Bruce Allen
WAS · Composite skill θ = -0.31 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.84 to +0.23
Composite θ
-0.31
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.84–+0.23
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
13%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Bad
maturity-adjusted direction probability > 80%
Evidence: 87 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 2010–2019 · 99% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.46
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2010–2019WAS
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | #76 | Terry McLaurin | OFF | +4.03 |
| 2011 | #16 | Ryan Kerrigan | DEF | +3.40 |
| 2018 | #13 | Daron Payne | DEF | +2.00 |
| 2017 | #17 | Jonathan Allen | DEF | +1.70 |
| 2013 | #85 | Jordan Reed | OFF | +1.51 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #4 | Trent Williams | OFF | -8.53 |
| 2017 | #114 | Samaje Perine | OFF | -1.98 |
| 2019 | #15 | Dwayne Haskins | OFF | -1.96 |
| 2015 | #38 | Preston Smith | DEF | -1.67 |
| 2018 | #59 | Derrius Guice | OFF | -1.59 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 87 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2019 | #76 | Terry McLaurin | OFF | +1.29 | +2.06 | +2.19 | +1.76 | +0.84 | +1.90 | -0.13 | +4.03 |
| 2011 | #16 | Ryan Kerrigan | DEF | +1.47 | +1.89 | +1.26 | +1.33 | +0.00 | +3.07 | -0.69 | +3.40 |
| 2018 | #13 | Daron Payne | DEF | +1.33 | +1.80 | +2.42 | +1.12 | -0.67 | +0.23 | -0.38 | +2.00 |
| 2017 | #17 | Jonathan Allen | DEF | +0.66 | +1.27 | +0.84 | +0.86 | +0.07 | +1.12 | -0.48 | +1.70 |
| 2013 | #85 | Jordan Reed | OFF | +0.18 | -0.01 | -0.37 | +0.50 | +1.88 | +0.88 | -0.10 | +1.51 |
| 2017 | #199 | Chase Roullier | OFF | +0.91 | +1.19 | +1.10 | +0.71 | +0.07 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.43 |
| 2010 | #103 | Perry Riley | DEF | +0.81 | +1.04 | +1.11 | +0.68 | +0.22 | -0.08 | -0.06 | +1.37 |
| 2015 | #5 | Brandon Scherff | OFF | -0.12 | +0.07 | -0.13 | -0.07 | -0.14 | +2.80 | +0.26 | +1.36 |
| 2016 | #152 | Matthew Ioannidis | DEF | +0.76 | +0.51 | +0.99 | +0.41 | -0.02 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.90 |
| 2019 | #173 | Cole Holcomb | DEF | +0.07 | +0.61 | +0.81 | +0.34 | +0.46 | -0.11 | -0.08 | +0.81 |
| 2014 | #102 | Bashaud Breeland | DEF | +0.14 | +0.69 | +1.13 | +0.20 | +0.26 | -0.16 | -0.11 | +0.74 |
| 2012 | #173 | Alfred Morris | OFF | +0.22 | +0.97 | +0.90 | +0.45 | -0.10 | -0.17 | -0.11 | +0.74 |
| 2012 | #119 | Keenan Robinson | DEF | -0.02 | +0.07 | +0.92 | +0.12 | +0.77 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.72 |
| 2011 | #253 | Chris Neild | DEF | +0.26 | +0.01 | +1.36 | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.66 |
| 2016 | #84 | Kendall Fuller | DEF | +0.57 | +0.86 | +1.25 | +0.20 | -0.03 | -0.38 | -0.26 | +0.66 |
| 2017 | #123 | Montae Nicholson | DEF | +0.13 | +0.36 | -0.18 | +0.19 | +0.69 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.51 |
| 2011 | #177 | Evan Royster | OFF | +0.29 | +0.00 | +0.88 | +0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.44 |
| 2019 | #26 | Montez Sweat | DEF | +0.08 | +0.59 | +0.10 | +0.27 | +0.64 | -0.44 | -0.17 | +0.40 |
| 2011 | #105 | Roy Helu | OFF | +0.51 | -0.09 | +1.15 | +0.32 | -0.54 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.38 |
| 2014 | #78 | Spencer Long | OFF | -0.02 | +0.06 | +0.17 | +0.12 | +0.47 | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.29 |
| 2017 | #154 | Jeremy Sprinkle | OFF | +0.74 | +0.59 | +0.94 | +0.07 | -1.05 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.23 |
| 2011 | #146 | DeJon Gomes | DEF | +0.19 | +0.04 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.20 |
