Dave Ziegler
LV · Composite skill θ = -0.03 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.58 to +1.53
Evidence: 15 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2022–2023 · 43% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.34
- maturity discount
- +0.04
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2022–2023LV
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | #135 | Aidan O'Connell | OFF | +0.95 |
| 2022 | #238 | Thayer Munford | OFF | +0.94 |
| 2022 | #90 | Dylan Parham | OFF | +0.76 |
| 2023 | #100 | Tre Tucker | OFF | +0.68 |
| 2023 | #231 | Nesta Jade Silvera | DEF | +0.42 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | #7 | Tyree Wilson | DEF | -1.91 |
| 2023 | #70 | Byron Young | DEF | -0.76 |
| 2022 | #175 | Matthew Butler | DEF | -0.39 |
| 2022 | #122 | Zamir White | OFF | -0.28 |
| 2023 | #35 | Michael Mayer | OFF | -0.19 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 15 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2023 | #135 | Aidan O'Connell | OFF | +0.35 | +0.51 | +0.37 | +0.44 | +0.65 | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.95 |
| 2022 | #238 | Thayer Munford | OFF | +0.66 | +0.21 | +0.48 | +0.23 | +0.78 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.94 |
| 2022 | #90 | Dylan Parham | OFF | +0.78 | +1.14 | +0.93 | +0.46 | -0.74 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.76 |
| 2023 | #100 | Tre Tucker | OFF | +0.64 | +0.64 | +0.94 | +0.34 | -0.40 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.68 |
| 2023 | #231 | Nesta Jade Silvera | DEF | +0.10 | +0.19 | +0.35 | +0.20 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.42 |
| 2023 | #104 | Jakorian Bennett | DEF | +0.01 | +0.06 | -0.11 | +0.05 | +0.79 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.39 |
| 2023 | #170 | Christopher Smith | DEF | +0.46 | -0.08 | -0.30 | +0.10 | +0.30 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| 2023 | #203 | Amari Burney | DEF | +0.33 | +0.08 | +0.43 | +0.09 | -0.40 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| 2022 | #126 | Neil Farrell | DEF | -0.25 | -0.13 | +0.16 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2022 | #250 | Brittain Brown | OFF | -0.30 | -0.03 | +0.22 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2023 | #35 | Michael Mayer | OFF | +0.03 | +0.22 | -0.25 | -0.04 | -0.21 | -0.09 | -0.03 | -0.19 |
| 2022 | #122 | Zamir White | OFF | +0.40 | -0.01 | -0.57 | -0.07 | -0.26 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.28 |
| 2022 | #175 | Matthew Butler | DEF | -0.18 | -0.15 | -0.49 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2023 | #70 | Byron Young | DEF | -0.53 | -0.36 | -0.42 | -0.29 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| 2023 | #7 | Tyree Wilson | DEF | +0.07 | -0.98 | -0.46 | -0.86 | -1.75 | -0.18 | -0.10 | -1.91 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.