Omar Khan
PIT · Composite skill θ = +0.01 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.73 to +1.74
Evidence: 21 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 2023–2025 · 25% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.01
- maturity discount
- -0.02
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2023–2025PITPromoted May 2022; first draft 2023
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | #49 | Keeanu Benton | DEF | +0.99 |
| 2023 | #251 | Spencer Anderson | OFF | +0.93 |
| 2024 | #119 | Mason McCormick | OFF | +0.90 |
| 2025 | #185 | Will Howard | OFF | +0.65 |
| 2023 | #93 | Darnell Washington | OFF | +0.54 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | #21 | Derrick Harmon | DEF | -0.53 |
| 2024 | #20 | Troy Fautanu | OFF | -0.52 |
| 2024 | #84 | Roman Wilson | OFF | -0.36 |
| 2023 | #14 | Broderick Jones | OFF | -0.35 |
| 2025 | #83 | Kaleb Johnson | OFF | -0.28 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 21 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2023 | #49 | Keeanu Benton | DEF | +0.47 | +0.63 | +0.56 | +0.38 | +0.55 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.99 |
| 2023 | #251 | Spencer Anderson | OFF | +0.74 | +0.16 | +0.36 | +0.17 | +0.86 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.93 |
| 2024 | #119 | Mason McCormick | OFF | +0.43 | +0.60 | +0.80 | +0.38 | +0.22 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.90 |
| 2025 | #185 | Will Howard | OFF | +0.22 | +0.38 | +0.60 | +0.25 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.65 |
| 2023 | #93 | Darnell Washington | OFF | +0.56 | +0.48 | +0.39 | +0.28 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.01 | +0.54 |
| 2025 | #226 | Carson Bruener | DEF | +0.30 | +0.18 | +0.46 | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.43 |
| 2023 | #241 | Cory Trice | DEF | +0.03 | +0.21 | +0.39 | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.42 |
| 2023 | #32 | Joey Porter Jr. | DEF | +0.27 | +0.49 | +0.58 | +0.11 | -0.10 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.40 |
| 2025 | #229 | Donte Kent | DEF | -0.03 | +0.25 | +0.38 | +0.20 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.40 |
| 2024 | #51 | Zach Frazier | OFF | +0.15 | +0.31 | +0.30 | +0.12 | +0.22 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.39 |
| 2023 | #132 | Nick Herbig | DEF | +0.51 | +0.06 | +0.39 | +0.21 | -0.14 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.34 |
| 2025 | #164 | Yahya Black | DEF | +0.28 | +0.26 | +0.64 | +0.21 | -0.46 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.26 |
| 2024 | #178 | Logan Lee | DEF | -0.07 | +0.08 | -0.12 | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 2024 | #195 | Ryan Watts | ST | -0.22 | +0.09 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2025 | #123 | Jack Sawyer | DEF | +0.18 | +0.11 | +0.42 | +0.13 | -0.83 | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 2024 | #98 | Payton Wilson | DEF | +0.30 | +0.01 | +0.61 | +0.09 | -1.17 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2025 | #83 | Kaleb Johnson | OFF | -0.13 | -0.01 | -0.39 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 2023 | #14 | Broderick Jones | OFF | +0.09 | -0.04 | +0.03 | -0.16 | -0.37 | -0.15 | -0.06 | -0.35 |
| 2024 | #84 | Roman Wilson | OFF | -0.14 | -0.07 | -0.50 | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2024 | #20 | Troy Fautanu | OFF | -0.38 | -0.36 | -0.44 | -0.38 | +0.22 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.52 |
| 2025 | #21 | Derrick Harmon | DEF | -0.36 | -0.30 | -0.28 | -0.36 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.