Tom Braatz
ATL · GB · Composite skill θ = +0.10 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.61 to +0.80
Evidence: 62 mapped picks across 8 draft classes, 1983–1991 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.45
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1983–1985ATLGM; reassigned to Director College Scouting after 1985
- 1987–1991GBExecutive VP Football Operations; HC Forrest Gregg had input
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | #48 | LeRoy Butler | DEF | +9.58 |
| 1988 | #7 | Sterling Sharpe | OFF | +8.68 |
| 1985 | #2 | Bill Fralic | OFF | +4.68 |
| 1987 | #41 | Johnny Holland | DEF | +2.85 |
| 1985 | #45 | Mike Gann | DEF | +2.40 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | #2 | Tony Mandarich | OFF | -4.44 |
| 1983 | #16 | Mike Pitts | DEF | -3.94 |
| 1984 | #36 | Thomas Benson | DEF | -2.87 |
| 1990 | #75 | Bobby Houston | DEF | -2.55 |
| 1990 | #186 | Lester Archambeau | DEF | -2.02 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 62 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1990 | #48 | LeRoy Butler | DEF | +2.12 | +2.78 | — | +2.90 | — | +0.39 | +8.07 | +9.58 |
| 1988 | #7 | Sterling Sharpe | OFF | +1.28 | +1.70 | — | +2.01 | — | +4.07 | +6.29 | +8.68 |
| 1985 | #2 | Bill Fralic | OFF | +0.89 | +0.98 | — | +0.39 | — | +3.22 | +3.47 | +4.68 |
| 1987 | #41 | Johnny Holland | DEF | +1.20 | +1.80 | — | +1.46 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | +2.85 |
| 1985 | #45 | Mike Gann | DEF | +1.22 | +2.00 | — | +0.98 | — | -0.26 | -0.11 | +2.40 |
| 1984 | #32 | Scott Case | DEF | +1.50 | +1.44 | — | +0.59 | — | -0.18 | -0.87 | +1.53 |
| 1989 | #142 | Chris Jacke | ST | +1.31 | -0.90 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.20 | +1.97 | +1.34 |
| 1988 | #61 | Keith Woodside | OFF | +0.82 | +1.05 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.28 |
| 1988 | #89 | Chuck Cecil | DEF | +0.38 | +0.36 | — | +0.39 | — | +1.00 | -0.06 | +1.23 |
| 1989 | #58 | Matt Brock | DEF | +0.53 | +0.77 | — | +0.53 | — | -0.11 | -0.05 | +1.10 |
| 1987 | #69 | Scott Stephen | DEF | +0.77 | +0.33 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.92 |
| 1983 | #75 | Andrew Provence | DEF | +0.95 | +0.08 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.63 |
| 1984 | #132 | Cliff Benson | OFF | +0.18 | +0.61 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| 1983 | #43 | James Britt | DEF | +0.58 | +0.19 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.48 |
| 1987 | #191 | Bill Smith | ST | -0.39 | +0.30 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 1990 | #19 | Darrell Thompson | OFF | +0.51 | +0.07 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.23 |
| 1991 | #135 | Jeff Fite | ST | -0.47 | +0.22 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| 1989 | #74 | Anthony Dilweg | OFF | -0.08 | +0.06 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1989 | #169 | Mark Hall | DEF | -0.14 | -0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 1988 | #173 | Gary Richard | DEF | -0.16 | -0.05 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 1984 | #148 | Ben Bennett | OFF | -0.18 | +0.05 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 1990 | #132 | Charles Wilson | OFF | +0.07 | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1987 | #172 | Tony Leiker | DEF | -0.38 | -0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.16 |
| 1989 | #127 | Vince Workman | OFF | +0.24 | -0.34 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.17 |
| 1991 | #149 | Walter Dean | OFF | -0.22 | -0.01 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1989 | #124 | Jeff Query | OFF | +0.28 | -0.48 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.25 |
