Jim Kensil
NYJ · Composite skill θ = -0.47 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.20 to +0.25
Evidence: 68 mapped picks across 9 draft classes, 1980–1988 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.16
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1988NYJPresident + GM through 1988
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | #10 | Al Toon | OFF | +4.60 |
| 1983 | #24 | Ken O'Brien | OFF | +3.71 |
| 1988 | #63 | Erik McMillan | DEF | +2.92 |
| 1980 | #69 | Lance Mehl | DEF | +2.78 |
| 1984 | #64 | Kyle Clifton | DEF | +2.28 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 | #51 | Reggie McElroy | OFF | -4.32 |
| 1982 | #135 | Mark Jerue | DEF | -1.91 |
| 1984 | #37 | Jim Sweeney | OFF | -1.89 |
| 1981 | #113 | Tyrone Keys | DEF | -1.83 |
| 1981 | #30 | Marion Barber Jr. | OFF | -1.61 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 68 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1985 | #10 | Al Toon | OFF | +0.93 | +1.10 | — | +1.26 | — | +2.76 | +1.89 | +4.60 |
| 1983 | #24 | Ken O'Brien | OFF | +1.07 | +1.23 | — | +1.95 | — | +1.35 | -0.14 | +3.71 |
| 1988 | #63 | Erik McMillan | DEF | +0.94 | +0.88 | — | +0.95 | — | +2.14 | -0.03 | +2.92 |
| 1980 | #69 | Lance Mehl | DEF | +0.84 | +1.16 | — | +1.42 | — | +0.85 | -0.13 | +2.78 |
| 1984 | #64 | Kyle Clifton | DEF | +2.35 | +2.08 | — | +1.09 | — | -1.21 | -0.86 | +2.28 |
| 1980 | #40 | Darrol Ray | DEF | +0.80 | +1.25 | — | +0.89 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +1.87 |
| 1985 | #120 | Troy Benson | DEF | +0.76 | +0.92 | — | +0.54 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.36 |
| 1981 | #142 | John Woodring | DEF | +0.60 | +0.16 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.66 |
| 1981 | #60 | Ben Rudolph | DEF | +1.12 | -0.29 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.07 | -0.02 | +0.41 |
| 1981 | #169 | Kenny Neil | DEF | +0.08 | +0.16 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.39 |
| 1983 | #51 | Johnny Hector | OFF | +1.16 | -0.44 | — | +0.57 | — | -0.76 | -0.37 | +0.37 |
| 1987 | #187 | Gerald Nichols | DEF | +0.68 | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| 1984 | #176 | Harry Hamilton | DEF | +0.05 | +0.32 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.13 |
| 1982 | #23 | Bob Crable | DEF | +0.31 | +0.14 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.17 | -0.09 | +0.10 |
| 1988 | #146 | Paul Frase | DEF | +0.61 | +0.02 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | -0.03 |
| 1982 | #191 | Tom Coombs | OFF | -0.14 | -0.11 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 1980 | #95 | Jesse Johnson | DEF | +0.36 | -0.22 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.10 |
| 1987 | #21 | Roger Vick | OFF | +0.10 | +0.18 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.15 |
| 1987 | #161 | Tracy Martin | OFF | -0.13 | -0.06 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1988 | #172 | Gary Patton | OFF | -0.42 | +0.01 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1988 | #74 | James Hasty | DEF | +0.03 | +0.98 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.92 | -0.76 | -0.35 |
| 1987 | #42 | Alex Gordon | DEF | -0.30 | +0.12 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | -0.39 |
| 1982 | #107 | George Floyd | DEF | -0.29 | -0.23 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 1982 | #79 | Dwayne Crutchfield | OFF | -0.34 | -0.10 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 1980 | #178 | Bobby Batton | OFF | -0.35 | -0.09 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1983 | #78 | Jo-Jo Townsell | OFF | +0.69 | -0.54 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.18 | -0.08 | -0.44 |
| 1988 | #119 | Mike Withycombe | OFF | -0.27 | -0.30 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1983 | #163 | Vincent White | OFF | -0.51 | -0.07 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1986 | #22 | Mike Haight | OFF | +0.00 | -0.11 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.21 | -0.11 | -0.45 |
