Bruce Allen
TB · Composite skill θ = -0.44 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.07 to +0.20
Evidence: 47 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2004–2008 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.10
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2004–2008TBGM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | #106 | Tanard Jackson | DEF | +2.04 |
| 2006 | #59 | Jeremy Trueblood | OFF | +1.57 |
| 2005 | #36 | Barrett Ruud | DEF | +1.19 |
| 2007 | #68 | Quincy Black | DEF | +1.01 |
| 2008 | #175 | Geno Hayes | DEF | +0.90 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | #160 | Josh Johnson | OFF | -5.91 |
| 2008 | #20 | Aqib Talib | DEF | -3.61 |
| 2004 | #111 | Will Allen | DEF | -1.62 |
| 2005 | #71 | Alex Smith | OFF | -1.58 |
| 2008 | #58 | Dexter Jackson | OFF | -0.91 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 47 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2007 | #106 | Tanard Jackson | DEF | +0.78 | +1.32 | — | +1.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +2.04 |
| 2006 | #59 | Jeremy Trueblood | OFF | +1.11 | +1.19 | — | +0.56 | — | -0.17 | -0.10 | +1.57 |
| 2005 | #36 | Barrett Ruud | DEF | +0.79 | +0.69 | — | +0.65 | — | -0.23 | -0.16 | +1.19 |
| 2007 | #68 | Quincy Black | DEF | +0.99 | +0.48 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +1.01 |
| 2008 | #175 | Geno Hayes | DEF | +0.45 | +0.66 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.90 |
| 2006 | #23 | Davin Joseph | OFF | +0.67 | +1.09 | -0.31 | +0.43 | -1.78 | +1.69 | -0.31 | +0.50 |
| 2007 | #182 | Adam Hayward | DEF | +1.51 | -0.30 | +0.43 | -0.11 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.38 |
| 2008 | #83 | Jeremy Zuttah | OFF | +0.69 | +0.87 | +0.10 | +0.36 | -0.53 | -0.22 | -0.14 | +0.28 |
| 2005 | #107 | Dan Buenning | OFF | +0.08 | +0.25 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.28 |
| 2007 | #64 | Sabby Piscitelli | DEF | +0.30 | +0.07 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.28 |
| 2006 | #244 | Tim Massaquoi | OFF | -0.32 | +0.01 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| 2004 | #181 | Nate Lawrie | OFF | -0.22 | -0.07 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 2004 | #252 | Lenny Williams | DEF | -0.25 | +0.08 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 2005 | #225 | Paris Warren | OFF | -0.09 | +0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| 2006 | #202 | T.J. Williams | OFF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 2007 | #245 | Marcus Hamilton | DEF | -0.24 | +0.04 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 2005 | #253 | J.R. Russell | OFF | -0.24 | +0.09 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 2006 | #235 | Justin Phinisee | DEF | -0.29 | +0.04 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2004 | #146 | Jeb Terry | OFF | +0.28 | -0.25 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 2004 | #228 | Casey Cramer | OFF | -0.30 | +0.11 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2005 | #141 | Donte Nicholson | DEF | -0.07 | -0.12 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 2007 | #246 | Kenneth Darby | OFF | -0.28 | +0.10 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 2006 | #156 | Julian Jenkins | DEF | -0.13 | -0.07 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 2007 | #35 | Arron Sears | OFF | -0.11 | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.08 |
| 2005 | #221 | Rick Razzano | OFF | -0.32 | +0.09 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2007 | #141 | Greg Peterson | DEF | -0.18 | -0.11 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2004 | #206 | Mark Jones | OFF | +0.20 | -0.14 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2008 | #238 | Cory Boyd | OFF | -0.33 | +0.08 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2006 | #241 | Charles Bennett | DEF | -0.29 | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2004 | #15 | Michael Clayton | OFF | +0.48 | +0.18 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.37 | -0.21 | -0.25 |
| 2005 | #155 | Larry Brackins | OFF | -0.41 | -0.07 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2007 | #214 | Chris Denman | OFF | -0.35 | -0.19 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2008 | #115 | Dre Moore | DEF | -0.38 | -0.19 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2006 | #90 | Maurice Stovall | OFF | +0.36 | -0.31 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.37 |
| 2006 | #122 | Alan Zemaitis | DEF | -0.52 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 2005 | #5 | Cadillac Williams | OFF | +0.22 | +0.15 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.42 | -0.28 | -0.45 |
| 2004 | #79 | Marquis Cooper | DEF | -0.08 | -0.38 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| 2005 | #178 | Anthony Bryant | DEF | -0.47 | -0.19 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2005 | #231 | Hamza Abdullah | DEF | -0.69 | -0.31 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.76 |
| 2005 | #91 | Chris Colmer | OFF | -0.60 | -0.44 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.84 |
| 2006 | #194 | Bruce Gradkowski | OFF | -0.44 | -0.25 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.84 |
| 2007 | #4 | Gaines Adams | DEF | -0.17 | -0.38 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.84 |
| 2008 | #58 | Dexter Jackson | OFF | -0.57 | -0.44 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 2005 | #71 | Alex Smith | OFF | -0.58 | -0.32 | — | -0.76 | — | -0.48 | -0.27 | -1.58 |
| 2004 | #111 | Will Allen | DEF | +0.00 | -0.80 | — | -0.90 | — | -0.34 | -0.30 | -1.62 |
| 2008 | #20 | Aqib Talib | DEF | -1.07 | -0.89 | — | -1.20 | — | -1.56 | -1.31 | -3.61 |
| 2008 | #160 | Josh Johnson | OFF | -2.54 | -2.47 | — | -2.96 | — | -0.66 | -0.22 | -5.91 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.