| 1984 | #9 | Rick Bryan | DEF | +0.52 | +0.60 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.94 | -0.43 | -0.26 |
| 1989 | #87 | Jeff Graham | OFF | -0.28 | -0.07 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.27 |
| 1988 | #144 | Nate Hill | DEF | -0.38 | -0.08 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.28 |
| 1991 | #176 | Reggie Burnette | DEF | -0.38 | -0.09 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1983 | #183 | Jeff Turk | DEF | -0.46 | -0.09 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1985 | #152 | Reggie Pleasant | DEF | -0.41 | -0.12 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1988 | #34 | Shawn Patterson | DEF | +0.13 | -0.39 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.34 |
| 1984 | #163 | Dan Ralph | DEF | -0.47 | -0.09 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.35 |
| 1990 | #159 | Bryce Paup | DEF | -0.21 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.18 | -0.15 | -0.36 |
| 1987 | #145 | Willie Marshall | OFF | -0.46 | -0.10 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1991 | #169 | Frank Blevins | DEF | -0.46 | -0.11 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1987 | #4 | Brent Fullwood | OFF | -0.01 | -0.29 | — | -0.71 | — | +0.93 | -0.09 | -0.44 |
| 1991 | #164 | Joe Garten | OFF | -0.40 | -0.22 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1987 | #71 | Frankie Neal | OFF | -0.38 | -0.26 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1984 | #175 | Kirk Dodge | DEF | -0.54 | -0.17 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1990 | #18 | Tony Bennett | DEF | -0.18 | -0.22 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.22 | -0.10 | -0.58 |
| 1988 | #88 | Rollin Putzier | DEF | -0.60 | -0.25 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1987 | #89 | Lorenzo Freeman | DEF | -0.61 | -0.26 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 1991 | #67 | Don Davey | DEF | +0.16 | -0.62 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.63 |
| 1988 | #116 | Darrell Reed | DEF | -0.61 | -0.25 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 1991 | #81 | Chuck Webb | OFF | -0.58 | -0.21 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 1983 | #102 | John Harper | DEF | -0.41 | -0.36 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.69 |
| 1983 | #156 | Anthony Allen | OFF | -0.39 | -0.37 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.77 |
| 1983 | #129 | Brett Miller | OFF | +0.02 | -0.31 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.24 | -0.13 | -0.83 |
| 1984 | #94 | Rydell Malancon | DEF | -0.56 | -0.37 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.83 |
| 1987 | #61 | Dave Croston | OFF | -0.35 | -0.56 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
| 1991 | #19 | Vinnie Clark | DEF | -0.34 | -0.53 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.99 |
| 1990 | #102 | Jackie Harris | OFF | -0.65 | -0.69 | — | -0.68 | — | -0.43 | -0.24 | -1.68 |
| 1984 | #63 | Rod McSwain | DEF | -1.16 | -0.79 | — | -0.68 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -1.74 |
| 1985 | #89 | Emile Harry | OFF | -1.25 | -0.82 | — | -0.80 | — | -0.13 | -0.06 | -1.94 |
| 1991 | #35 | Esera Tuaolo | DEF | -1.14 | -0.83 | — | -0.84 | — | -0.23 | -0.10 | -1.99 |
| 1990 | #186 | Lester Archambeau | DEF | -0.75 | -1.11 | — | -1.01 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -2.02 |
| 1990 | #75 | Bobby Houston | DEF | -1.52 | -1.11 | — | -1.07 | — | -0.19 | -0.13 | -2.55 |
| 1984 | #36 | Thomas Benson | DEF | -1.02 | -1.40 | — | -1.29 | — | -0.46 | -0.27 | -2.87 |
| 1983 | #16 | Mike Pitts | DEF | -1.04 | -1.30 | — | -1.56 | — | -1.66 | -0.76 | -3.94 |
| 1989 | #2 | Tony Mandarich | OFF | -1.00 | -1.50 | — | -1.93 | — | -1.40 | -1.12 | -4.44 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.