| 2019 | #227 | Jimmy Moreland | DEF | +0.16 | +0.07 | +0.40 | +0.08 | -0.09 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.19 |
| 2011 | #217 | Maurice Hurt | OFF | +0.11 | +0.01 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 2011 | #79 | Leonard Hankerson | OFF | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.28 | +0.07 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.15 |
| 2015 | #95 | Matt Jones | OFF | -0.28 | -0.14 | -0.19 | +0.05 | +0.76 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.14 |
| 2014 | #142 | Ryan Grant | OFF | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.75 | -0.06 | -0.65 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.12 |
| 2018 | #197 | Shaun Dion Hamilton | DEF | +0.45 | -0.11 | -0.02 | +0.08 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.12 |
| 2015 | #141 | Martrell Spaight | DEF | +0.02 | -0.15 | +0.31 | -0.03 | +0.10 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.07 |
| 2010 | #219 | Terrence Austin | OFF | +0.08 | -0.02 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 2014 | #228 | Zach Hocker | ST | -0.44 | +0.23 | -0.61 | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2012 | #213 | Richard Crawford | DEF | -0.18 | -0.08 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2013 | #154 | Chris Thompson | OFF | +0.42 | -0.64 | +0.20 | +0.22 | -0.19 | -0.14 | -0.09 | -0.11 |
| 2011 | #213 | Brandyn Thompson | DEF | -0.26 | -0.06 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2017 | #230 | Josh Harvey-Clemons | DEF | +0.34 | -0.16 | -0.12 | +0.08 | -0.34 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2011 | #155 | Niles Paul | OFF | +0.88 | +0.04 | +0.61 | -0.39 | -0.82 | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.17 |
| 2011 | #224 | Markus White | DEF | -0.32 | -0.02 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 2012 | #141 | Adam Gettis | OFF | -0.26 | -0.39 | +0.81 | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2018 | #256 | Trey Quinn | OFF | -0.11 | +0.09 | +0.21 | -0.06 | -0.43 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2015 | #181 | Kyshoen Jarrett | DEF | -0.15 | -0.02 | -0.51 | +0.03 | +0.06 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2012 | #217 | Jordan Bernstine | DEF | -0.39 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2013 | #191 | Bacarri Rambo | DEF | -0.16 | -0.05 | +0.37 | -0.01 | -0.57 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2010 | #229 | Erik Cook | OFF | -0.22 | -0.15 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2018 | #109 | Troy Apke | DEF | +0.48 | -0.17 | -0.57 | -0.04 | -0.26 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.28 |
| 2017 | #235 | Joshua Holsey | DEF | -0.18 | -0.15 | -0.45 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2012 | #102 | Kirk Cousins | OFF | -0.83 | -0.31 | -0.13 | -0.19 | +0.24 | +0.31 | -0.18 | -0.32 |
| 2014 | #217 | Ted Bolser | OFF | -0.50 | -0.15 | -0.76 | +0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2010 | #174 | Dennis Morris | OFF | -0.47 | -0.05 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2013 | #119 | Phillip Thomas | DEF | -0.44 | -0.18 | -0.20 | -0.09 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.38 |
| 2013 | #228 | Jawan Jamison | OFF | -0.43 | -0.01 | -0.46 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2010 | #231 | Selvish Capers | OFF | -0.36 | -0.20 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2011 | #41 | Jarvis Jenkins | DEF | -0.41 | -0.21 | -0.28 | -0.40 | +0.51 | -0.23 | -0.10 | -0.41 |
| 2019 | #206 | Kelvin Harmon | OFF | -0.20 | +0.00 | -0.39 | -0.08 | -0.30 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 2015 | #112 | Arie Kouandjio | OFF | -0.32 | -0.31 | -0.75 | -0.20 | +0.31 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.44 |
