Mark Hatley
CHI · Composite skill θ = +0.69 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.07 to +1.44
Evidence: 40 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 1997–2000 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.23
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1997–2000CHIVP Player Personnel
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | #9 | Brian Urlacher | DEF | +12.28 |
| 1998 | #64 | Olin Kreutz | OFF | +7.52 |
| 2000 | #39 | Mike Brown | DEF | +3.44 |
| 1999 | #147 | Jerry Azumah | DEF | +2.98 |
| 2000 | #174 | Paul Edinger | ST | +1.62 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | #157 | Chris Draft | DEF | -3.44 |
| 1999 | #48 | Russell Davis | DEF | -2.11 |
| 1998 | #189 | Patrick Mannelly | OFF | -1.82 |
| 1998 | #5 | Curtis Enis | OFF | -1.20 |
| 1999 | #253 | Jim Finn | OFF | -1.08 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 40 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2000 | #9 | Brian Urlacher | DEF | +1.59 | +2.40 | — | +3.92 | — | +6.37 | +6.34 | +12.28 |
| 1998 | #64 | Olin Kreutz | OFF | +1.97 | +2.78 | — | +1.68 | — | +5.55 | +1.37 | +7.52 |
| 2000 | #39 | Mike Brown | DEF | +0.60 | +1.30 | — | +1.19 | — | +0.72 | +1.87 | +3.44 |
| 1999 | #147 | Jerry Azumah | DEF | +1.74 | +0.94 | — | +1.12 | — | +1.07 | -0.02 | +2.98 |
| 2000 | #174 | Paul Edinger | ST | +1.38 | +0.14 | — | +0.87 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.62 |
| 2000 | #254 | Michael Green | DEF | +0.92 | +0.62 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | +1.11 |
| 2000 | #69 | Dez White | OFF | +0.64 | +0.38 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.71 |
| 1999 | #106 | Warrick Holdman | DEF | +0.23 | +0.52 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | +0.67 |
| 1999 | #78 | Marty Booker | OFF | +0.13 | +0.31 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.73 | -0.23 | +0.60 |
| 2000 | #87 | Dustin Lyman | OFF | +0.71 | +0.30 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.60 |
| 1998 | #94 | Alonzo Mayes | OFF | +0.31 | +0.52 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.59 |
| 1998 | #232 | Moses Moreno | OFF | +0.13 | +0.30 | — | +0.22 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.44 |
| 1997 | #233 | Marvin Thomas | DEF | -0.23 | +0.11 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 1999 | #144 | Khari Samuel | DEF | +0.23 | -0.12 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| 2000 | #125 | Reggie Austin | DEF | -0.03 | -0.01 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| 1998 | #35 | Tony Parrish | DEF | -0.06 | +0.50 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.26 | -0.19 | +0.06 |
| 1997 | #141 | Van Hiles | DEF | -0.03 | -0.05 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 1997 | #210 | Mike Miano | DEF | -0.27 | +0.08 | — | +0.10 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 1997 | #196 | Shawn Swayda | DEF | -0.29 | +0.06 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 1999 | #221 | Sulecio Sanford | OFF | -0.25 | +0.08 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 1997 | #201 | Ricky Parker | DEF | -0.30 | +0.04 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 1999 | #184 | Rashard Cook | DEF | -0.33 | +0.01 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2000 | #170 | Frank Murphy | OFF | -0.35 | +0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1997 | #105 | Darnell Autry | OFF | -0.21 | -0.03 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2000 | #223 | James Cotton | DEF | -0.35 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1997 | #200 | Richard Hogans | DEF | -0.38 | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1998 | #217 | Chad Overhauser | OFF | -0.28 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.25 |
| 1999 | #71 | D'Wayne Bates | OFF | -0.05 | -0.24 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1999 | #143 | Jerry Wisne | OFF | -0.26 | -0.23 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1997 | #38 | John Allred | OFF | -0.05 | -0.41 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.54 |
| 1999 | #12 | Cade McNown | OFF | -0.02 | -0.28 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 1999 | #111 | Rosevelt Colvin | DEF | -0.27 | -0.16 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.17 | -0.14 | -0.62 |
| 1997 | #108 | Marcus Robinson | OFF | -0.30 | -0.29 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.18 | -0.11 | -0.64 |
| 1999 | #66 | Rex Tucker | OFF | -0.41 | -0.31 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | -0.87 |
| 1997 | #69 | Bob Sapp | OFF | -0.64 | -0.50 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.94 |
| 1999 | #253 | Jim Finn | OFF | -0.84 | -0.37 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.08 |
| 1998 | #5 | Curtis Enis | OFF | -0.16 | -0.54 | — | -0.75 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | -1.20 |
| 1998 | #189 | Patrick Mannelly | OFF | +3.10 | -2.38 | — | -1.71 | — | -0.46 | -0.47 | -1.82 |
| 1999 | #48 | Russell Davis | DEF | -1.27 | -0.93 | — | -0.88 | — | -0.18 | -0.08 | -2.11 |
| 1998 | #157 | Chris Draft | DEF | -1.95 | -1.45 | — | -1.52 | — | -0.22 | -0.21 | -3.44 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.