Tom Flores
SEA · Composite skill θ = -0.59 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.44 to +0.26
Evidence: 5 mapped picks across 1 draft classes, 1994–1994 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.09
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1994–1994SEAHC + president; fired Dec 1994
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | #202 | Carlester Crumpler | OFF | +1.27 |
| 1994 | #73 | Lamar Smith | OFF | -1.86 |
| 1994 | #110 | Larry Whigham | DEF | -2.00 |
| 1994 | #8 | Sam Adams | DEF | -4.21 |
| 1994 | #36 | Kevin Mawae | OFF | -5.59 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | #36 | Kevin Mawae | OFF | -5.59 |
| 1994 | #8 | Sam Adams | DEF | -4.21 |
| 1994 | #110 | Larry Whigham | DEF | -2.00 |
| 1994 | #73 | Lamar Smith | OFF | -1.86 |
| 1994 | #202 | Carlester Crumpler | OFF | +1.27 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 5 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1994 | #202 | Carlester Crumpler | OFF | +1.08 | +0.68 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.27 |
| 1994 | #73 | Lamar Smith | OFF | -0.67 | -1.05 | — | -0.73 | — | -0.34 | -0.20 | -1.86 |
| 1994 | #110 | Larry Whigham | DEF | -1.33 | -0.89 | — | -0.80 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | -2.00 |
| 1994 | #8 | Sam Adams | DEF | -0.82 | -0.91 | — | -1.49 | — | -2.24 | -1.46 | -4.21 |
| 1994 | #36 | Kevin Mawae | OFF | -1.81 | -1.31 | — | -1.87 | — | -2.39 | -1.93 | -5.59 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.