
| 1995 | #30 | Craig Powell | DEF | -0.83 | -0.68 | — | -0.61 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.40 |
| 2011 | #17 | Nate Solder | OFF | +0.05 | +0.42 | +0.01 | +0.38 | -0.56 | -1.78 | -1.18 | -1.41 |
| 2021 | #96 | Ronnie Perkins | DEF | -0.89 | -0.52 | -1.54 | -0.42 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.46 |
| 2018 | #56 | Duke Dawson | DEF | -0.97 | -0.65 | -1.03 | -0.51 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -1.46 |
| 2017 | #85 | Antonio Garcia | OFF | -0.84 | -0.67 | -1.31 | -0.50 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.49 |
| 2007 | #209 | Corey Hilliard | OFF | -0.96 | -0.73 | — | -0.62 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.51 |
| 2018 | #210 | Braxton Berrios | OFF | -1.16 | -0.73 | -0.29 | -0.72 | — | -0.12 | -0.08 | -1.55 |
| 2012 | #21 | Chandler Jones | DEF | -0.95 | -0.51 | +0.01 | -0.51 | -0.08 | -1.25 | -0.64 | -1.74 |
| 2019 | #118 | Hjalte Froholdt | OFF | -1.00 | -0.95 | -0.86 | -0.79 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | -1.87 |
| 1994 | #29 | Derrick Alexander | OFF | -0.96 | -0.94 | — | -0.76 | — | -0.35 | -0.19 | -1.98 |
| 1992 | #78 | Gerald Dixon | DEF | -0.70 | -1.03 | — | -0.95 | — | -0.25 | -0.18 | -2.04 |
| 1992 | #9 | Tommy Vardell | OFF | -0.66 | -0.70 | — | -1.00 | — | -0.50 | -0.30 | -2.08 |
| 2006 | #191 | Jeremy Mincey | DEF | -1.40 | -0.93 | — | -0.91 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -2.13 |
| 2009 | #41 | Darius Butler | DEF | -0.97 | -1.09 | — | -0.92 | — | -0.36 | -0.26 | -2.26 |
| 2005 | #230 | Matt Cassel | OFF | -1.23 | -1.11 | — | -0.99 | — | -0.17 | -0.05 | -2.27 |
| 2016 | #208 | Kamu Grugier-Hill | DEF | -1.42 | -0.97 | — | -0.95 | — | -0.15 | -0.12 | -2.28 |
| 2009 | #83 | Brandon Tate | OFF | -1.27 | -0.94 | — | -0.88 | — | -0.36 | -0.22 | -2.28 |
| 1993 | #83 | Mike Caldwell | DEF | -0.81 | -1.24 | — | -1.07 | — | -0.34 | -0.26 | -2.39 |
| 2002 | #21 | Daniel Graham | OFF | -0.69 | -0.54 | — | -1.02 | — | -0.98 | -0.54 | -2.40 |
| 2016 | #91 | Jacoby Brissett | OFF | -1.23 | -0.97 | -0.70 | -1.08 | -1.56 | -0.37 | -0.07 | -2.51 |
| 2011 | #159 | Lee Smith | OFF | -1.82 | -1.32 | — | -1.08 | — | -0.30 | -0.18 | -2.89 |
| 2012 | #48 | Tavon Wilson | DEF | -0.60 | -1.39 | -1.30 | -1.13 | -1.45 | -0.62 | -0.45 | -2.92 |
| 2010 | #205 | Ted Larsen | OFF | -1.68 | -1.36 | — | -1.32 | — | -0.19 | -0.15 | -3.01 |
| 2014 | #62 | Jimmy Garoppolo | OFF | -1.61 | -1.61 | -1.58 | -1.59 | — | -0.87 | -0.17 | -3.71 |
| 2004 | #32 | Ben Watson | OFF | -1.43 | -1.35 | -2.21 | -1.87 | — | -3.05 | -2.11 | -6.11 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.