| 2019 | #131 | Wes Martin | OFF | -0.01 | -0.29 | -0.52 | -0.25 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.49 |
| 2013 | #162 | Brandon Jenkins | DEF | -0.40 | -0.16 | -0.67 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2019 | #253 | Jordan Brailford | DEF | -0.51 | -0.15 | -0.51 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2013 | #51 | David Amerson | DEF | -0.27 | -0.11 | +0.26 | -0.25 | -0.58 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.53 |
| 2016 | #242 | Keith Marshall | OFF | -0.48 | -0.06 | -0.66 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2012 | #71 | Josh LeRibeus | OFF | -0.50 | -0.64 | -0.02 | -0.45 | +0.24 | -0.14 | -0.08 | -0.60 |
| 2015 | #182 | Tevin Mitchel | DEF | -0.54 | -0.19 | -0.73 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2017 | #209 | Robert Davis | OFF | -0.43 | -0.14 | -0.70 | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 2014 | #186 | Lache Seastrunk | OFF | -0.53 | -0.09 | -0.72 | -0.15 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 2015 | #105 | Jamison Crowder | OFF | +0.16 | -0.47 | -0.08 | -0.20 | +0.01 | -0.49 | -0.28 | -0.62 |
| 2015 | #187 | Evan Spencer | OFF | -0.52 | -0.16 | -0.73 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 2016 | #232 | Steven Daniels | DEF | -0.56 | -0.21 | -0.77 | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 2016 | #187 | Nate Sudfeld | OFF | -0.62 | -0.36 | -0.05 | -0.36 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.73 |
| 2018 | #241 | Greg Stroman | DEF | -0.43 | -0.44 | -0.19 | -0.35 | -0.47 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.81 |
| 2011 | #178 | Aldrick Robinson | OFF | -0.19 | -0.55 | +0.17 | -0.40 | -0.73 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.82 |
| 2019 | #153 | Ross Pierschbacher | OFF | -0.59 | -0.52 | -0.49 | -0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.94 |
| 2016 | #22 | Josh Doctson | OFF | -0.29 | -0.18 | -0.15 | -0.45 | -0.79 | -0.17 | -0.08 | -0.95 |
| 2015 | #222 | Austin Reiter | OFF | -0.88 | -0.66 | +0.41 | -0.54 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.95 |
| 2014 | #66 | Morgan Moses | OFF | +0.18 | +0.67 | +0.35 | +0.06 | -0.52 | -1.37 | -0.90 | -0.96 |
| 2014 | #47 | Trent Murphy | DEF | -0.25 | -0.44 | +0.16 | -0.38 | -1.00 | -0.24 | -0.15 | -1.06 |
| 2016 | #53 | Su'a Cravens | DEF | -0.74 | -0.62 | -0.41 | -0.43 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -1.09 |
| 2018 | #163 | Tim Settle | DEF | +0.28 | -0.75 | -0.36 | -0.51 | -0.97 | -0.12 | -0.06 | -1.10 |
| 2019 | #112 | Bryce Love | OFF | -0.82 | -0.37 | -1.55 | -0.39 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.36 |
| 2018 | #74 | Geron Christian | OFF | -0.72 | -0.87 | -0.93 | -0.69 | -0.11 | -0.25 | -0.13 | -1.43 |
| 2017 | #49 | Ryan Anderson | DEF | +0.01 | -0.81 | -0.44 | -0.55 | -1.36 | -0.19 | -0.11 | -1.52 |
| 2017 | #81 | Fabian Moreau | DEF | -0.21 | -0.73 | -0.47 | -0.66 | -0.72 | -0.44 | -0.30 | -1.53 |
| 2012 | #193 | Tom Compton | OFF | -0.67 | -1.14 | -0.53 | -1.02 | -0.12 | -0.24 | -0.19 | -1.57 |
| 2012 | #2 | Robert Griffin III | OFF | -0.74 | -0.92 | -0.53 | -0.76 | -0.87 | +0.13 | -0.24 | -1.59 |
| 2018 | #59 | Derrius Guice | OFF | -0.85 | -0.54 | -1.68 | -0.47 | — | -0.14 | -0.06 | -1.59 |
| 2015 | #38 | Preston Smith | DEF | -0.37 | -0.43 | -0.30 | -0.58 | -0.26 | -1.19 | -0.57 | -1.67 |
| 2019 | #15 | Dwayne Haskins | OFF | -0.52 | -0.56 | -1.01 | -0.72 | -1.61 | -0.17 | -0.02 | -1.96 |
| 2017 | #114 | Samaje Perine | OFF | -1.07 | -0.82 | -0.74 | -0.85 | -0.60 | -0.47 | -0.27 | -1.98 |
| 2010 | #4 | Trent Williams | OFF | -0.74 | -0.34 | -1.26 | -0.70 | -0.21 | -4.94 | -9.63 | -8.53 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.