| 1986 | #189 | Bob White | OFF | -0.41 | -0.22 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1980 | #190 | Bennie Leverett | OFF | -0.52 | -0.07 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1982 | #163 | Lonell Phea | OFF | -0.50 | -0.13 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1985 | #124 | Brian Luft | DEF | -0.54 | -0.17 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1983 | #136 | John Walker | DEF | -0.54 | -0.16 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1985 | #134 | Tony Smith | OFF | -0.51 | -0.15 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1983 | #190 | Darrin Newbold | DEF | -0.52 | -0.15 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1980 | #152 | Tom Schremp | DEF | -0.57 | -0.18 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1981 | #3 | Freeman McNeil | OFF | +0.78 | +0.10 | — | +1.09 | — | -2.45 | -1.66 | -0.53 |
| 1988 | #8 | Dave Cadigan | OFF | +0.22 | -0.16 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.29 | -0.16 | -0.55 |
| 1980 | #149 | George Visger | DEF | -0.57 | -0.19 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 1983 | #105 | Wes Howell | OFF | -0.68 | -0.32 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 1984 | #122 | Tron Armstrong | OFF | -0.56 | -0.19 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 1985 | #151 | Jeff Deaton | OFF | -0.50 | -0.31 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1984 | #91 | Bobby Bell | DEF | -0.38 | -0.33 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.63 |
| 1986 | #132 | Ron Hadley | DEF | -0.60 | -0.23 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 1985 | #94 | Doug Allen | OFF | -0.62 | -0.27 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 1985 | #40 | Lester Lyles | DEF | -0.42 | -0.34 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.73 |
| 1984 | #39 | Glenn Dennison | OFF | -0.53 | -0.39 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.78 |
| 1986 | #105 | Rogers Alexander | DEF | -0.65 | -0.31 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.78 |
| 1987 | #129 | Kirby Jackson | DEF | -0.71 | -0.33 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.78 |
| 1980 | #2 | Lam Jones | OFF | +0.31 | -0.36 | — | -0.62 | — | -0.24 | -0.13 | -0.83 |
| 1981 | #86 | Al Washington | DEF | -0.43 | -0.45 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 1987 | #75 | Onzy Elam | DEF | -0.54 | -0.41 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.86 |
| 1980 | #123 | Jim Zidd | DEF | -0.73 | -0.35 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.89 |
| 1986 | #79 | Tim Crawford | DEF | -0.75 | -0.41 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.96 |
| 1984 | #10 | Russell Carter | DEF | -0.31 | -0.23 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.17 | -0.10 | -0.98 |
| 1984 | #149 | Tony Paige | OFF | -0.19 | -0.31 | — | -0.67 | — | -0.16 | -0.09 | -1.04 |
| 1985 | #166 | Rich Miano | DEF | -0.28 | -0.36 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.18 | -0.14 | -1.05 |
| 1988 | #37 | Terry Williams | DEF | -0.56 | -0.57 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.06 |
| 1984 | #15 | Ron Faurot | DEF | -0.54 | -0.53 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.15 |
| 1986 | #49 | Doug Williams | OFF | -0.80 | -0.68 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.31 |
| 1980 | #47 | Ralph Clayton | OFF | -0.90 | -0.59 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.35 |
| 1985 | #67 | Donnie Elder | DEF | -0.89 | -0.75 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -1.53 |
| 1981 | #30 | Marion Barber Jr. | OFF | +0.45 | -0.85 | — | -1.02 | — | -0.55 | -0.24 | -1.61 |
| 1981 | #113 | Tyrone Keys | DEF | -1.25 | -0.80 | — | -0.74 | — | -0.10 | -0.04 | -1.83 |
| 1984 | #37 | Jim Sweeney | OFF | +0.62 | +1.36 | — | +0.15 | — | -3.59 | -2.48 | -1.89 |
| 1982 | #135 | Mark Jerue | DEF | -1.27 | -0.82 | — | -0.79 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -1.91 |
| 1982 | #51 | Reggie McElroy | OFF | -0.88 | -0.71 | — | -1.27 | — | -2.76 | -1.74 | -4.32 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.