Tom Donahoe
BUF · Composite skill θ = +0.18 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.61 to +0.97
Evidence: 42 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2001–2005 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.15
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2001–2005BUF
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #46 | Aaron Schobel | DEF | +5.09 |
| 2003 | #111 | Terrence McGee | DEF | +3.17 |
| 2003 | #48 | Chris Kelsay | DEF | +2.81 |
| 2004 | #13 | Lee Evans | OFF | +1.86 |
| 2001 | #58 | Travis Henry | OFF | +1.49 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | #23 | Willis McGahee | OFF | -2.50 |
| 2001 | #76 | Ron Edwards | DEF | -2.31 |
| 2002 | #139 | Justin Bannan | DEF | -2.14 |
| 2002 | #4 | Mike Williams | OFF | -1.83 |
| 2003 | #228 | Mario Haggan | DEF | -1.20 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 42 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2001 | #46 | Aaron Schobel | DEF | +1.67 | +2.38 | — | +2.12 | — | +2.00 | -0.09 | +5.09 |
| 2003 | #111 | Terrence McGee | DEF | +1.39 | +1.39 | — | +1.38 | — | +0.93 | -0.13 | +3.17 |
| 2003 | #48 | Chris Kelsay | DEF | +1.79 | +1.96 | — | +1.16 | — | -0.29 | -0.15 | +2.81 |
| 2004 | #13 | Lee Evans | OFF | +1.07 | +1.41 | — | +0.93 | — | -0.39 | -0.22 | +1.86 |
| 2001 | #58 | Travis Henry | OFF | +0.21 | +0.65 | — | +0.60 | — | +0.98 | -0.06 | +1.49 |
| 2003 | #94 | Angelo Crowell | DEF | +0.93 | +0.83 | — | +0.58 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.44 |
| 2002 | #36 | Josh Reed | OFF | +1.39 | +0.36 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.21 | -0.12 | +1.06 |
| 2005 | #122 | Duke Preston | OFF | +0.92 | +0.21 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.86 |
| 2001 | #144 | Marques Sullivan | OFF | +0.35 | +0.35 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.68 |
| 2002 | #176 | Kevin Thomas | DEF | +0.56 | +0.06 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.57 |
| 2002 | #61 | Ryan Denney | DEF | +1.20 | -0.22 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.16 | -0.08 | +0.52 |
| 2001 | #95 | Jonas Jennings | OFF | +0.09 | +0.50 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | +0.45 |
| 2004 | #74 | Tim Anderson | DEF | +0.29 | +0.17 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.32 |
| 2001 | #238 | Tyrone Robertson | DEF | +0.06 | +0.10 | — | +0.17 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.25 |
| 2001 | #214 | Reggie Germany | OFF | +0.12 | +0.09 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| 2002 | #260 | Dominique Stevenson | DEF | +0.19 | +0.03 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 |
| 2004 | #214 | Jonathan Smith | OFF | +0.10 | +0.07 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 2001 | #195 | Dan O'Leary | OFF | -0.17 | -0.02 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.14 |
| 2004 | #109 | Tim Euhus | OFF | -0.02 | -0.01 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.09 |
| 2003 | #187 | Lauvale Sape | DEF | -0.09 | +0.02 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2002 | #249 | Rodney Wright | OFF | -0.22 | +0.10 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 2001 | #178 | Tony Driver | DEF | -0.08 | -0.01 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| 2002 | #251 | Jarrett Ferguson | OFF | -0.25 | +0.15 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| 2001 | #110 | Brandon Spoon | DEF | -0.25 | +0.15 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2005 | #236 | Lionel Gates | OFF | -0.30 | +0.11 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2002 | #215 | Mike Pucillo | OFF | -0.13 | +0.02 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2005 | #86 | Kevin Everett | OFF | -0.25 | -0.19 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2002 | #97 | Coy Wire | DEF | +0.56 | -0.36 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.12 | -0.09 | -0.29 |
| 2004 | #207 | Dylan McFarland | OFF | -0.25 | -0.17 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2001 | #21 | Nate Clements | DEF | -0.07 | +0.46 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.93 | -0.36 |
| 2005 | #156 | Eric King | DEF | -0.24 | -0.23 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2005 | #197 | Justin Geisinger | OFF | -0.35 | -0.19 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2005 | #55 | Roscoe Parrish | OFF | +0.54 | -0.57 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | -0.38 |
| 2001 | #196 | Jimmy Williams | DEF | -0.51 | -0.15 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2004 | #22 | J.P. Losman | OFF | -0.17 | -0.16 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.18 | -0.03 | -0.44 |
| 2003 | #151 | Ben Sobieski | OFF | -0.40 | -0.26 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2003 | #127 | Sam Aiken | OFF | +0.48 | -0.60 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.61 |
| 2003 | #228 | Mario Haggan | DEF | +0.17 | -0.94 | — | -0.75 | — | -0.08 | -0.07 | -1.20 |
| 2002 | #4 | Mike Williams | OFF | -0.41 | -0.55 | — | -0.92 | — | -0.49 | -0.36 | -1.83 |
| 2002 | #139 | Justin Bannan | DEF | -0.60 | -1.18 | — | -1.09 | — | -0.20 | -0.13 | -2.14 |
| 2001 | #76 | Ron Edwards | DEF | -0.95 | -0.91 | — | -1.09 | — | -0.38 | -0.21 | -2.31 |
| 2003 | #23 | Willis McGahee | OFF | -1.07 | -0.66 | — | -0.62 | — | -1.23 | -0.79 | -2.50 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.